Posted on 11/22/2022 10:21:32 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
The US economy is in “The Deep.” Deep into yield curve inversion, that is.
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve swam deeper into inverse at -75 basis points. The deepest inversion since just before The Great Recession and housing market crash.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Current and/or impending recession is not the question, it’s how severe and long lasting it will be.
interest rates will have to go up MUCH further from here to make up for all the raising to the minimum wage and free money the government gave out during covid, and if the student loan thing ever goes through.. that will mean raising interest rates even higher.
Interest rates have to go up high enough for people to choose to lock their money in long term CD’s to pull enough money out of the economy. We are far from those levels still.
“Interest rates have to go up high enough for people to choose to lock their money in long term CD’s to pull enough money out of the economy. We are far from those levels still.”
Great comment.
At a minimum those long term CDs must exceed the current rate of inflation—that would mean they would need to be in the ten percent range.
If they get to that range, I am in....!
Economic collapse is what the traitorous Demonicrats want, to justify declaring martial law with them in charge.
“Economic collapse is what the traitorous Demonicrats want, to justify declaring martial law with them in charge.”
Who is going to enforce Martial law with a population that posses in excess of 400 million guns?
Asking for a friend.
“At a minimum those long term CDs must exceed the current rate of inflation—that would mean they would need to be in the ten percent range.
If they get to that range, I am in....!”
Me too. I recently got 4.2% on a 1 year treasury note and felt glad to get it. I do remember 12% CDs back in the Carter days.
Well, the voters wanted this, so here it comes!
Yep, I agree at 10% that would start to equal other types of investments like real estate without the risk.
There is no quantitative corelation with inversion and severity of recession.
Right now th inversion is high because FED has jacked up rates by 3.5% quickly. That has jacked up short term rates. But bond investors know the economy is going to shrink badly in the long run with push for green energy. Which is why long term rates are lower.
LOLOL where do you think the CD money bank receives goes?
Not in the bank vault! It is lent to borrowers for economic activity.
Only way money can suppress economy is when you place it under the mattress.
What you are saying is sort of true, but if a no-risk investment like a CD has a higher return than a riskier investment like a business or real estate. The bank won’t be loaning that money out to others, because no one with a brain would take a lower return on a riskier investment.
M2 has started turning. But collapse? Not even close.
Remember, M2 skyrocketed through the pandemic. Being “shocked” that it is slowing its growth rate simply indicates the author is trying to evoke an emotion from folks who don’t understand what it is.
Here is the chart…play around with the dates.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL#0
Oh my goodness. I cannot recall how many recessions I’ve lived through. Martial law hasn’t been involved with any of them. Economic collapse hadn’t been involved either.
Interest rates need to get above the PPI—which is slowing as well. Those two lines will meet around the 5% rate—some time next spring.
We are barely seeing the layoffs we need to see throughout the traditional economy; big tech counts, but when we see Ford and GM laying off 10,000…that will portend “economic calamity.”
What democrats are doing IS intentional... and insane.
They don’t have enough people to utilize martial law.
Same reason I keep saying if the people wanted all this crap to stop, it can be stopped.
There might be oceans of blood and guts, but the tyranny would stop.
There’s a reason Kings of old were deposed by the many more often then not.
If a rcession is coming interest rates should be holding steady or even being lowered.
We DON'T need layoffs!! What the hell is wrong with some of you people!!! I guess you've never been laid off.
Where did I say that?
Boy, you are so quick to shit on people, you simply read what you want.
Go back into your shed.
no, because inflation is FAR worse than a recession, FAR WORSE.
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