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100,000 US Deaths Starting in June
My Projection Based on Data Source WorldofMeters.Info ^ | 14 May 2015 | Vanity

Posted on 05/14/2020 7:27:43 PM PDT by amorphous

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To: Cronos
it would be good if you read before copy pasting. i said Norway/Denmark excluding Greenland — Norway-Denmark are equivalent in population, area and population density to Sweden. And with that, they are also culturally similar since the Kalmar era and earlier. Sweden however has 5 times as many deaths per million as Norway-Denmark combined (taking N-D excluding Greenland as a single unit). Net-net, Sweden’s policy is resulting in 5 times as many deaths (whether in total or in deaths per million) — showing that lockdowns DO save lives

Actually i read that but could not believe that while you exclude Greenland you combine two different countries, Norway-Denmark, yet the latter has a population density of 350 vs 60 for Sweden. And while similar in culture and Covid response, yet,

while Norway has followed Denmark, it has tended to go a little further.

 
Denmark has banned gatherings of more than 10, Norway has banned gatherings of more than five. Denmark never stopped people from travelling or staying away from home within Denmark, although it encouraged them to stay at home over Easter.
 
While Denmark banned foreigners from entering Denmark unless they were cross-border workers or residents, Norway also forced anyone arriving from abroad, including Norwegian citizens, into two weeks of quarantine.  
 
Denmark never issued restrictions on travel within its borders. Norway's cabin-ban, lifted this week, effectively meant Norwegians had to stay in the municipality where they were registered as living. Finland went even further, and put the whole of the Uusimaa region around the city of Helsinki into quarantine. 
(https://www.thelocal.com/20200421/explained-are-denmark-and-norways-restrictions-still-tougher-than-swedens)

That the death rate for Denmark is only 97 vs. 47 for Norway and 389 Sweden speaks well (in that comparison) for Denmark despite having a much higher pop. density.

However, my argument was and I still contend that the extreme all-ages "stay-sheltered" US restrictions (in so many Democrat states) are unprecedented and while providing a short-term again, they will end up causing even more deaths, which was my argument. Already as regards just one area, we have reports such as “Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus,” and “Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus,” (https://abc7.com/suicide-hotline-calls-coronavirus-covid19-los-angeles/6117099/; https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/; https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm)

141 posted on 05/23/2020 3:22:47 AM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212

I combine Norway with Denmark as combined they have a population density similar to Sweden. They were also one country until the Napoleonic wars and along with the Swedes have significant cultural similarities.

Assuming Denmark excluding Greenland is combined with norway it makes for a good comparison with Sweden.

And for now Sweden’s approach has resulted in 5 times more deaths/10k. Extrapolating that to the usa or any other country is a valid extrapolation if the latter country kept Sweden’s social distancing and self lockdown.


142 posted on 05/24/2020 9:25:20 PM PDT by Cronos (Re-elect President Trump 2020!)
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To: amorphous

1 day late

100,000 deaths was crossed only on the 26th of May.

By June 1 it would be 102K.

By June 30, since the overall trend is lower, it would probably be in the range of 114K to 120K, with it more likely being a the lower end


143 posted on 05/27/2020 4:09:41 AM PDT by Cronos (Re-elect President Trump 2020!)
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To: DiogenesLamp

After about 1.25 years the swine flu was estimated at 300,000 deaths. Estimated deaths for Covid-19 after 5 months is 352,000. That includes the low-ball numbers that China has put out.

That said - the CV19 numbers are coming down much sooner than the swine flu, so hopefully as we open things up folks will keep taking precautions and keep it going down.


144 posted on 05/27/2020 4:32:46 AM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant. Never Fearful!)
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To: Cronos
1 day late

"They" couldn't have that sort of milestone occur on Memorial Day.

I look for the data become even more skewed, depending upon who has the most control over it. Unless today's numbers are back on track, with case history, we've either had significant improvement of treatment, past data fudging is being corrected, or someone is lying about the true number of those who are presently dying.

Only recently a webmaster in Florida was fired for not altering the state's numbers.

Regardless, not having accurate and timely data during this day and age is unacceptable.

145 posted on 05/27/2020 10:54:42 AM PDT by amorphous
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