There’s no way that Ukraine’s crop yield this year will be reduced by 50%. The rural areas are largely unaffected (at least not directly affected) by the actual fighting and destruction. Cost (and availability?) of fertilizer may impact the crop production somewhat but as long as the farmers have the diesel they need they should get their crops in and harvested. Just IMHO based on limited knowledge.
Now if substantial numbers of farmers and their workers left as refugees then all bets are off.
“The rural areas are largely unaffected (at least not directly affected) by the actual fighting and destruction.”
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Even so, it still has to be transported from such places to the buyers both locally and abroad.
In WWI and WWII the main problem for agricultural production here was that all the young men left to fight.
I’m sure a lot of Ukrainian farm boys are today in a forest somewhere carrying an ATGM.