Surely Trump campaign’s own polling is accurate, right? What does their polling show? Thank you, Larry.
I’m going to take this opportunity to reply to my list and answer several threads at once.
First, yesterday President Trump tweeted that his internal polling was very good, especially in battleground states, and indicating he was on course for reelection.
What is significant to me is that he rarely mentions internals, but constantly touts public polls. I think the campaign is fed up with these goofball polls showing Biteme with a lead. I trust his internals.
Second, it is clear that over the last two weeks the template has gone out: “Trump is trailing badly and needs to change message.”
All the people telling Trump to “change message” are precisely the culprits you’d expect to want him to change message because he’s winning. GOP “operatives” (never named, but you know this is Yoda Wilson, Cheri Succubus, Steve (Perpetual Loser) Schmidt, plus the usual neverTrump Bill Kristol, Bootless, and Goldburger. There isn’t a single MAGA person who wants Trump to “change” messaging. If anything, they want him to be even bolder with it. Then there was the predictable Peggy Noonan.
I MAINTAINED THAT THE PURPOSE OF THIS “CHANGE MESSAGE” OFFENSIVE WAS TWO FOLD: 1) Get Trump off what is working, and more importantly, a message the DemoKKKrats cannot counter; and 2) persuade wobbly senators to back off Trump, thus ensuring their defeat.
Lo and behold, I’m proven right immediately. Last night Mike Braun, newly elected, comes out on the Tuckster’s show for BLM. Fortunately, he isn’t up this cycle. The others who are up-—McSally and Gardner-—have never been with Trump on his message, and they were slotted to lose anyway.
Rush picked up on this yesterday too. I do sense that Trump is holding back on a second-term big picture message for now. I think this is wise. With the China Virus Part Deux and the riots, I think big picture messages will get lost in the noise. Expect something around August, or maybe at the 4th of July celebrations next week.
This week there was VERY GOOD polling, besides Trump’s private polling, in WI and MI.
Trafalgar has MI a tie (Biteme with a slight lead, to be expected at this point with shy and even concerned-for-their-safety Trump voters) while another outfit had Trump up 4-5 in WI. These are big, big blows to Biteme. I think Trump underperforms in almost all polls, a point confirmed by several pieces this week. But here is one that should really make you smile: Trump likely to win PA again https://t.co/cwRGhGOAWX?amp=1 This analysis says Trump will likely win PA even though it predicts Weld will take a good chunk of GOP vote. I doubt that. He’ll take some, but I don’t think given the situation in the cities that people this time around will waste a 3rd party vote.
Although Ds are stronger now in the burbs, Rs have cut D registration lead by over 100,000 statewide and crushed it in the rurals and outlier counties that Trump won in 2016. This analysis says Trump should take PA again.
Finally, yet another new Rasmussen survey has him at (as I recall) 28% with blacks. This is one of six ongoing polls that for three and a half years has had Trump between 15% and 25% approval, so he is inching up even further there. I expect he’ll get half that approval number, or roughly 12% actual black vote, but that another 5-8% will stay home, especially in key states. (In 2016, black vote was down 3% in PA, FL, NC and others) This cost Cankles PA and FL almost certainly. (difference there was 110,000 and 70,000 respectively). I expect Trump will double both margins in 2020, or win FL by about 200,000 and PA by about 130,000.
A final thought: they had to bring up “muh Russia” again. This signaled the end of the “change the message” offensive. It failed (as they all do). “Muh Russia” was the weakest yet.