Posted on 06/28/2020 5:26:39 AM PDT by CheshireTheCat
Former Vice President Joe Biden is thumping President Donald Trump in the polls. As of Friday, Biden led Trump by 10 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics national average and by six to nine points in each of four key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But many Democrats refuse to trust these numbers. They feel burned by 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost after leading in the polls for months. They’re afraid Trump will come back again.
That could happen. But it probably won’t, and one reason is that Biden isn’t Clinton. You can argue that public antipathy toward Clinton was sexist, based on lies, or propelled by the media. But that antipathy was a fact, and polls consistently documented it. Now polls are showing something else: On identical questions, posed by the same pollsters at the same stage of the campaign, Biden is doing far better than Clinton did. He’s more broadly liked and less broadly disliked than she was.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
Very reassuring, thank you. I can’t believe anyone is really excited about Dementia Joe, the polls were illogical, just like 4 yearscago.
Bro Lar.
That was the very best post I have read on this forum since Hell Year (2020) began.
Thanks for your wise counsel and succinct analysis... and be aware that I value MORE THAN ANYTHING, in any writer, extreme brevity while communicating the same message.
You’ll note that my editorials are extremely brief, yet they communicate well. I do this, when writing: I pour out a stream of consciousness, then I go back, re-read, pull out the salient points, trash the other 95%, then weave the lines together.
He didn’t say he was right every single time; he said that he has been right more than wrong. So you show one example of when he was wrong as if that proves something.?
[Wish FR had a “follow” function. ]
http://freerepublic.com/tag/by:jimnoble/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change
Trump won white women last time over Hillary even with this GRAB EM BY THE WOO HAA remark.
Shooo fly
They can’t beat Trump. Only Trump can beat Trump.
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Someone is behind the scenes pushing for him to be less MAGA and more Bushite as you said. That’s what hurt him the first couple of weeks after the riot and that silly “police reform” EO.
A familiar refrain lately has been “Hillary wasn’t up by this much”.
But I doubt they are so confident or else they wouldn’t have unveiled this latest Russia nonsense.
Excellent piece LS...
Biden’s poll numbers are high because polls AND pollsters are manipulated by democrats.
Thanks Laz. I was scheduled to be in AT for the SE Homeschool Convention in late July, but withdrew. It’s very expensive to attend (that hotel ain’t cheap, but it’s the only one convenient) and I can’t fly cross country anymore that isn’t first class. Too old.
I was concerned that the China Virus might still have a dragging effect. So we’ll get together another time.
Dunno, my friend, about skipping that Homeschool event. With Covid-19 keeping schools shut down, this might be the best time ever to sell the line of product you own. Might be well worth an expensive hotel.... :)
Surely Trump campaign’s own polling is accurate, right? What does their polling show? Thank you, Larry.
Once he's officially the nominee, Trump will begin hanging all that on the line - and it is a monstrous collection - plagiarism, Ukraine, China, groping women and young girls, rape accusations, enriching family members, life long record of being wrong, current decrepit mental state, quid pro quo conversations on tape, Hunter's Chinese hedge fund, etc.
And the stupid old fart will phumpfer and stumble around, completely unable to counter the onslaught of verifiable accusations and information.
I’m going to take this opportunity to reply to my list and answer several threads at once.
First, yesterday President Trump tweeted that his internal polling was very good, especially in battleground states, and indicating he was on course for reelection.
What is significant to me is that he rarely mentions internals, but constantly touts public polls. I think the campaign is fed up with these goofball polls showing Biteme with a lead. I trust his internals.
Second, it is clear that over the last two weeks the template has gone out: “Trump is trailing badly and needs to change message.”
All the people telling Trump to “change message” are precisely the culprits you’d expect to want him to change message because he’s winning. GOP “operatives” (never named, but you know this is Yoda Wilson, Cheri Succubus, Steve (Perpetual Loser) Schmidt, plus the usual neverTrump Bill Kristol, Bootless, and Goldburger. There isn’t a single MAGA person who wants Trump to “change” messaging. If anything, they want him to be even bolder with it. Then there was the predictable Peggy Noonan.
I MAINTAINED THAT THE PURPOSE OF THIS “CHANGE MESSAGE” OFFENSIVE WAS TWO FOLD: 1) Get Trump off what is working, and more importantly, a message the DemoKKKrats cannot counter; and 2) persuade wobbly senators to back off Trump, thus ensuring their defeat.
Lo and behold, I’m proven right immediately. Last night Mike Braun, newly elected, comes out on the Tuckster’s show for BLM. Fortunately, he isn’t up this cycle. The others who are up-—McSally and Gardner-—have never been with Trump on his message, and they were slotted to lose anyway.
Rush picked up on this yesterday too. I do sense that Trump is holding back on a second-term big picture message for now. I think this is wise. With the China Virus Part Deux and the riots, I think big picture messages will get lost in the noise. Expect something around August, or maybe at the 4th of July celebrations next week.
This week there was VERY GOOD polling, besides Trump’s private polling, in WI and MI.
Trafalgar has MI a tie (Biteme with a slight lead, to be expected at this point with shy and even concerned-for-their-safety Trump voters) while another outfit had Trump up 4-5 in WI. These are big, big blows to Biteme. I think Trump underperforms in almost all polls, a point confirmed by several pieces this week. But here is one that should really make you smile: Trump likely to win PA again https://t.co/cwRGhGOAWX?amp=1 This analysis says Trump will likely win PA even though it predicts Weld will take a good chunk of GOP vote. I doubt that. He’ll take some, but I don’t think given the situation in the cities that people this time around will waste a 3rd party vote.
Although Ds are stronger now in the burbs, Rs have cut D registration lead by over 100,000 statewide and crushed it in the rurals and outlier counties that Trump won in 2016. This analysis says Trump should take PA again.
Finally, yet another new Rasmussen survey has him at (as I recall) 28% with blacks. This is one of six ongoing polls that for three and a half years has had Trump between 15% and 25% approval, so he is inching up even further there. I expect he’ll get half that approval number, or roughly 12% actual black vote, but that another 5-8% will stay home, especially in key states. (In 2016, black vote was down 3% in PA, FL, NC and others) This cost Cankles PA and FL almost certainly. (difference there was 110,000 and 70,000 respectively). I expect Trump will double both margins in 2020, or win FL by about 200,000 and PA by about 130,000.
A final thought: they had to bring up “muh Russia” again. This signaled the end of the “change the message” offensive. It failed (as they all do). “Muh Russia” was the weakest yet.
I’ve already requested the refund. I’m doing pretty darn well from home here. We had our best month ever, and might pass all of 2019’s revenues by the end of July.
Thanks, Larry.
Our turnout should offset their voter fraud. I hope to God it does.
What about down ballot support? I think we retain the Senate barely and cut losses in the House but remain the minority.
Thank you for your insight LS.
Thank for the update Larry I appreciate it buddy.
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