Posted on 03/16/2022 6:19:19 PM PDT by blam
Black Sea research firm SovEcon reports that Ukraine, one of the world’s top grains exporters, will experience dramatic output declines in the 2022 harvest year due to the Russian invasion.
Ukraine’s main agricultural export products are corn and wheat. Before the invasion, Ukraine was the second-largest supplier of grains for the European Union and one of the largest suppliers for emerging markets in Asia and Africa. Breaking down the numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 10% of global wheat, 12.6% of global barley, and 15.3% of global maize.
SovEcon expects Ukraine’s 2022 corn harvest to plunge 35% from 41.9 million tons last year to 27.7 million tons this year. This year’s estimated wheat harvest has been cut to 26 million tons from an earlier outlook of 28.3 million tons, compared with 32.1 million tons last year.
SovEcon, which specializes in agricultural markets, said the regions affected by conflict account for 40% of the country’s corn and wheat production. They said plantings and yields would be impacted by fuel shortages, lack of workers and fertilizer, and fieldwork challenges due to the conflict. Also, a weather component of drought could affect wheat-producing areas.
However, the research firm says estimates are based on Russia reaching a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, allowing farmers to begin fieldwork in April as spring is around the corner.
What if the conflict continues to rage on and or for whatever reason, fieldwork in some areas cannot be completed due to shortages of equipment, fuel, seeds, fertilizer, and labor? Then wait?
Harvests could be even lower than SovEcon’s current estimates and may propel global food prices even higher. The UN projects global food prices could rise another 8-20% from current levels.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has enforced protectionist measures to ensure domestic stability of its food supply by banning wheat and other commodities exports. This move will result in higher global food prices, and countries that depend on Ukraine for their food needs may experience shortages. We explain what happens next in the ag note “Soaring Wheat Prices Leave These Countries Susceptible To Uprisings.”
… and then there’s this tweet:
Cannot stress this enough. There’s credible estimates that suggest that Ukraine’s yields in 2022 might be reduced by half. Even a 10% decline in production would have massive implications to world hunger and global stability.
Food security is national security. https://t.co/zOnyDU65n3
— Nathan Carson (@ndcarson) March 16, 2022
.
consider who could want global instability.
if you can do that, then wonder why.
We can help. Just get rid of ethanol.
What about the Wheat Harvest
There’s no way that Ukraine’s crop yield this year will be reduced by 50%. The rural areas are largely unaffected (at least not directly affected) by the actual fighting and destruction. Cost (and availability?) of fertilizer may impact the crop production somewhat but as long as the farmers have the diesel they need they should get their crops in and harvested. Just IMHO based on limited knowledge.
Now if substantial numbers of farmers and their workers left as refugees then all bets are off.
It would make our groundwater cleaner too if we took,ethanol out of gas. Two-stroke engines everywhere would work better and not overheat and break down from their fuel.
However the corn they grow for ethanol, is not human feed corn. They would also need to switch to a different corn or other food crop.
True but you’ll need another 10% of crude to make up for it.
All will be well, once the Russian oligarchy takes control of food shipments.
Gonna be lower this year too, as farmers switch to soybeans where they can because of sky high fertilizer costs
Which will drive bean prices down along with higher mandated ethanol price with the higher corn prices
“The rural areas are largely unaffected (at least not directly affected) by the actual fighting and destruction.”
—
Even so, it still has to be transported from such places to the buyers both locally and abroad.
...lower HERE too...
Bad news for the world.
Good news for Iowa.
Its a shame we use our corn to fuel our cars
In WWI and WWII the main problem for agricultural production here was that all the young men left to fight.
I’m sure a lot of Ukrainian farm boys are today in a forest somewhere carrying an ATGM.
Using corn enlisted the farm lobby in the game.
Same reason they put food stamps under the Ag Dept not HHS.
Except for that small amount needed to make fine Kentucky and Tennessee Sour Mash Bourbon.
They are entering the raputitsa, the time of mud. I imagine they have a few more paved roads these days than in the early 1940s...
Perhaps urban America should stop focusing on their Eastern European foreign buddies and take responsibility for the economic warfare they’ve been waging on rural counties in the United States.
Russia, China, and Persia aren’t responsible for the anti agricultural and anti industrial policies that took hold of America since the 1960’s.
Nope, “home grown” ideologues and the financial interests that benefit and back them are the culprits.
Every time we try to use the vast natural resources of the United States, the American establishment and urban/suburban voters say:
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
They’re anti American obstructionists.
could, would, might,….
It’s all speculation to keep the fear porn going.
Yes, I could see difficulty in planting and harvesting should the conflict continue into spring and summer, but we’re not there yet and I don’t see the point in hyperventilating over hypotheticals.
I suppose unless your goal it to turn people into preppers. And I doubt that’s their intent.
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