Posted on 10/03/2021 8:59:51 AM PDT by blam
Chaos Theory is often associated with a quotation, something along the lines of “a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo leads to a storm in Manhattan”. I’ve always taken that to mean that if we had sophisticated enough models and data collection, we could determine that a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo would cause a storm in Manhattan. That despite this seeming like an unlikely correlation that no one could foresee, there is actually a cause and effect. We just don’t have the data or the models (currently) to link that butterfly to the storm in New York.
I think this is relevant today as I “sense” (for lack of a better word) that one or more butterflies have flapped their wings and the impending storms are on their way. Yes, maybe it is a cop-out that I will be a bit vague, but I can’t help thinking that important things have occurred and in the coming days and weeks we will see their effects:
◾Afghanistan. From the moment this occurred, not only were the president’s approval ratings affected, but the media coverage of this administration shifted. This is playing out in real time as both parties (and the factions within each party) try to cobble together infrastructure deals. Expect disappointment.
◾Energy Problems in Europe and China. Many would argue that Europe has been “way ahead” of the U.S. in terms of shifting their energy reliance from fossil fuels to other sources. Many have argued, or at least I have, that while sustainability is an admirable goal and one that we must push for, we must ensure that it is done in a way that is both achievable and doesn’t severely hamper our ability to compete globally. China’s energy problems are different, yet highlight the risks to the global economy when the largest manufacturer has issues beyond the already problematic supply chains. I’m not sure what will happen from this sudden focus on energy, but I suspect it will change the narrative in many ways, which will create opportunities and problems.
◾Jobs. Complete confusion about the number of unfilled jobs. This is incredibly puzzling and as we move into October, the explanations that many used (including myself) to explain the issue, seem to not be doing a good job of explaining the dynamics. I’m at a loss for a good explanation, but I’m increasingly concerned that the jobs wanted will disappear before they get filled, leaving us in a precarious position. I hope I’m wrong, but…
◾Transitory Inflation. Even some central banks are trying to redefine transitory as not having a specific timeframe. With the energy problem and job market issues described above, it is more difficult to see inflation as transitory. Also, since it has been at least six months of “transitory this and transitory that” where some inflation spikes up whenever another area calms down, this makes it hard to say this is transitory.
◾Central Banks. While it is difficult to say that the Fed isn’t accommodative, they are poised to be less accommodative than they were. That is happening across the globe.
◾China Real Estate. I think Evergrande may be the Mothra that flapped its wings.
In Chaos Theory, patterns only emerge over time and only once those patterns emerge can we see them for what they were. I think we have had several critical events and “moments” that will play out in the coming weeks and most seem bad (except that they do reinforce my longer-term view that we will develop a domestic manufacturing base in the coming years).
Bkmk
The Lorenz Attractor is hypnotizing.
Many have argued, or at least I have, that while sustainability is an admirable goal and one that we must push for, we must ensure that it is done in a way that is both achievable and doesn’t severely hamper our ability to compete globally.
The irony here is the hat he has fulfilled all that is expected or required of the blessed with respect to “sustainability”; he has testified for it.
Next time don’t set the butterflies next to the Covid vials.
How can COVID get left out of this discussion. Not to mention I think the change in population ethnicities as white’s have less kids than other’s. Change is always happening but when all these things hit the fan at once it could get really ugly. BTW it appears Chinese military planes are already landing at Bagram. That was quick.
Might check out James Gleick’s “Chaos”. Basically, there are problems which are not solvable.
One can call “chaos theory” more more exactly as “nonlinear dynamics”. Not all problems are solvable.
One of the first thing said in my Freshman year Analysis course (which includes calculus) is that certain function classes were “pathological”, and would not be handled in the course. That was a few years before the whole fractal thing became seriously studied.
If butterfly wings flapping can cause tornados across the world, what woild 5 billion or more cows farting do?
Biden’s wings must be going as fast as a humming birds.
My favorite butterfly effect short story.
“ A Sound of Thunder” by Ray Bradbury
Agree completely. It is not a difficult read, and gives a pretty good basic introduction to nonlinear dynamics.
“I’ve always taken that to mean that if we had sophisticated enough models and data collection, we could determine that a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo would cause a storm in Manhattan.”
This is incorrect. It means we can never measure initial conditions accurately enough to predict the future state of a chaotic system.
Anyone who is a student of history knows we are on the cusp of some very, VERY bad times, internationally.
An those of us that do are like animals being stirred up by a coming earthquake, while everybody else wonders why we’re “going crazy”.
And unlike those animals, we have the ability to prepare, and time will bring everyone on board whether they like it or not.
That despite this seeming like an unlikely correlation that no one could foresee, there is actually a cause and effect.
Joe Biden is a self-inflicted phase transition hopefully that implodes. The supply chain disruptions may lead to more
in house manufacturing jobs. Who would have ever thought that the lack of modernized productive port facilities could possibly lead to the rejuvenation of the manufacturing base.
Joe is full of surprises. The bottlenecks MAGA.
Anyone who is a student of history knows we are on the cusp of some very, VERY bad times, internationally.
An those of us that do are like animals being stirred up by a coming earthquake, while everybody else wonders why we’re “going crazy”.
And unlike those animals, we have the ability to prepare, and time will bring everyone on board whether they like it or not.
1) Decisions have consequences, why have had too many bad decisions to overcome. But, we can still affect the consequences to a degree
2) There are no safe harbors in the coming storm. Buit some will be safer that others. Safety is relative, not absolute.
“I’ve always taken that to mean that if we had sophisticated enough models and data collection, we could determine that a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo would cause a storm in Manhattan.”
My understanding of a chaotic system is that absolutely perfect knowledge of initial conditions would be necessary to make those sorts of predictions. “Very accurate” or even “ultra ludicrously extremely accurate” approximations are not good enough.
I can’t find a reference, but I once read that modern chaos theory originated with a researcher in the early days of computer models who had been running a weather simulation program on his computer. He had to stop it to do something else with his computer, and when he restarted it he typed in the same conditions it had ended with, except they were slightly different. The program diverged completely from where it would ordinarily have gone. He determined that the tiniest change in starting conditions would make a huge difference millions of computer cycles later.
That’s what I read anyway. Yeah, I know the mathematics of chaos theory has been around for a long time, but it’s an interesting story.
That isn't actually chaos theory, it's simple GIGO. If your reaction to the above issues is bafflement, it isn't because they aren't calculable, it's because we're being lied to.
I remember one of those pathological functions.
for N, a real number, in the range of negative infinity to positive infinity,And that was one of the simpler ones!
If N is rational, then f(N) equals 1.
If N is irrational then f(N) equals 0.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.