Posted on 04/23/2020 10:12:12 AM PDT by grundle
On March 30, 2020, I wrote:
Its possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people havent gotten substantially sick, and so havent gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. Its possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, dont get tested. If this is indeed the case, then its possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
It turns out that I was right.
The irresponsible, biased, and scaremonger mainstream media has been dishonestly and grossly overstating the death rate of COVID-19 in order to try to justify totalitarian lockdowns and economic destruction.
Here are examples of doctors and scientists showing that the real COVID-19 death rate is far, far lower than what the mainstream media has been saying.
March 26, 2020: “Stanford medical professors: COVID-19 death toll estimates may be orders of magnitude too high”: https://www.theblaze.com/news/stanford_coronavirus_too_high_death
March 26, 2020: New England Journal of Medicine: the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%): https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR3psHRYCZL1uIMKU2cJuSrpcc7SCs7kAIjjfDCmXqG_bOjcWd2Li-xXZHs
April 8, 2020: From a medical paper: The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City)”: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1
April 11, 2020: The Economist: Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu.: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news
April 18, 2020: Stanford University researchers: “Between 50 and 85 times as many people in Santa Clara County have coronavirus antibodies as have tested positive for the virus.”: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
April 20, 2020: Los Angeles County: “Based on the first round of testing, the research team estimated that roughly 4.1% of the countys adult population has developed antibodies to the virus an indication they are or were infected at some point. Adjusting for the statistical margin of error implies that approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.”: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/early-antibody-testing-indicates-far-more-covid-19-cases-lower-mortality-rate/2349275/
April 20, 2020: Los Angeles County: the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu: https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
If we want to know just how pervasive it really was better than coming up with bullshit numbers.
Or how about we just estimate the census as well
Extreme overage is underway and expect the lockdown to resume in September if it ever lifts before then. Expect the next lockdown to last until June have a nice Effen life
Yup. Not sure I follow.
Testing 350m people will give us an exact number at that point in time (maybe a month long process?) using tons of resources and people to take and run the tests.
Versus
Testing a well chosen statistically random and diverse range of multiple samples, diverse in terms of age, state, income, city vs rural, etc., etc. will give us the same number as an estimate within a few decimal points at one thousandth the cost and resources.
But the good part of testing is it does find iG donors.
We arent taking a statistical sample at all. We are telling people who believe theyve been exposed or more likely to test positive to get tested we are biasing the numbers towards positive matches.
We are telling people who either have had it and got over it or do not have it they probably should not get tested.
In my city the free testing is being offered more in the Minority majority areas with low income households thats not a statistical sample of the city
“Decimate” under states what has happened in many of our nursing homes. You do not know the facts so when you do get back to me.
Dan from Squirrel Hill and his sidekick grundle? What a clown show.
John Ioannidis was a co-author of the Santa Clara study
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
John Ioannidis gave an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox last night
He stated his study “is subject to scrutiny and needs to be peer-reviewed” and “the infection can be devastating”. He says the “initial decision to have full lockdowns were fully justified.” “the best scientists in the world were fully correct in making these decision”(3:50 in the video). it is a “crisis”, “many hospitals were not prepared to deal with wartime conditions” “many hospital workers can be infected” (5:00 in video) “we need to salvage hospitals which are under major threat” “we should take careful steps to open our societies with science” (5:58 in video) “I would avoid putting a lot of trust in predictions because we just don’t know” “we don’t know whether and how big a spike will be in winter” “I don’t think we should say here’s an expert who was wrong, here’s an expert who was right”
Basically he is walking back his claims that Covid19 is like seasonal flu
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6151202533001#sp=show-clips
Eran Bendavid was another author of the Santa Clara study, and he said yesterday
The comparison with the flu can be polarizing. I hope thats not the headline, Eran Bendavid, an infectious disease professor at Stanford and a coleader of the study, said at a press conference Friday, where he stressed that the seriousness of the pandemic shouldnt be understated.
https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/
The tests used in the study were from Premier Biotech, which obtained them from Chinese sources who were not FDA approved.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/unapproved-chinese-coronavirus-antibody-tests-being-used-least-2-states-n1185131
“It turns out that I was right.”
You are a norom, which spelled backwards is..
You were so wrong it is sickening.
Actually its at least 20 times worse than the flu. 20% of NYC (1,700,000) was estimated to have Covid19 antibodies and 14,000 have already died. That is .8%. The estimated flu death rate is .1%
But just like Covid19, the regular flu has non-symptomatic cases, estimated to be 75% of infections. So the infection mortality rate for seasonal flu is one quarter of .1% if you take into account everyone infected, not just those with symptoms. With Covid19 serology tests we are finding many people who are positive but dont have symptoms. But for an apples to apples comparison with the seasonal flu you have to do the same thing, calculate based on all infections not just symptomatic infections. So, if NYC Covid infection mortality rate is .5% (actually they didnt include probable deaths in this, which gives you an IFR of .8%), it is 20 times deadlier than regular flu.
.5% / .025% = 20 times deadlier than flu
.8% / .025% = 32 times deadlier than flu
Take your pick, its not the flu bro it is a monster.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-virus-deaths-top-15k-cuomo-expected-to-detail-plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Have you ever been to a nursing home? You should visit one and see how long you can stand to be there. I have been to a few because of old people and for nursing school and they are not generally pleasant places to be. The people there are a lot of times on deaths door. The coroner probably goes by there 3 times a week. 120 to 140 beds. People arrive in non emergency transport and rarely leave any other way than a coroners wagon. Decimate means 10% deaths.
I’m not going to research but look at the nursing homes in SW GeorgiaAlbany, Americus, Dawson, Camilla and surrounding counties and you will see much more than the normal rate of deaths, Decimate comes not close to the deaths in the local nursing homes. That’s a fact...Maybe you have your mind made up that this is some sort of conspiracy against the citizens of our country, but it’s not. This is a very dangerous virusespecially for certain segments of our population.
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