Posted on 03/24/2023 3:00:52 AM PDT by grundle
The solution to escalating crime is very straightforward. There is no philosophy to it. No “root causes” B.S. Just mathematics.
Maybe you have heard of the 80-20 rule. It’s a pretty basic concept that states 80 percent of all outcomes are derived from 20 percent of causes. It even has a name, the Pareto principle or Pareto distribution.
In my consulting business, I was always amazed at how closely the 80-20 rule would describe reality. Eighty percent of your sales come from the top 20 percent of your customers. This was true in every company for which I ever worked. It might be 75- 25 or 85-15 but if you want a good estimation of most things, 80-20 is a good place to start.
Eighty percent of all chocolate is consumed by 20 percent of consumers. Eighty percent of all booze is consumed by the top 20 percent of consumers. Eighty percent of all auto accidents are caused by 20 percent of the drivers. It’s just the way it works.
So if you want to have the maximum impact with the least effort, you focus on those 20 percent.
One area where this concept falls apart is crime, especially violent crime. If violent crime followed the same pattern, 20 percent of the criminals would commit 80 percent of the crimes.
But it is far more skewed than that. It’s more like five percent of criminals committing 95 percent of the violent crimes. From a crime fighting perspective this is actually good news. By focusing on this five percent—and taking them off the streets—a huge reduction in violent crime is possible. It’s really quite simple.
You would weep—then spit and curse—when realizing how small a slice of the population commit the vast majority of all rapes. All these women’s lifelong pain, anguish, and fear can be traced to a miniscule percentage of criminals.
And although it is anecdotal, it seems more and more liberals are tired of having their street-parked cars broken into. In many of these neighborhoods, it seems it is a 100 percent probability and one that will be burgled over and over again. Again, these victims would weep—then curse—if they knew how small of a group of criminals are committing almost all of this mayhem.
But the solution is very straightforward. There is no philosophy to it. No “root causes” B.S. Just mathematics.
If you want to reduce crime, take the 5 percent off the streets and it is a certainty that crime will fall by a tremendous amount.
It’s no more complicated than that. If politicians don’t take this surefire, science-bound way to reduce crime and protect citizens, one must ask them what their true goals are—because reducing crime and protecting the vulnerable certainly isn’t one of them.
Fox Butterfield, it that you?
The increase in incarceration in the 90s was a direct cause of the halving of the crime and murder rates in this country.
The reversal of that....the “decarceration” movement has led directly to rime and murder rates rising again in the last few years.
The solution in this as in most things is obvious. Do exactly the opposite of what Leftists advocate.
That is an interesting and compelling statistic ... for crime, instead of 20/80, the Pareto rule skews to 5/95. 95% of violent crime is committed by 5% of criminals. In a normal society without “woke” prosecutors, when one of the 5% is arrested, the prosecutor and the judge would see his lengthy “rap sheet” and make sure he is put away. But no ... It’s way too complicated when we consider diversity, racism and fairness.
Good article.
Had to look that one up. My memory is....
Adam Bragg, who is engaged in a pointless and unlawful Ahab-like pursuit of Donald Trump, charged elderly bodega clerk Jose Alba with murder for defending himself from a violent assault. But that’s okay with Joyless Behar. After all, the old man should have taken a beat down he deserved for trying to make a few bucks working night shift in bodega. Why didn’t he get a nice cushy safe f***ing job like Joyless Behar?
80% of everything is carp
Never sit next to statistician or commit a social science.
For congress 80% of the problems are caused by 80% of the idiots elected. Reducing that 80% is pretty simple.
Bookmark for later.
80/20?
Let’s see...why is it that the BLM movement support group is by and large responsible for the vast majority of homicides?
When you review the numbers the results are obviously skewed by these “Americans”.
The solution lays in education of the LBJ louts.
Should have three strikes and you out at both federal and state. Those strikes should be against person or property and include selling drugs. A crime against the government would not be a strike. To limit abuse.
On the positive side: put morality back in schools.
I use the 80-20 rule when shopping for ground beef.
Unfortunately, in terms of violent crime in America the 80/20 proportion (88/12 to be more precise) is uniquely off limits to discussion.
Take them off the street via capital punishment.
Consider how many robberies, muggings, thefts, etc a professional criminal would have to do per week, in order to support himself through crime.
Get these professional criminals off the streets and you reduce crime enormously.
Make it visibly unprofitable to be a professional criminal, and you reduce crime even more.
Interesting that Conlin doesn’t have the guts to state the conclusion that his argument is framing and pointing to. Tell us John, who is it you think are the 5%?
“ But the solution is very straightforward. There is no philosophy to it. No “root causes” B.S. Just mathematics. If you want to reduce crime, take the 5 percent off the streets and it is a certainty that crime will fall by a tremendous amount.”
Yes, but then it would be called racist. Bet on it.
Three strikes and off to the hog farm. Pigs gotta eat!
but in the name of equity
you make sure there are equal outcomes
no matter the behavior
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