Skip to comments.
The Two Pins That Will Pop The Stock Market Bubble: It Has Happened Every Time In History.
Real Investment Advice ^
| 02/19/2021
| Lance Roberts
Posted on 02/19/2021 4:14:00 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Yes. We are in a stock market bubble. The only question is, what will be the issue that eventually pops it? We alluded to this answer in Friday’s #MacroView discussing why more “Stimulus Won’t Create Economic Growth.”
As discussed in our previous article, if market bubbles are about “psychology,” as represented by investors’ herding behavior, then price and valuations reflect that psychology.
In other words, bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise. Let me show you an elementary example of what I mean. The chart below is the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 going back to 1871.
Notice that except for only 1929, 2000, and 2007, every other major market crash occurred with valuations at levels LOWER than they are currently.
Secondly, all market crashes, which resulted from the preceding bubble, have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels. Those catalysts have ranged from liquidity issues to government actions, monetary policy mistakes, recessions, or inflationary spikes. Those events were the catalyst, or trigger, that started the “reversion in sentiment” by investors.
There are currently two “pins” that could pop the current market bubble.
The Inflation Pin
To fully explain why the Fed is now trapped, we must start with the inflation premise.
The Federal Reserve has consistently argued that monetary policy is a function of their two mandates: full employment and price stability.
While the Fed has stated they are willing to let “inflation” run hot, their biggest fear is a repeat of the runaway inflation of the 70s. However, the basis of the entire bull market thesis is low rates.
As Oliver Blanchard of the Federal Reserve recently stated concerning Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package:
“How this number translates into an increase in demand this year depends on multipliers. If the average multiplier is 1 (which I think of as a conservative assumption), this implies that demand would increase by 4-times the output gap.
If this increase in demand could be accommodated, it would lead to a level of output at 14% above potential, which would take the unemployment rate very close to zero.
Such would not be overheating (i.e. inflation), it would be starting a fire.”
Using the money supply as a proxy, we can compare the money supply changes to inflation.
The chart below advances M2 by 9-months as compared to CPI and the Fed Funds rate. If the historical correlation holds, the Federal Reserve will start talking about tapering monetary policy, and hiking interest rates, within the next year.
Of course, the last time the Fed started discussing similar policy changes was in 2017, which lead to the great “Taper Tantrum” of 2018.
The Interest Rate Pin
As noted, the problem with inflation is that if economists do get their wish for higher prices, such also corresponds historically with higher interest rates.
However, as you will note, each time that interest rate has moved up correspondingly with inflation, such never remained the case for long. While much of the media is currently suggesting that interest rates are about to surge higher due to economic growth and inflationary pressure, I disagree.
Economic growth is “governed” by the level of debt and deficits. However, it isn’t just the heavily leveraged government – it is every single facet of the economy.
Debt has exploded.
In 1980, the Federal Reserve became active in monetary policy, believing they could control economic growth and inflationary pressures. Decades of their monetary experiment have succeeded only in reducing economic growth and inflation and increasing economic inequality.
In a heavily indebted economy, increases in rates are problematic for markets whose valuation premise relies on low rates.
Each time rates have “spiked” in the past; it has generally preceded a mild to a severe market correction.
As is often stated, “a crisis happens slowly, then all at once.”
So, how did the Federal Reserve get themselves into this trap?
The Trap
In an economy laden with $85 Trillion in total debt, higher interest rates have an immediate impact on consumption, which is 70% of economic growth. The chart below shows this to be the case, which is the interest service on total credit market debt. (The chart assumes all debt is equivalent to the 10-year Treasury, which is not the case.)
Importantly, note that each time rates have risen substantially from previous lows, there has been a crisis, recession, or a bear market. Currently, with rates at historic lows, consumers are rushing out to buy houses and cars. However, if rates rise to between 1.5 and 2%, economic growth will quickly stall. Such was a point we made in our COT Report:
“Can rates rise in the near-term due to “checks to households” that get spent to pull-forward consumption? Absolutely.
However, the limit of that increase in rates is between 1.56% and 2.19%. At these points, rates will collide with the outstanding debt.”
The Federal Reserve is well aware of the problem. Such is why they have been quick to reduce rates and increase bond purchases, as higher rates spread through the economy like a virus.
The Rate Virus
In an economy that requires roughly $5 of debt to create $1 of economic growth, changes to interest rates have an immediate impact on consumption and growth.
1) An increase in rates curtails growth as rising borrowing costs slow consumption.
2) As of January 21st, the Fed now has $7.38 trillion in liabilities and $39.2 billion in capital. A sharp rise in rates will dramatically impair their balance sheet.
3) Rising interest rates will immediately slow the housing market. People buy payments, not houses, and rising rates mean higher payments.
4) An increase in rates means higher borrowing costs and lower profit margins for corporations.
5) Stock valuations have been elevated due to low rates. Higher rates exacerbate the valuation problem for equities.
6) The negative impact on the massive derivatives market could lead to another credit crisis as rate-spread derivatives go bust.
7) As rates increase, so do the variable rate interest payments on credit cards. With the consumer already impacted by stagnant wages, under-employment, and high living costs, a rise in debt payments would further curtail disposable incomes.
8) Rising defaults on debt services will negatively impact banks that are still not adequately capitalized and still burdened by massive bad debt levels.
9) The deficit/GDP ratio will surge as borrowing costs rise sharply.
I could go on, but you get the idea.
Since interest rates affect “payments,” increases in rates negatively impact consumption, housing, and investment, which ultimately deters economic growth.
With “expectations” currently “off the charts,” literally, it will ultimately be the level of interest rates that triggers some “credit event” that starts the “great unwinding.”
It has happened every time in history.
No Way Out
The problem for the market going forward, as noted, is that markets have priced in a speedy recovery back to pre-recession norms, no secondary outbreak of the virus, and a vaccine. If such does turn out to be the case, the Federal Reserve will have a huge problem.
The “unlimited QE” bazooka is dependent on the Fed needing to monetize the deficit and support economic growth. However, if the goals of full employment and economic growth get quickly reached, the Fed will face a potential “inflation surge.”
Such will put the Fed into a very tight box. The surge in inflation will limit their ability to continue “unlimited QE” without further exacerbating the inflation problem. However, if they don’t “monetize” the deficit through their “QE” program, interest rates will surge, leading to an economic recession.
It’s a no-win situation for the Fed.
As Doug Kass concluded last week:
“To me, there is only one inescapable economic conclusion – inflation and interest rates are heading higher as better economic growth in the last half of 2021 is delivered by the unprecedented stimulus. Unfortunately, the stimulus is in the form of mostly transfer payments and not in expansion of productivity or capacity.
The economic boom will be a sugar-based high and there is an almost inevitable bust cycle emerging by or in 2023 when the heady fiscal stimulus ends.
Today’s record stock prices belie a likely hard economic landing that may lie ahead.”
Of course, this has always been the case historically. Just as the “Coyote” still wound up going over the cliff when chasing the “Roadrunner,” excessive bullish optimism is always eventually met with disappointment.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Society
KEYWORDS: bonds; bubble; charts; economy; finance; graphics; investment; markets; stockmarket; stocks; trade
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-33 next last
To: SeekAndFind
To: SeekAndFind
I’m not worried. This time I have a system to time it perfectly.
3
posted on
02/19/2021 4:19:36 PM PST
by
glorgau
To: SeekAndFind
$4,900,000,000,000.00 in stimulus spending alone coming our way.
4
posted on
02/19/2021 4:27:59 PM PST
by
EEGator
To: glorgau
I bet a lot of people have said that.
5
posted on
02/19/2021 4:28:31 PM PST
by
EEGator
To: SeekAndFind
However, if the goals of full employment and economic growth get quickly reached, the Fed will face a potential “inflation surge.” In before "Trump's fault."
6
posted on
02/19/2021 4:28:31 PM PST
by
rarestia
(Repeal the 17th Amendment and ratify Article the First to give the power back to the people!)
To: SeekAndFind
7
posted on
02/19/2021 4:34:56 PM PST
by
DAVEY CROCKETT
(Ec 1:2 The rest is, Vanity of vanities..vanity of vanities!All is vanity.)
To: SeekAndFind
Since Biden is destroying the economy and triggering massive job losses this interesting analysis is going to need revising.
Biden is doing all he can to destroy the middle class and push as many Americans as possible back below the poverty line while burdening the tax payers with untold millions of illegal aliens to support. These problem will be exacerbated with a lack of confidence and departure of the businesses that have & would have returned to the USA not not mention the costs of becoming again fuel dependent.
Hard to believe one stolen election could turn the US into the Titanic. The only question is how fast we founder and if there will be a reckoning to remove these monkeys from the helm and into the oblivion they deserve before America is lost.
8
posted on
02/19/2021 4:35:20 PM PST
by
JayGalt
(You can't teach a donkey how to tap dance. Nemo me impune lacessit!)
To: SeekAndFind
I only know one thing about the stock market and that is the big boys rig the system so they always win.
9
posted on
02/19/2021 4:39:01 PM PST
by
CIB-173RDABN
(I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
To: rarestia
...if the goals of full employment and economic growth get quickly reached...
Full employment? Quickly reached?
Won’t have to worry about that.
10
posted on
02/19/2021 4:46:39 PM PST
by
DuncanWaring
(The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
To: JayGalt
The law of unintended consequences will fall into effect and give America the kick in the pants she needs. The Stock Market will crash hard, cause a depression, made worse by FDR pump priming to feed the rich but pull the world into a massive world wide depression that will give rise to real dictators and real fascism. China will fold up from within and wars will scar the planet—this time with Nukes. Good news—billions of people will starve to death or be killed in bloody wars—fewer people, less pollution, fewer homeless because of new radioactive inner cities.
To: glorgau
12
posted on
02/19/2021 4:53:31 PM PST
by
Az Joe
(Commie Kamala is a super-spreader....know what I mean?)
To: JayGalt
“Hard to believe one stolen election could turn the US into the Titanic. “
That was the plan all along.
13
posted on
02/19/2021 4:57:03 PM PST
by
wjcsux
(RIP Rush Limbaugh 12 Jan 1951- 17 Feb 2021. We really miss you. )
To: glorgau
I wish just once we would read these articles and understand what one can do to protect oneself...
I personally do not have a govt pension nor a defined pension plan...my employment never offered it so its a mostly self funded 401K...
so I depend on it and I need it....
I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds and it has done well...
put it all ing govt reserves?...take it all out and loose half of it to taxes?....bury my head?....what?
14
posted on
02/19/2021 5:04:40 PM PST
by
cherry
(we are the Remnant)
To: SeekAndFind
The economic boom will be a sugar-based high and there is an almost inevitable bust cycle emerging by or in 2023 So no worries!
To: wjcsux
Trump was just bailing water.
16
posted on
02/19/2021 5:09:20 PM PST
by
Husker24
To: SeekAndFind
To: SeekAndFind
Debt free for 8 years, building 3rd house, all cash, done by the end of the year.
The Borrower is Slave to the Lender
18
posted on
02/19/2021 5:17:01 PM PST
by
eyeamok
(founded in cynicism, wrapped in sarcasm)
To: SeekAndFind
19
posted on
02/19/2021 5:26:31 PM PST
by
sauropod
(#ImpeachMcConnell. #Resist. #NotMyPresident.)
To: eyeamok
Good job! I refinanced the house at 2.5% and didn’t take any money out. The mortgage is about 1/3 of the value of the house. The house is the only debt that we have.
20
posted on
02/19/2021 5:34:12 PM PST
by
wjcsux
(RIP Rush Limbaugh 12 Jan 1951- 17 Feb 2021. We really miss you. )
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-33 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson