Posted on 10/11/2020 11:58:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.
Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.
Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.
But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.
So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.
Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.
Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins to big to over come. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).
One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.
So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).
To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.
But here's a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.
Enthusiasm Gap
The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”
Black Votes Matter
Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.
Latino Support Sans Pandering
Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.
Promises Kept
I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.
It’s still the economy, stupid.
As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.
Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.
But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.
The American people are the only poll that matters.
On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.
“The 2000 Election was decided by 300 votes in one state. The 2016 Election was decided by several thousand votes in three or four states.”
____________________________
:-O
It wont take all that much fraud to change an outcome. The dems are pulling out all the stops. This isn’t a normal election, it is a continuation of the coup.
I think people are being far more quiet this year, after 4 full years of Trump BASHING by the media everyone supporting him being trashed I thing the silent majority where polling is concerned is HUGE!! When supporters are able to get together with each other the numbers are enormous!! Spontaneous parades, rallies, are across this country from sea to shining sea and Trump was not even there still THOUSANDS came to show support!! I have NEVER in my life seen this for ANY candidate EVER!!! If we had social media during Reagan years the support possibly would have been seen in the same way but I am not so sure!!
I read the article and the headline. I have read that the Trump campaign is pulling out of Michigan. That worries me.
Black votes matter. You better believe it. If the split in the black vote comes down anything near what analysts are saying, it’s likely to be a massive Trump win. Meanwhile, this week the leftist pundits are focusing on Suburban women kind of like they did a month ago. Those Suburban women are not likely to want to see mobs come to their neighborhoods and burn down their homes. Even if they feel badly about how blacks have been treated, they don’t want their homes burnt down.
In 2016, I have posited on this forum many times that the Hillary “deplorables” comment Swung vast number of suburban women. Because she gave them a very clear choice. They could either wake up to their deplorable husbands who despite their Pot Bellies and reluctance to take out the garbage, have provided for them for 15 or 20 years....or a woman who claimed to be one of them while collecting millions of dollars in Shady speaking fees and grift from every corner of the world. One of them, indeed. These women are not stupid. They are not College sophomores, there on their parents dime, looking to complete their underwater basket weaving degrees. In 2016, the DNC declared openly that they were abandoning white middle-class men. Despite the ivy league education and self assumed elitist status, some if not many of those women recognized then and there that they could be the next class thrown under the bus. And they did.
Another thing to consider, and this is very subtle, is that if the Democrats are renewing their supposed claim on this class of Voters, yet we say that the Democrats are consistently engaged in accusing the GOP of exactly what they are doing, there is every possibility that they fear that this class of Voters they take for granted is ready to abandon them. That is only a theory. In short, these women now have a choice between a man who they believe bragged about grabbing pussies, or a man who supports mobs of violent anarchists of whatever persuasion coming to their neighborhood and burning their house down. I do not think that is a difficult choice. Some of these women embody the stupidity that only a higher education Can
impart. A great many more of them in my opinion do not feel that way. They are very smart, they are very practical, they have families to raise and they see themselves as a core foundation of the family unit. With all its flaws and warts. And they’re not going to abandon that for bumper sticker slogans.
The other side is going to be hard pressed to invent enough votes to overcome Trump’s victory.
_______________________________________
THIS^
There is no way our side will sanction ballots above the number of eligible voters. That is what stopped the recounts in the rustbelt in 2016: unbelievable numbers of ballots that could not possibly exist, legally.
We have census, DMV, voting, birth certificates, death certificates, property tax rolls, naturalization numbers, school registrations, payroll tax numbers and all those marketing spreadsheets to use as a cross check. We have the tech hardware and bodies to do it accurately.
My only question for McCullough is he puts NY in the Trump column. Hard to accept, but it’s 2020. Maybe all those who left NYC are voting in other places or simply cannot stomach voting for communism? Maybe Deblasio and Cuomo simply no longer have the mojo to buy and fix NYS votes?
If that happens, we’re golden.
I know someone who changed from 2016 to 2020, but not toward Trump: my mother. She didn't vote for anyone in 2016 and is voting for Biden in 2020 (already did, yesterday). Luckily she is in CA, not a battleground state.
Her friends finally convinced her to register to vote and vote against Trump--she was born in 1947 and has never voted before yesterday.
It's because in the Bay Area, "friends" will not talk to you unless you say you will vote against Trump. It's pretty scary around here. No Trump signs at all (no Biden either though)--those with American flags are the Trump voters. I think the Bay Area must consider campaign signs for president as tacky. Also they are stolen by both sides quickly I think.
I also have a son in NC who (when in CA in 2016) voted for the Liberatarian candidate and now will likely vote for Biden. My other two adult sons are voting Trump, in CA.
That’s exactly how the democrats win. Massive vote Fraud.
I read the first five paragraphs and gave up in disgust. Just kidding!!! Great piece.
You, too, huh?
It’s odd that the black female vote is so crucial—they are only 11% of the population! They must really all live in the swing states.
I love that he expects Trump to win in a landslide!
I suspect it would exceed Reagans win if the massive demon rat fraud were eliminated.
And here is that leftist tactic of accusing your opposition of what is that they themselves are doing.
Biden says ‘chicanery’ at polls is the only way he could lose US election
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-chicanery-polls-only-way-he-could-lose-election
Agamemnon wrote:
“Trump’s lawyers intend to check/compare every signature on the mail-ins. Very time consuming. If it can’t get done and certify before EC votes ~ Dec 13, the state risks not being counted in the EC tally.
If they can’t complete vote signature comparison, they may have to forego unverifiable mail-ins and be forced to go with just the in-persons and sig-certified absentees only just to get into the EC count at all.
If challenge goes all the way uo the USSC and Amy Coney Barrett is seated, we might see mail-ins discounted simply on the basis of 14th Amendment equal protection of voters rights grounds.
If (D)’s experience a rout, they will only have themselves to blame, and the long knives will be out for those tacticians responsible for the failed strategy.
FReegards!”
Thanks for this info!
Takes care of the cheaters...
I wonder about Michigan. Enthusiasm is high, but the Fraud is with us.
Wish I knew. Gretchen’s little ploy makes me think Trump is winning here.
Christian J. Lasval
@christianlasval
·
Oct 10
The media won’t talk about it, but there are THOUSANDS of Miami residents out in a car parade right now for
@realDonaldTrump
!! Cuban Americans will KEEP FLORIDA RED, help re-elect TRUMP, AND KEEP REPUBLICAN MAJORITIES TO SAVE AMERICA Flag of United States
WATCH: https://twitter.com/i/status/1314948614842658827
“Ain't nobody got time for that.”
I'm looking forward to The Young Turks 2020 Election Meltdown YouTube video.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.