I have been wondering about the counter battery equation in this war for some time as well. It has been such an Artillery heavy conflict, that countering Artillery has been one of the central challenges. Because it is so important, they are likely careful about classifying the specifics about how it is going.
HIMARS seemed to help significantly reduce the overwhelming Russian Artillery advantage, when it showed up in theater, but more is obviously needed.
I really don’t know what the problem is, but my leading theories are the sheer relative quantity of Russian guns, and the technical ability to get accurate and timely targeting data to the Ukrainian guns.
The War in Ukraine guy has often criticized Ukrainian Command for not allocating resources for counter battery, but they may just have not had the budget to give.
The Ukrainian Army has had to absorb a crushing amount of Artillery fire, in a kind of “Rope a Dope” struggle, of waiting for the Russian Artillery to punch itself out, due to gradual attrition. It has been a toe to toe slugfest, with a much bigger opponent.
I’d love to see a “Silver bullet” solution sweep the Russian Artillery from the battlefield (maybe a bunch of better drones, with long range and duration, that can designate targets right into some fire control system). In the absence of a “Silver Bullet” technical solution, it looks like Russian Artillery is on track to punch itself out during 2023, with quality declining as it does.
If we cannot, or will not provide a near term technical solution, the current approach of providing NATO guns, ammo and training seems like it will do the job eventually, but at withering cost to Ukrainian lives and infrastructure.
The more, the sooner, the better.
Send more Artillery!
I believe that sweeping Russian Artillery from the battlefield would be one key to kicking Russia out of Ukraine.
OK "Tonto", let's talk "Silver Bullets".
More HIMARs launchers including the longer range missiles would be a great start.
Laser designating targets that others shoot at is very difficult. I speak from personal experience dropping LGBs being lased by a ground FAC.
Accurate GPS coordinates is enough, if the ordnance can be delivered quickly. Here's where Air Launched, Rocket Assisted Small Diameter Bombs would work.
The UKR MiGs would orbit, safely away from mobile SAMs, AAA, and at an altitude that would keep them safe from S-400s.
Then, when a target is assigned, GPS coordinates would then be provided. If the target is in range, the MiG pilot would arm it up and hit the pickle button. If the target is not in range. the MiG can fly at 10nm per minute and then release the SDB when in range.
I believe the best way to knock out artillery is to kill or severely injure the crews. This can be accomplished by setting the fuse for an air burst.
SDB could also stand for "Silver Damned Bullet".
Send more Artillery!