Is A Chinese Military Attack On Taiwan Inevitable?

19FortyFive ^ | 10/6/2021 | James Holmes

[Onthebrink]

Xi Jinping’s options

Let us go through his options in broad terms. First, Beijing would doubtless prefer to win without fighting, true to Chinese strategic traditions.[6] That is not because party magnates harbour scruples over using violence, or goodwill towards Taiwan. It is because aggressors love peace.[7] A bloodless triumph lets them get their way while sparing them the dangers, hardships, and costs of war.

But it is increasingly doubtful that Taiwan will capitulate without warfare. Polls reveal that an overpowering majority of islanders now define themselves not as Chinese but as Taiwanese.[8] As a corollary, they reject the legitimacy of the mainland’s claim to be their rightful sovereign.

[central_va]

world economy.

That's the problem. Bring all manufacturing home. Do it. Short term pain long term prosperity.

[Kevmo]

Of course Xi can afford it. Chairman Mao killed 3X as many people in his “cultural revolution”. Killing millions in an expansionist hegemony play makes dictators popular.

[jmacusa]

The Austrians by and large were in favor of the Anschluss. Taiwan doesn't want any part of being part of Communist China. To me it looks a lot like the Russo/Finnish War of 1939. If the Chinese do invade the Commies will suffer some serious losses but in the end sheer weight of numbers will doom the Taiwanese.