POLITICO Playbook: What blue wave?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP and JOE BIDEN are locked in the tightest presidential contest in decades, with TRUMP threatening to drag the race to the Supreme Court. BIDEN is ahead by a sliver in Wisconsin, TRUMP is up in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- but it’s close, with plenty outstanding. Nevada is suddenly tight. Georgia is too close to call. We’ll get to this all in a minute. But let’s start with what we know:

TUESDAY WAS AN ABJECT DISASTER for Democrats in Washington. To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying. The infighting will be bloody -- as it should be. We fielded text after text from Hill Democrats Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with existential questions about their leadership and the direction of their party.

DEMOCRATS TOLD US in the weeks and months leading up to Election Day that they were on track to win the majority in the Senate, and they don’t appear poised to do that. Donors gave $90 million to lose to Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, $108 million to lose to Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and $24 million to lose to Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). GOP Sen. STEVE DAINES won in Montana. GOP Sen. THOM TILLIS is up in North Carolina. GOP Sen. DAVID PERDUE is above 50% in Georgia, at the moment. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS is narrowly ahead in Maine -- despite Democrat SARA GIDEON raising $69 million. Iowa Sen. JONI ERNST won her bid for a second term. Andrew Desiderio and James Arkin on the state of play in the Senate

DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TOLD US that Dems would win a dozen seats in the House, and knock off a whole host of Republican incumbents, and that was completely wrong. Instead, Republicans -- powered by the NRCC and CLF -- beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents. The GOP added women to their ranks. They beat Minnesota Rep. COLLIN PETERSON after a few decades of trying. Republicans beat two Democratic incumbents in the Miami area -- DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL and DONNA SHALALA. NANCY MACE beat Rep. JOE CUNNINGHAM in South Carolina. Democratic Rep. MAX ROSE appears to be done in Staten Island. Democratic Reps. XOCHITL TORRES SMALL of New Mexico and KENDRA HORN of Oklahoma both have lost.

INSTEAD OF SITTING SOMEWHERE in the 180s, Republicans have north of 200 House seats, making themselves an extremely powerful minority no matter who wins the White House.

AND, TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, the chair of the DCCC, Rep. CHERI BUSTOS, is struggling to hang on in her Illinois district. Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team will have a lot to think about -- and explain -- in the next few weeks. Republicans could have a net gain of 10 House seats. Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris on where things stand in the House

HOUSE MINORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY told JOHN BRESNAHAN early this Wednesday morning: “We defied the odds. It’s the night of the Republican women. … The Democrats never solved one problem in their majority. They promised they would govern differently, and they didn’t.”

NOW ONTO THE BIG SHOW: TRUMP threatened to drag the Supreme Court into the presidential race with a number of states still counting. It feels like Bush v. Gore all over again. “We were going to win this election,” TRUMP told supporters in the East Room of the White House around 2:30 a.m. “Frankly we did win. So we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. As far as I’m concerned, we already did win.”

THE REALITY is TRUMP and BIDEN remain locked in a slow-motion brawl with both sides still awaiting final results from several states. The race is not over.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, as many as 2 million mail-in ballots still have to be counted. Michigan also has outstanding ballots, and there’s no deadline for them to finish.

VP MIKE PENCE took a decidedly softer tone on the process, saying: “While the votes continue to be counted, we’re going to remain vigilant, as the president said. The right to vote has been at the center of our democracy since the founding of this nation, and we’re going to protect the integrity of the vote."

AT 12:45 A.M., BIDEN said he would win the race when it’s all said and done, not TRUMP. “We knew this was going to go on, but who knew we were going to go into maybe tomorrow morning, maybe even longer?” Biden said at a Wilmington, Del., car rally. “But look, we feel good about where we are. We really do. I’m here to tell you tonight we believe we’re on track to win this election.”

HERE’S A SHORT LIST of what Democrats are going to wonder: Was BIDEN too cautious? Is the party too far to the left? Is it too closely hewed to the center? Is the leadership in Congress too stale? BUT CHIEFLY, what they will be asking themselves is how and why this race was so close against a president who they so badly misjudged.

WHAT’S CLEAR: If BIDEN wins the White House, he will likely face a Republican Senate and an emboldened House minority. If TRUMP wins, he will be backed up by MCCONNELL and MCCARTHY, and the GOP will have a huge say in governing.

IMAGINE IF BIDEN DOES WIN -- and that’s a big, big if: Think about how he’ll get a Cabinet approved. Think about Democratic wishes-- raising corporate taxes, capital gains, packing the Supreme Court, blowing up the filibuster -- and those seem absolutely impossible. Gridlock is likely.

FRONT PAGES: NYT: “TURNOUT SOARS, ALONG WITH SUSPENSE, AS NATION IN TUMULT DELIVERS VERDICT” … N.Y. POST: “NAILBITER” … WAPO: “A nation divided”

NYT’S ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: “As of early Wednesday morning, the race remained shrouded in uncertainty, as Mr. Biden failed to achieve any early breakthroughs, and as Mr. Trump clung to a lead in a number of Southern states that Democrats had hoped to flip into their column.

“Mr. Trump dashed Democrats’ hopes of picking up both Florida and Ohio, two swing states that have tilted to the right in recent years, and that Mr. Trump carried four years ago. He also turned back a challenge from Mr. Biden in Iowa, a smaller state where Mr. Biden made a late effort to pick up its six Electoral College votes.

“Mr. Trump did not have a clear upper hand, but the prolonged suspense was, at least at the start, something of a victory for the president, who was at risk of being eliminated from contention if one of the big, historically Republican states of the Southeast had defected to Mr. Biden. That was still a possibility in North Carolina or Georgia, where the vote tally was closely divided.”

WSJ’S JOHN MCCORMICK and CHAD DAY: “The portrait of America revealed in Tuesday’s presidential election was one of a deeply divided nation split between men and women, white and nonwhite voters, urban and rural residents, college graduates and those who didn’t graduate from college, and differing views on the importance of controlling the coronavirus pandemic versus preventing further damage to the economy.

“A national voter survey conducted for The Wall Street Journal and other news organizations showed President Trump with his strongest support among men, white voters without a college degree, rural residents and those who said the government should put a higher priority on the economy even if it increases the spread of the coronavirus. Democrat Joe Biden was more heavily favored by women, urban and suburban residents, nonwhite voters and college graduates.”

BIG PICTURE -- JOHN HARRIS column: “Once Again, a Nation Cuts It Too Close for Comfort”: “Before Election Day, Democrats had an answer for how they intended to deal with President Donald Trump’s hold on his most-devoted partisans, or the possibility of widespread challenges to absentee ballots, or the fear that conservative judges might come to the aid of Republicans with supportive court rulings.

“The answer was that they were going to soar over all these obstacles by mobilizing their own partisans to devastating effect. In 2020, unlike 2016, they weren’t going to cut it close. Well, so much for that plan.

“The country is, once again, cutting it close in a presidential election. As in: Very, very close. Too close to declare a winner on Tuesday evening, and possibly for much longer. Too close to give comfort to either Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden. Too close to avoid Trump’s charge on Twitter after midnight that ‘they are trying to steal the election.’ Too close that American politics has turned a partisan or ideological or demographic corner in any decisive way.” POLITICO

-- DES MOINES REGISTER: “Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield”

-- DENVER POST: “John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner in U.S. Senate race”

-- ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: “Presidential, U.S. Senate race nailbiters in Georgia”: “Georgia Republicans began to rally around U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler after she edged out Congressman Doug Collins for a spot in a Jan. 5 runoff against Democrat Raphael Warnock. Collins conceded the race and pledged full support to his once-bitter rival.

“Georgia’s other marquee races also hung in the balance as dozens of Democratic-leaning precincts surrounding Atlanta had yet to report. That included U.S. Sen. David Perdue’s reelection battle against Democrat Jon Ossoff, as well as a U.S. House contest that was seen as bellwether for Vice President Joe Biden’s strength in the suburbs.”

-- BANGOR DAILY NEWS: “Susan Collins poised to win 5th term after opening wide lead on Sara Gideon”

MEANWHILE … THE CORONAVIRUS IS RAGING -- 9.3 MILLION Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus. … 232,627 Americans have died.

-- “With Winter Coming and Trump Still in Charge, Virus Experts Fear the Worst,” by NYT’s Michael Shear and Sheryl Gay Stolberg: “ Regardless of the election’s outcome this week, President Trump will be the one steering the country through what is likely to be the darkest and potentially deadliest period of the coronavirus pandemic, and he has largely excluded the nation’s leading health experts from his inner circle.

“Mr. Trump will still have control of the nation’s health apparatus and the bully pulpit that comes with the Oval Office until Jan. 20, as infections approach 100,000 a day and death rates begin to rise as hospitals are strained to their breaking points.

“But the president has largely shuttered the White House Coronavirus Task Force and doubled down on anti-science language, telling voters that the country is ‘rounding the corner’ in the fight against the virus that has claimed nearly a quarter of a million lives.”

-- “Virus hospitalizations surge as pandemic shadows U.S. election,” by AP’s Alexandra Olson

“To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying.”

The dims will not search their souls because they do not believe in souls.

If the dims win, everything will be forgiven and forgotten.

And if the dims should lose the presidency about the only thing that will happen is that Biden will be forgotten. But that was going to happen anyway.

Honest man?

Trump needs to win.

I don’t care about any of the rest of this article.

A bunch of buffoons in the senate and house who will be compromised within 2 weeks of taking office (the new ones)

and a bunch of RINOS with a 1 or 2 senator advantage...which is great for passing judges..if Trump is president.

Executive Order is the order of the day and biden/harris will pass them with reckless abandon.

Let’s pray for Trump to win.

Everything else, even the good things...are INCREDIBLY Secondary.

Real nice bullcrap creative writing class type “report”. 60% of which is utter nonsense.

China, China, Soros, China.... Xi Ping Pings. No Patriot from either (any) party can allow this to stand. Period.

GA results cannot... cannot overcome the number reality. Trump has GA. No “call” from media will decide that.

This, from the NYT election site:

“Timing of results:Due to an error in a Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted.”

Further...

“According to turnout estimates, around 440,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 80,000 votes left to report.”

The upshot: With Trump having closed the gap to 3.4% and 97K votes with so many still out to count, mostly from Trump counties... this state is STILL very much in play!

Biden should be the least of our concerns. Harris on the other hand...

We are so effed.

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