Ted Day! Spread Between 3M Libor And 3M Treasury Yield Rising Fast (Recession Alert!)

TED refers to the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in U.S. dollars, a measure of fear in the market.

I am still shaking my head at President Biden chastising gasoline stations for not lowering prices at the pump when refiners are near full capacity and the Biden Administration is doing nothing to increase the supply of US-source non-green energy.

Everyone needs to stop listening to media and start watching the numbers. The 10 year bond yield is not going up. Its going down. Right now its around 2.8 yield. It was over 3.2 a few weeks ago. The fed is selling bonds and mortgages and raising rates. And still the 10 year yield is less than 3.

This can only happen if other countries are buying our bonds in big amounts. Investors as a group are too small. Banks are too small. We are talking about trillions here.

When you say inflation, watch the numbers and don’t listen to the media. The dollar is stronger against the Euro, the Yen, virtually every other currency not pegged to the dollar, Gold, crypto currencies and almost all stocks around the world. The dollar is strong, not weak. Its at decades’ high verses the Euro and Yen.

So why does stuff cost more. Thats because we are disconnecting from China and Russia. Things are becoming more expensive because we are paying more for stuff that used to be supplied in part by China. And one odd thing. China is also buying up our natural resources and food. Some say that our factories are burning as well. Not sure about that. But our over spending, our over printing is not the cause because everyone is still buying our bonds and our dollars. There is no form of currency that is stronger than the dollar right now.

I have one caveat to this. The Russian Rubble which is crashing today was strong earlier and will likely get stronger as they have pegged it to gold. The Chinese Yuan is exactly the same as they have pegged it to the dollar. It should be pegged to the Euro, Yen and Dollar, but watching it over the past 6 months its clearly just pegged to the dollar. As the Euro and Yen have fallen to levels not seen in decades the Yuan dollar ratio is steady at 6.15. So China is clearly lying about being pegged to a basket of currencies. The basket clearly only contains US dollars.

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