Posted on 05/15/2022 12:54:57 PM PDT by MercyFlush
Right now as I write this there are significant elements of the Ukrainian forces located within 40km of the strategic Soviet city of Belgorod.
This city is a critical transshipment and distribution hub for all manner of logistical support for the Soviet Army that is currently trying to steal more land from Ukraine.
The foolish Soviets have left this city all but undefended as they've moved their forces to concentrate on preventing the encirclement and capture of 20,000+ orc forces at Izyum, Ukraine.
The Ukrainians don't have to even seize the city. They may not even need to cross into enemy territory at all. But by at least threatening Belgorod and taking it under artillery fire the Ukrainians can force the Soviets to move precious forces to defend the city.
The return on investment for the Ukrainians for crossing into Russia to harass this city or maybe even capture it is great. They can readily retreat across the border after their objectives in Belgorod are achieved and they will get the added benefit of secondary objectives:
1. Vladimir Putin will be humiliated for leaving a critical Soviet city vulnerable to attack. 2. Supplies to Soviet combat forces in Ukraine will be disrupted. 3. Soviet forces will be degraded yet again as a permanent force will be required to garrison and protect Belgorod from future Ukrainian incursions. 4. That permanent garrison can then be targeted by long range artillery.
Putin could of course declare war and call for a general mobilization of Soviet forces. The problem for Putin is that doing so makes Ukraine look strong and the Orcs look weak in the eyes of the Soviet people who were told to expect a short and glorious war of conquest.
The added psychological effect of this stupid war leading to the first foreign forces on Soviet soil since World War Two will be huge...and it will be blamed on the failures of Pidor Putin.
Regardless of what Ukraine decides to do here Belgorod is critical and vulnerable and it is a legitimate target.
Speaking solely as a tactical warrior, poking your opponent hard I the nose when you have the opportunity is a key to winning the fight....
What he does next will be responsive/ defensive and likely cost him combat power, agility and initiative.
Take it from him. I would.
When I asked a similar question the answer was that as long as mother Russia wasn’t threatened then Putin would have a politically hard time moving the country from a special military action to a war footing. Once Russia was threatened he could call up the reserves and he’d also have some other powers he can’t call on now. Ukraine has a delicate balancing act and they understand what works and where the red lines are better than us armchair warriors. It does appear that the way we see the war and the way most Russians (who have more limited access to the world) see it are vastly different.
+1
I think this would be a mistake, it would give the Russian Army motivation to fight that has been lacking so far.
Clearly you should be in charge of the Russians since you're so much smarter.
They would call you General Smarty Guy and give you medals.
Ukrainians could capture Belgorod and win the battle. But it would be a pyrrhic victory. Russia is a totalitarian country. They would use propaganda to fully mobilize and get the population behind the war. Putin would welcome the attack.
Ukrainians keep it a defensive war in their country. They will continue to make sure that the morale in the Russians military is low.
“Ukraine does not have enough military supplies nor men to attack Russia.”
True. But they have the men, supplies, and opportunity to attack and possibly seize a virtually undefended and critical Belgorod. They don’t even need to hold it. They can just take the city, raise the Ukrainian flag over the city hall for the photo opportunity, and then scoot.
Or they can seize the city and force the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to take it back. And then scoot.
Yes, MercyFlush?
Nothing like a punch in the face to get your opponent off his feet!
They should limit themselves to cross border raids on specific targets, as they have done so far. A full-on invasion is probably beyond their ability and isn’t necessary. The Russians are coming to them. They don’t have to go looking for them.
Trying to take a Russian city would be a mistake imo. But damaging the city so that it is less useful as a staging point has value. All such cities need to lose all their public utilities and their ability to resupply military convoys. In fact every Russian city within 50 miles of the Ukraine border should probably be a target. And every road that crosses the border as well.
“Clearly you should be in charge of the Russians since you’re so much smarter.”
The average US Army or USMC sergeant would have done an exponentially better job of movement than any of the Russian generals have done and with a boatload fewer casualties.
Is it really though? The press certainly has a history of determining what the American public hears or doesn't hear. I find we have no better, and perhaps maybe even worse filtering of the news.
“President Potato needs volunteers. Yes, MercyFlush?”
Maybe we’d get to see each other on the battlefield. I’d be fighting for the USA and you’d be fighting for Russia.
As usual.
Ukraine needs to concentrate on the upcoming Battles of Severodonetsk and Izyum, which will be key in the overall Battle of Donbas. If they can win at Izyum and Severodonetsk, Russia is at serious risk of losing the Battle of Donbas.
Of course, I’m no military tactician, so my opinion is worth what you paid for it...
Forcing the supply lines to grow longer by staging further away from the border has value.
Not my fight, and it isn’t yours, but I’d like to see you go anyway. But you won’t. As we say in Texas, you’re all hat.
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