Posted on 02/20/2021 8:41:49 AM PST by EyesOfTX
Lots of media chatter happening today about the dramatic fall in COVID-19 infection and hospitalization rates since the first of the year
It seems the vaccines that were fast-tracked by the Trump Administration are proving even more effective than first thought, thanks to the rapid distribution and administering program implemented by the Trump team, which had more than 1 million doses being delivered every day by the time China Joe Biden was installed into the presidency. That reality, combined with the build-up of herd immunity in the country is now leading to a dramatic drop in the infection, hospitalization and death rates related to the viral gift from China.
(Excerpt) Read more at dbdailyupdate.com ...
Even with vaccines, we are still a LONG way from herd immunity.
For Covid-19, with an R naught (communicability measure) of 2.5, herd immunity is reached when 60% of the population is immune.
About 12-13% of the population has ever caught Covid-19. Around 1.5% have died, so reduce the survivors and currently ill by that amount, so 10.5 to 11.5%. Not all of these will be immune, either because their immune systems have not adequately responded (yet?), or their immunity from a past infection has waned.
About 5.1% have received both doses of the vaccine.
So, at best, 16% of the population is immune. This is not adequate for herd immunity, not even close.
Right now, the major factors driving the decrease of cases would be that more people are observing the social distancing and masking guidelines, and there are no more holiday gatherings as there were in November and December. It is also very cold, which discourages riots which also are a source of transmission. Yes, the vaccines help. But they are just one part of the full picture.
Depends on whom they are testing.
Is it someone who was sick, or just general population?
Those numbers sound good to me. What is needed as a percentage for herd immunity to actually be effective?
I was sick for two weeks back in April. Really wiped out and could not get warm. But technically, the symptoms weren’t right for COVID and since I wasn’t in distress and everything was shut down, didn’t see the point of trying to go to the doctor. It wasn’t likely that I’d get in.
Is there any value in getting antibody tested? How reliable is it especially after almost a year?
Yup, comparing the numbers now and when Trump was in office is comparing apples to oranges.
You can’t change the testing criteria in the middle of something and expect to get an accurate, honest representation of what’s going on.
From Godzilla’s Threat Matrix update (today)....
Wuhan virus -
......CDC says overdose deaths for July 2020—the latest month on record—numbered 83,544 for the preceding 12-month period, a roughly 25% increase from July of 2019. From all accounts, the percentage of suicide deaths has continued to rise substantially (Me: from these absurd lock downs 😩)
Data continues to show that the flu season has mysteriously disappeared this year. It has gone from 400,000 hospitalized cases and 22,000 deaths last season to an infinitesimal 165 hospitalized cases this season. The reason is pretty obvious - misreported to be wuhan virus.
Over the last six weeks, new cases of infection of the coronavirus have dropped an astonishing 77 percent. Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at Johns Hopkins, wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal . However, politicians are still acting as if this is a crisis that demands immediate action and compliance with all restrictions, in some cases into 2022.
China virus is all but dead, here in the US, Jim.
Time to end this tyrannical experimental, unproven ‘vax’ scam.
Democrats will have a difficult time justifying their tyrannical policies without the “pandemic”. Look at Governor Cuomo and Governor Newsom right now. COVID-19 might knock both of them out of office.
In the meantime, Wolf of PA is ordering another 90 days of lockdown for his state.
They just do not want to give up the power trip they are on.
Exactly.
Actual, REAL science is proving them to be the power tripping megalomaniacs that they are.
Now the questions remain of what to do about them and how it’s going to be accomplished.
And WHO is going to man up and do it.
the influenza virus and the covid virus are 2 very different organisms. they do not cross react on the same tests. They are different clinical syndromes. Covid is not misreported influenza. You are entitled to your (wrong) opinion but not your facts.
Antibody testing is pretty worthless after 90 days (at least standard) as the antibodies are not synthesized and there is T-cell immunity.
Here is what I am reading, and I am correlating it with worldometer (I know not the best, but it least it is standardized).
The current best guess I see is that for every one (+) case there are 8 actual but untested cases. Using the 1:8 ratio it appears that once a population such as a state or region reaches 10% actual positive cases historically, the numbers fall off in a way that it looks like herd immunity. I know we diverge on the vaccine, but assume for a moment it does what its supposed to do and give immunity which is part of the herd. Assume also almost everyone (including dish*t) Fauci has thrown around the 80% number for the herd and once this level is reached the numbers fall away rapidly, I am guessing we are on the threshold of actual herd immunity. The timing of 15 months is consistent with wild type disease and vaccination as most pandemics range 18 - 24 months (I am assuming a November 2019 circulation start date based on the data and retrospective testing)
The formula I am guessing looks something like this:
[Number (+) tests x 8] + people vaccinated / population = X% immunity
What x is the herd immunity threshold — again my SWAg at this time is x > 80%
Is my logic incorrect anywhere that you can see?
LOL....likewise (about YOUR opinions vs facts).
Friends of ours who (the entire family) has had WuFlu, since March 2020 - close to a year.....continue to test positive for the antibodies.
They donate blood on a regular basis....and, are tested for WhuFlu antibodies, each time.
You are not accounting for cases that are not tested, which are probably 1:6 - 1:10 according to most data and theory. You are underpowered by a significant factor
It won’t end as long as they continue to lie about the numbers. Their followers will believe anything they’re told.
OK so covid must be over soon or people will get suspicious. But there are other public health issues that could go crisis. Racism has already been mooted as such during the burning of 2020. You're not a racist are you?
.....There’s simply no way to know how many people have been sick or who built up immunity from constant low level exposure without actually falling ill.....
......aided by T-cell-based immunity to previous infections with coronaviruses that cause many cases of the common cold!!!!
Precisely.
Fauci: “The variants are coming, the variants are coming! Lock down everything!!”
They moved the goal posts, too, on what counts as “a case”.
PCR positive is no longer = Covid. You are not Covid now unless you get a second test to confirm it, and are presenting clinical symptoms.
End result - far fewer “cases”.
Why COVID-19 Cases Will Instantly Drop
Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/02/03/who-changes-ct-value-pcr.aspx
Antibodies were detected in elderly survivors of the 1918 flu pandemic. Why couldn’t we find antibodies past 90 days with covid patients.
I am curious, are you seeing a decrease in covid cases in your hospital?
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