Life on the run from justice, or dying in prison at the Hague like Milosevic, will be the fate of many Russian war criminals.
Posted on 12/01/2022 7:22:09 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
@WarMonitor3 11m
“Russian forces have withdrawn some of its units from Mykhailivka, Polohy and Inzhenerne (South and Southeast of Zaporizhzhia City).
This is due to mass casualties taken in recent precision strikes.”
Life on the run from justice, or dying in prison at the Hague like Milosevic, will be the fate of many Russian war criminals.
“counter artillery fire is a real thing”
In the absence of other orders, enemy Artillery is generally an Artilleryman’s number one priority for fire.
Artillery is the biggest killer on the battlefield, and generally the the biggest killer of Artillerymen. They spend a lot of thought and effort on counter battery.
Along with “shoot and scoot”, “distributed fires” makes counter battery difficult. Barrages from massed artillery invite return fire, so a howitzer battery (especially towed guns) is widely distributed, sometimes miles apart, receiving fire control missions from a central command center.
In an artillery war, the best (and sometimes only) way to kill artillery is counter-battery fire. The counter-battery kills are difficult to confirm.
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But the reputation that the ukes and their western weapons now have is for accurate counter battery. basically the drones or other devices find the coordinates for whatever and communicate those directly to the artillery piece. or in a slower routine —the coordinates are sent to a third party which then gives the coordinates to the artillery piece.
either way a couple rounds should take out the artillery piece.
Then they move on to the next artillery piece.
Even with the slower rate of uke artillery fire —the ukes should be taking out whole sections of the russian artillery for portions of the front.
But that does not appear to be happening.
Instead we have this static front war. the two sides fire continuously at each other but nothing much changes.
Can russian artillery fire on uke positions without itself coming under uke guns? I think not. But maybe you all know better.
Monday, December 5th, is supposed to begin the European embargo of Russian crude oil, and a proposed price cap for other Russian customers.
(https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EU-Agrees-To-60-Oil-Price-Cap.html)
“The European Union tentatively agreed to set the price cap on Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel, an EU diplomat told Reuters on Thursday.
The deal must first be agreed to by Poland, who had pushed for capping Russian crude oil prices at the lowest level possible, then by all EU governments by writing by the Friday deadline.”
This is basically correct.
The accuracy of the GPS coordinates given to the counter battery artillery piece determines the accuracy of the shot.
In the current battlefield situation, the drones that are providing surveillance and video, including Mavic 3s (picture below), provide highly accurate GPS coordinates. However they don't have the range to fly to where the Russian artillery would be located.
Most of the videos of "One shot One Kill" show armored vehicles or buildings being destroyed.
The counter battery radars simply do not have the accuracy of the drones. A 50 foot error in GPS coordinates could produce a miss, and without real-time surveillance, there is no way to correct. In that situation, the counter-battery would lay down a "pattern".
I believe most of the UKR counter battery is being performed by HIMARs rockets or "guided" ER shells like Excalibur.
Terminal guidance will ensure "One shot one kill".
Even with the slower rate of uke artillery fire —the ukes should be taking out whole sections of the russian artillery for portions of the front.
But that does not appear to be happening.
It's not happening because of "shoot & scoot".
Can russian artillery fire on uke positions without itself coming under uke guns?
That's the $64,000 question.
UKR does not have enough HIMARs to cover the entire front.
ckilmer...thanks for your post.
BeauBo...please expand or correct anything I have said. Send more artillery!
I have been wondering about the counter battery equation in this war for some time as well. It has been such an Artillery heavy conflict, that countering Artillery has been one of the central challenges. Because it is so important, they are likely careful about classifying the specifics about how it is going.
HIMARS seemed to help significantly reduce the overwhelming Russian Artillery advantage, when it showed up in theater, but more is obviously needed.
I really don’t know what the problem is, but my leading theories are the sheer relative quantity of Russian guns, and the technical ability to get accurate and timely targeting data to the Ukrainian guns.
The War in Ukraine guy has often criticized Ukrainian Command for not allocating resources for counter battery, but they may just have not had the budget to give.
The Ukrainian Army has had to absorb a crushing amount of Artillery fire, in a kind of “Rope a Dope” struggle, of waiting for the Russian Artillery to punch itself out, due to gradual attrition. It has been a toe to toe slugfest, with a much bigger opponent.
I’d love to see a “Silver bullet” solution sweep the Russian Artillery from the battlefield (maybe a bunch of better drones, with long range and duration, that can designate targets right into some fire control system). In the absence of a “Silver Bullet” technical solution, it looks like Russian Artillery is on track to punch itself out during 2023, with quality declining as it does.
If we cannot, or will not provide a near term technical solution, the current approach of providing NATO guns, ammo and training seems like it will do the job eventually, but at withering cost to Ukrainian lives and infrastructure.
The more, the sooner, the better.
Send more Artillery!
I believe that sweeping Russian Artillery from the battlefield would be one key to kicking Russia out of Ukraine.
OK "Tonto", let's talk "Silver Bullets".
More HIMARs launchers including the longer range missiles would be a great start.
Laser designating targets that others shoot at is very difficult. I speak from personal experience dropping LGBs being lased by a ground FAC.
Accurate GPS coordinates is enough, if the ordnance can be delivered quickly. Here's where Air Launched, Rocket Assisted Small Diameter Bombs would work.
The UKR MiGs would orbit, safely away from mobile SAMs, AAA, and at an altitude that would keep them safe from S-400s.
Then, when a target is assigned, GPS coordinates would then be provided. If the target is in range, the MiG pilot would arm it up and hit the pickle button. If the target is not in range. the MiG can fly at 10nm per minute and then release the SDB when in range.
I believe the best way to knock out artillery is to kill or severely injure the crews. This can be accomplished by setting the fuse for an air burst.
SDB could also stand for "Silver Damned Bullet".
Send more Artillery!
My impression was that the turkish baklavar drones could do the longer range targeting but that the ukes needed to first take out russian tracking that targeted the baklavar drones.
For a time we heard that the ukes had mastered the the takeout of russian ground radar tracking in the Kherson region. and that that enabled the ukes to send in the baklavar drones. for targeting.
Then that story died.
Something happened. The russians did something or the ukes didn’t something. Or something changed. Whatever, the solution to the artillery problem disappeared.
Anyone know what happened? or how that could be changed/upgraded?
You mean the Turkish Bayraktar TB2? Baklava is a Turkish pastry.
TB2s are not artillery dedicated like the Russian Orlaon-10 or Orlon-30.
The UA still has no answer to the dedicated Orlon-10/30 system. Russian artillery is as deadly as ever - just that they are low (relatively) on 152mm and 122mm shells and rockets.
Other than that I have no idea what you are asking.
The question is: how do you target russian artillery—20-30 miles from the front line
Presumably the reason that so many more russian tanks have been taken out than artillery —is because the russian tanks have to get closer to the front line than the russian artillery.
Something needs to spot and radio back the coordinates for the russian artillery in real time. So the uke artillery counter battery can take out the russian artillery.
Presumeably long range reconnaissance was the job of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2. They could fly the distance that little hand held drones could not fly. Those hand held drones dropping grenades are all over the internet. But they can’t fly more than a mile or two. So the Ukes need the Longer range drones to spot the russian artillery far behind the russian lines.
The problem was that early in the war the russians figured out how to shoot down the Turkish Bayraktar TB2. They had mobile radar systems that would track them and send their coordinates to whatever ordenance they used to shoot them down.
Then this past summer there were reports from the Kherson region that ukes had learned how to take out the mobile radar systems. Once the mobile radar systems were destroyed—then the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 could be brought back into the battle space for long range reconnaisance-—presumably to take out artillery.
But that story died. The ukes are not taking out russian artillery at scale. This is a mystery. Why? Because the ukes have artillery that’s capable of precisely hitting the russian artillery. And they have the range.
Where is the problem?
You do not understand the difference between a dedicated artillery drone and an ordinary drone (no matter it’s other capabilities).
First: a dedicated drone is run by and for the artillery unit and cannot be taken away, nor can the data be given to other units - lest other units demand mission data and subvert the drone’s dedicated purpose.
Second: such a drone needs to be able to feed real time data directly to the artillery unit - such that on receiving the data, the operators need only press the fire button.
Third: the drone must have long range, long endurance, be easily launched under any weather conditions - including below freeing, and easily recovered, be cheap to manufacture (< US$10,000), have interchangeable parts which can be switched out for any similar part from any parts manufacturer.
The UA and the US do not have such a drone, nor any answer.
Here’s and overview from War in Ukraine, July 3 2022 (edited):
••Orlan-10 overview
Why it is cheap deadly effective weapon. Wings made from carbon plastic hard to detect by radar. Gasoline powered. Flies for 16 hours and can fly in cold to -30C. Small, light, cheap to make. Distance signal can travel 120km to Msta 2C19 Long Range SPG, seek out high value targets like all the western artillery: HIMARS, Krabs, Caesars, etc.
Actually cost is US$6-7,000 with equipment another $20,000. So $40,000 for the unit, The remainder is profit for manufacture and RGF. Make 200-300 a year - used in wide range of areas, not just military. Flies up to 5000m (3 miles) altitude so is expensive to shoot down.
Excellently engineered product for the job. Catapult launched and parachute landed, super easy to disassemble and so to repair - can cannibalize broken ones to make a new one; parts from different commercial manufacturers are easily interchangeable from the engine to the electronics. No military grade parts. Coke-A-Cola cap can be used for gas tank cap. Expendable UAV.
Orlon-10 has direct integration with Orc artillery in real time, artillery had digital pad and the new numbers are quickly punched in - 46 sec to 1m 15 sec to correct fire.
Now there is the addition of the Orlan-30 which is a night flier with IR capability.
Sometimes stories die because the military need them to die. They could be providing valuable information to the enemy.
Anyone know what happened? or how that could be changed/upgraded?
I believe that Russia was shooting down most of the TB-2s that were looking for artillery. The TB-2s are not as stealthy as the U.S. drones. The risk was not worth the reward.
TB-2s can carry tank killing missiles. Their most important mission, at this point in time, would be to stop or slow down any tank break-out.
They can do this by loitering on the UKR side of the FEBA, outside range of RU mobile SAMs. Then, if any tanks break out, the TB-2 could then vector to the tank's location and take them out.
Most of the above is guesswork.
Orlon-10 has direct integration with Orc artillery in real time, artillery had digital pad and the new numbers are quickly punched in - 46 sec to 1m 15 sec to correct fire.
Now there is the addition of the Orlan-30 which is a night flier with IR capability.
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This capability that you describe above is what I was arguing that the ukes should have. I’ve seen many youtubes that suggest that they do.
Are you saying the the Ukes don’t have this capability.
The 3 mile range of the Orlan-30’s as you describe then is sufficient for killing front line troops but not artillery sited further back. Ukes need to kill either the Orlan-30’s or the artillery that they support OR the communications between them.
You’re saying that none of that is happening?
If that’s true then the Uke lines are unsustainable, the Uke generals incompetant and their western advisors are totally inattentive to the situation.
Are you saying the the Ukes don’t have this capability.
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Yes definitely they do not have a dedicated artillery drone. YouTube is not very reliable - many cuts. Misleading obviously.
Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 have a 120km range, not 3 km - where you got that number who knows, but not from me.
You just do not seem to understand the purpose of an FO or the Russian drone that replaces that position. So either go bone up on actual military tactics, weapons of just leave me alone, please.
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