Posted on 10/11/2020 11:58:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.
Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.
Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.
But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.
So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.
Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.
Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins to big to over come. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).
One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.
So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).
To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.
But here's a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.
Enthusiasm Gap
The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”
Black Votes Matter
Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.
Latino Support Sans Pandering
Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.
Promises Kept
I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.
It’s still the economy, stupid.
As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.
Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.
But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.
The American people are the only poll that matters.
On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.
President Trump is not your everyday, normal “politician”...
My guess is he will find a way to handle this if the fraud takes a win away from him...
But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters. The American people are the only poll that matters. On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.
But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters. The American people are the only poll that matters. On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.
Part of me thinks that Kamala, a crazy woman, is enough to ensure the Trump landslide no matter how much fraud the Dems commit. The other part of me thinks that the fraud will be so outrageous (because Democrats always overplay their hand), that the election will be a legal nightmare worse than the one in 2000.
Nope. They are scrambling to steal it outright, largely from the 100 million-plus ballots they have mailed out.
As a backstop they have lawfare planned to try to tie it up in court until Nancy gets to take it in January.
“There really is no “Biden Campaign” the only semblance of a campaign is the one being run on his behalf by the media”
and a billion dollars worth of TV ads ... but other than that: nada.
i too don’t think there’s an actual biden campaign other than the leftist fake stream enemedia and the TV ads ...
months ago they announced they were going to have no ground game (digital/virtual only campaign), though they’ve panicked and are trying to build a national ground game in less than six weeks, whereas the Trump campaign has been building their ground game for four years ...
and then there’s the bizarre “turnout” for the jill, joe, and bernie “rallies” ranging from 3 - 12 people standing inside of hulahoops in the backyards of liquor store beer gardens, fundamentally indicating zero advance work and/or zero enthusiasm ...
“Therefore, I believe there is an enormous amount of voter enthusiasm for Trump in this cycle that was not present in 2016 which will translate to much larger winning margins in the polls than four years ago. “
yep ... the extremely novel result of a politician (esp. those who CLAIM to be conservative) who ACTUALLY keeps their promises tends to do that ...
“Hopefully Republicans of the future smarten up and are able to sustain and even improve upon the coalition that Trump is building.”
that’s the big question ... or will they revert back to do-nothing, lying, chickenshit, fraidycats who cry and whine and apologize for every statement they make that the leftist fake stream enemedia tries to frighten them with ...
“Is it possible that Pelosi is privy to the internal DNC polling that is showing a looming disaster on the horizon—a Trump electoral college and popular vote victory, a Senate hold, and even, possibly, a retaking of the House?”
personally, i think that’s highly likely and is actually the impetus to overturn state election law by fiat and by judicial activism to try to steal the election with fraudulent mail-in ballots; fortunately the most egregious changes are being almost universally rejected by the courts, both state and federal ...
“Sure didn’t hurt Obama or the Democrats when they had a sucky economy”
that’s because obama was a magic negro ...
I was actually discouraged at first, but when thinking that it is Townhall, after all, I plowed ahead and read the whole article. I’m glad I did. I pray daily for this to come true.
“This time many of those are less certain and are now motivated by hate.”
i’ll grant you the hate part, but the leftist fake stream enemedia is touring fake polls that are even MORE skewed for biden winning than they were for hillary, so there’s probably still a lazy factor at work, especially for the million college students not living in the college towns where they’re registered to vote ...
“Folks those stupid pollsters and their crooked polls have only encouraged a false sense of victory on the TDS idiots!”
i suspect there’s quite a bit of truth in that ... OTOH, we Trump supporters KNOW the polls are fake and are thus NOT discouraged from voting for him, which apparently is the intended result of the fake polls ... IOW, BACKFIRE! ... AGAIN!
“Its actually a great title—i can send that link to 25 liberals on facebook, and they’ll be sharing it left and right without a clue what the article says.”
hilarious!
I think I'm number 194......does that answer your question?
So what's your point?
“I grabbed my pearls and stumbled toward my fainting couch when I read the headline. Thoughts of doom and the inability to ever accept this future swirled around in my head. Bleak was my outlook. Then in a moment of deep desperation I reached for any sign of saving words in that article which could rescue me in the depths of my despair:
I READ THE ARTICLE.
I coaxed myself to carefully face this apocalyptic scenario, one sentence at a time. And then..i received the reward for ACTUALLY reading the whole story before reacting. Never again will I take a headline as an overview of a story. Life is good.”
BRILLIANT!
Just saw a story on Yahoo, Trump Campaign out of money, that is the reason they are saying he dropped campaign ads in Ohio and other states.
I don’t buy it, but just made another $200 donation just in case. After being on Rush Friday I can’t believe he didn’t get a big life in money from that alone.
The Left is getting as desperate as can be to plant false stories on Trump.
Comments?
I don’t care what anyone says:
HEADLINES LIKE THAT ARE DANGEROUS.
Many people only read headlines.
Our supporters who do that are not HELPING.
“The American electorate is not stupid. It will make the right choice. “
and each and every year, more and more Americans become more and more educated to what’s really going on as they turn away from the insanity and the blatant, obvious lies and propaganda of the leftist fake stream enemedia and turn to alternative sources of information ...
Mitt said in 2012 that it was 47% that will automatically vote for Democrats, that number will only increase with time.
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