Posted on 12/13/2021 6:02:48 AM PST by Browns Ultra Fan
Inflation-adjusted return of Treasuries fell to lowest since the 1980s. For bond investors, this is their version of Kevin’s Famous Chili from The Office! Or The Fed’s Famous Chili!
Treasury investors are losing more money than they have in four decades, once inflation is taken into account. And if markets are right, they’re unlikely to come out ahead for years.
The federal government’s debt has already lost about 2% outright over the past year as the Federal Reserve started removing pandemic-era stimulus from the economy and inched closer toward raising interest rates. But on top of that, the consumer price index has surged 6.8%, putting investors even deeper in the hole.
Taken together, that’s resulting in the worst real returns — or those adjusted for inflation — since the early 1980s, when then Fed Chair Paul Volcker was in the midst of fighting a wage-price spiral. What’s more, the dynamic isn’t expected to change: The bond market is projecting that 10-year Treasury yields will hold below the inflation rate for the next decade, meaning any investment income will be more than wiped out by the rising cost of living.
If we look at the REAL 10-year Treasury yield and REAL Fed Funds Target Rate, they are both negative.
Let’s see if Powell spills his famous chili on Wednesday at 2:00PM EST. The Fed keeps saying they are serious about controlling inflation, just like Kevin Malone.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
In other words:
We really screwed the pooch big time, and it will require the liquidation of most Retirement and Pension funds of the middle class to get us out of this mess.
The S&P is at a record high.
Is it propaganda to justify a planned Volcker-style rate hike?
It is a pity to see the bondholders hurting, but would anyone like a mortgage to hike to 15%, and what business is going to survive a 20% interest credit line?
The SAP has already figured in inflation of stock values.
In an inflationary economy, companies can raise price to maintain their inflation-adjusted revenues.
It's the same reason why real estate prices have been climbing -- people are buying real estate as an inflation hedge.
Very few places to put your money. It is ripe for a wicked crash. When we get a healthy does of interest rate hikes to stomp out inflation money will move out of the stock market. However, the problem is federal and state governments are in so much debt that higher interest rates will create a situation where government can't afford to service their debt. Eff'ing Democrats and RINOs just compound the problem by spending trillions of more dollars, creating more debt. The fed compounds the problem by printing more money, thus devaluing the dollar. We need massive cuts to government and government spending, so tax receipts are in excess of what it spends. That ain't gonna happen, no one even says a thing about a balanced budget, let alone to have excess revenue to pay down the debt.
Bonds generally are inverse to stocks. But given the current yields and the likelihood of these low coupon bonds dropping in value (and moreso in the face of inflation), one can’t really justify fleeing to the safety of bonds at this point. I’d probably move some money into bonds if the Fed offered some at 12%.
Big businesses are buying real estate and turning around and renting those properties. In the process they are squeezing out middle income home buyers and increasing rent prices on those that can afford it the least.
I agree with you completely. But talk about crash, commercial real estate looks particularly bad for the near term future. And who wants residential - we have a local bubble here that will pop sooner or later, coupled with those eviction moratorums. No telling when they will crop back up - probably before the fall elections.
Nah. The powers that be would find it devastating to refinance government debt at high rates.
“However, the problem is federal and state governments are in so much debt that higher interest rates will create a situation where government can’t afford to service their debt.”
A mortgage or government bond might have two interest rates.
A first interest rate would provide steady income - such as a 30-year fixed 2.88% payout rate.
A second interest rate would provide protection against inflation - such as an adjustable principal increase rate, which might be tied to property tax assessments or government spending or retail prices, or a calculated mixture.
A $300,000 2.88% payout purchase mortgage might pay $8,640 in interest its first year and have a principal balance of $312,000 at the start of month 13.
Monthly mortgage payments would remain affordable, but the mortgage would protect mortgage investors quite well against inflation.
The Fed is probably thinking about boiling the frog, a quarter point or half point at a time—hoping nobody notices.
Tick, tick, tick.....
......but,...but...but....how can this be....?
the mainstream media flacks are all saying now that the economy is in great shape, it’s growing by leaps and bounds,
and all this talk about inflation, poor job growth, etc, is all part of “disinformation” from those nasty conservatives and/or Republicans (not always the same thing....).
The Iranian banks offered mortgages for 18% average as of 2019. Car loans and credit cards are more than that.
I read that 18% of home sales are to big investors who are paying up to 30% more to get the home.
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