A Comparison of Lockdown UK With Non-Lockdown Sweden, Which Country is Faring Better?

The Blogmire ^ | 04/15/2020 | Rob Slane

[SeekAndFind]

So far as I am aware, Sweden remains the only major Western country that has not imposed a strict lockdown on its citizens to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak. Other than a ban on gatherings of 50 or more people, and advice such as over-70s being urged to stay at home, Swedish schools, shops, restaurants and pubs all remain open. It almost seems to me that the Government there has decided to treat grown adults like they are … well grown adults.

However, despite being a sovereign nation, with the right to set its own policy, it appears that this is not acceptable to the “international community”, and the Swedish Government is coming under huge pressure to change course. The World Health Organization (WHO), for instance, recently called for the nation to impose more restrictions, saying that it is “imperative” that Sweden:

“increase measures to control spread of the virus, prepare and increase capacity of the health system to cope, ensure physical distancing and communicate the why and how of all measures to the population.”

Donald Trump also felt the need to give his two cents as well:

“Sweden did that, the herd, they call it the herd. Sweden’s suffering very, very badly.”

But is Sweden really suffering very, very badly in comparison to other countries that have imposed severe restrictions? Is it really imperative that they change course and fall in line with what most other countries have done? Or do these calls proceed from a different motive entirely: a fear that Sweden’s comparatively measured approach of dealing with Covid-19 without introducing the most draconian civil restrictions ever seen and without crashing its economy might actually work and in so doing show the response of other countries to have been wildly disproportionate?

This is not something we should leave to a matter of opinion, so let’s instead look at what the data tells us. Below are four charts comparing the UK, which went into lockdown on 23rd March, with Sweden and its far more relaxed approach. All the data on these charts comes from the official reports from both countries up to and including 11th April (here and here). It comes with the caveats that of course this is by no means final and the situation may well change to produce a very different picture in the coming weeks, nor is it possible to know with any certainty whether both countries are counting their cases and deaths in a way that is consistent with one another. Nevertheless, since it is from official data sources, it is the best guide we currently have to what is happening in both countries.

(Note: Charts 1 and 3 compare cases and deaths in absolute terms. Charts 2 and 4 take into account the relative population sizes (UK = 67.9 million; Sweden = 10.10 million) by looking at the number of cases per million people).

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

(Note: In terms of timelines, Sweden reported its first Covid-cases eight days before the UK (15 on 3rd March, compared with 77 on 11th March in the UK), whilst the UK recorded its first deaths two days before Sweden (10 on 14th March, compared with 4 for Sweden on 16th March)).

Looking at these charts, particularly charts 2 and 4 which are a like-for-like comparison, as at 11th April, I think we can say the following:

1. In terms of reported cases, the data shows no evidence that the UK lockdown approach has been any more successful than the Swedish approach. In fact, per million people, Sweden has had fewer cases than the UK.
2. In terms of recorded deaths, again there is no evidence so far that the UK lockdown approach has been any more successful than the Swedish approach. In fact, per million people, Sweden has had fewer deaths than the UK.

As I say, the situation may well change as the days and weeks go by, but so far, according to the official data from both countries, the approach taken in the UK of keeping people in their homes and closing down huge swathes of the economy, has not had any more positive effect on reducing Covid-19 cases or deaths than the Swedish approach. Yet it will put millions out of work, it will destroy thousands of businesses, it will lead to a massive deterioration of mental health, it will lead to an increase in suicides, it will lead to old people dying on their own without their carers, and it already has led to an increase of state power on a scale never seen before. There is that!

[SeekAndFind]

[Reaganez]

The country most similar to Sweden isn’t the UK nor Denmark which have much higher population densities.

It is Norway 38 people per square mile vs Sweden at 64 vs the UK at 274.

Norway and Sweden have similar rates of obesity,diabetes,hypertension and other comorbidities like percentage living in multigenerational households.

Death rate per 1 million population?

Norway 27
Sweden 119

[Oshkalaboomboom]

They should have a few more charts comparing unemployment, business failures, school days lost, etc. and see how they compare.

[DannyTN]

Sweden has a Case Fatality Rate over 10%. Either they aren’t testing very much or they are horrible at treating it.

If you don’t test, you don’t have any cases.

[Boogieman]

Sweden doesn’t need to use the virus as an excuse to impose socialism, because they already have socialism.

[fireman15]

Norway and Sweden have similar rates of obesity,diabetes,hypertension and other comorbidities like percentage living in multigenerational households.

Sweden has a far higher percentage of the population who are immigrants than Norway... 24% vs 15%. They also had cases and deaths before Norway. This is a much better predictor of infection rates.

[wildcard_redneck]

“Death rate per 1 million population?

Norway 27
Sweden 119”

No reasonable government would shut down an entire country for the deaths of 92 people. if Norway had one plane crash that killed over 100 people when they shut down the airline industry? Of course not.

[SmokingJoe]

Lockdowns don't work
As far as I can see, lockdowns have never worked anywhere.
In New York City the overwhelming majority of coronavirus infections came AFTER the lockdowns, when most New Yorkers had already been exposed to the virus in the tightly overcrowded subway trains and from going to all these Chinese New Year parades in The Chinatowns because DeBlasio and The NYC Health Commissioner exhorted everybody to go, saying “There is nothing to worry about folks”

[ArmstedFragg]

Chart 2 is interesting in that it appears to be a pretty clear illustration that without defensive measures the disease goes through its cycle more rapidly, but otherwise moves in the same predictable fashion. Sweden had a higher rate of infection early on, and then reached that double peak earlier too. Other than that, the lines look quite similar.

[Sam Gamgee]

No, but if we are playing the all or nothing game of the media then 119 to 27 is significant.

But you are right, 1500 dead people (based on 12 million swedes) seems like a small cost for keeping the economy going.

[DoodleBob]

This seems like a good place to post my tracking of COVID-19 deaths by country and select US states. For those of you new to this analysis, I standardize each municipality's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count from GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each municipality's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference.

Below are the data. Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 21 is April 14 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date (i.e., Day 23 for Georgia is that state's COVID-19 cumulative population-adjusted fatality count for April 14), but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "21st hole." The order is alphabetical.

America's rank vs other countries hasn't changed in days. Swedend's adjusted fatality count is 2,839 higher than the US' but they haven't torched their service economy - but if they get a bunch of infections soon then we'll know it was a bad approach.

Special note: I'd accidentally over-adjusted the UK's fatalities previously; they're good now. Please pray for those impacted.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Population	Day 17	Day 18	Day 19	Day 20	Day 21	Day 22	Day 23	Day 24
San Marino	3/3/20	33,574	107,974	137,421	196,316	196,316	196,316	206,132	206,132	206,132
New York	3/20/20	19,795,791	69,271	79,210	92,612	104,348	117,650	130,585	143,621	156,240
Andorra	3/21/20	77,543	89,250	93,500	97,750	106,250	110,500	110,500	123,249	123,249
New Jersey	3/23/20	8,958,013	55,331	62,541	71,076	80,310	86,454	89,876	103,193	-
Spain	3/13/20	47,100,396	47,600	53,988	59,222	65,680	72,404	78,351	83,592	88,448
Belgium	3/19/20	11,524,454	36,689	41,379	46,669	58,193	64,056	72,148	86,332	95,683
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	11,700	56,334	56,334	56,334	56,334	56,334	-	-	-
Michigan	3/24/20	9,922,576	35,737	42,512	46,199	49,354	53,174	58,654	-	-
Connecticut	3/23/20	3,590,886	30,745	34,875	41,116	45,337	50,844	55,249	61,582	-
France	3/18/20	67,076,000	32,034	37,212	39,762	43,855	50,817	53,490	60,078	64,928
Louisiana	3/20/20	4,670,724	33,656	36,126	41,065	46,004	49,532	53,271	56,870	59,269
Massachusetts	3/25/20	6,794,422	29,054	33,274	36,669	40,937	46,418	-	-	-
Italy	3/5/20	60,243,406	26,395	29,956	33,244	37,308	41,045	44,939	49,967	54,830
United Kingdom	3/20/20	66,435,550	24,520	26,713	30,612	35,274	39,650	44,516	49,070	52,726
Netherlands	3/17/20	17,451,031	25,324	28,138	31,273	33,445	35,390	39,809	42,585	45,380
Sweden	3/23/20	10,333,456	21,910	25,290	27,746	28,288	28,671	29,309	32,945	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	8,586,550	18,730	20,572	22,683	25,561	27,442	29,361	31,510	34,351
Ireland	3/25/20	4,921,500	19,218	21,428	22,366	24,441	27,187	-	-	-
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	18,586	20,463	22,020	23,529	25,832	-	-	-
District of Columbia	3/24/20	672,228	15,688	18,629	23,042	24,512	25,493	32,846	-	-
Luxembourg	3/17/20	613,894	16,105	16,642	16,642	19,326	22,010	23,620	24,694	27,915
Colorado	3/24/20	5,456,574	13,710	15,280	16,549	17,515	18,602	19,870	-	-
Macedonia	3/24/20	679,600	14,548	15,518	16,488	16,488	18,427	21,337	-	-
Portugal	3/23/20	10,276,617	12,186	13,116	13,950	15,072	16,163	17,157	18,183	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,822,763	11,489	12,338	13,414	13,980	14,715	15,451	16,130	16,923
Georgia	3/23/20	10,214,860	11,937	13,292	13,712	13,937	14,131	15,454	16,680	-
Germany	3/25/20	83,149,300	10,967	10,844	11,977	12,659	13,056	-	-	-
Nevada	3/24/20	2,890,845	9,348	9,804	12,654	12,882	12,996	14,820	-	-
Austria	3/23/20	8,902,600	10,106	10,920	11,809	12,475	12,956	13,623	14,215	-
Vermont	3/18/20	626,042	8,949	10,528	11,581	12,107	12,107	12,107	12,107	12,634
Iran	3/9/20	83,331,064	8,214	8,835	9,404	9,954	10,441	10,903	11,461	12,007
Washington	3/8/20	7,170,351	5,653	5,975	6,940	8,135	8,779	9,514	10,157	10,387
Iceland	3/23/20	364,260	5,428	5,428	6,333	7,238	7,238	7,238	7,238	-
Cyprus	3/23/20	875,900	3,386	3,762	3,762	3,762	4,139	4,515	4,515	-

[DannyTN]

UK was late on their lockdown.

Sweden on the other hand has the lowest population density in Europe.

Sweden also has a Case Fatality Rate > 10%. Implying that they are only testing very sick patients, so their cases are understated relative to other countries. It’s either that or they’re really bad about caring for their sick.

[dp0622]

bro maybe i’m dumb or everyone else is afraid to say it

i don’t know WHAT THE #### your chart is showing :)

[aMorePerfectUnion]

... can you work NZ into the mix?

[DoodleBob]

a lot of numbers...

Basically, my chart shows that the US is right in the middle of the pack of all major countries in terms of COVID-19 fatalities when you adjust for the total population (you'd expect more deaths in American than a nation of 5MM people) and when the virus struck the nation.

If you don't make that adjustment, you can arrive at bad conclusions.

That's the gist of it.

[DoodleBob]

NZ, like Canada, is simply not doing its part to be part of the global tragedy. NZ's nine COVID-19 fatalities as of yesterday across 4,974,995 people comes to 596 adjusted fatalities.

Similarly, Australia's 25,665,337 people had 62 fatalities or 796 on an adjusted basis as of April 14.

Maybe if they started counting car accident victims with a flu as a COVID fatality then we'd see some action.

[Sam Gamgee]

I see that magically the new way the counts have been adjusted, voila, we will hit 60,000 sooner than later. Will anyone even remember the only reason the numbers are higher is they are now counting people as dead from COVID there were not counting before? Too complex for the stupid media to comprehend.

[DoodleBob]

If you go to the GitHub website where the raw data for the JH website are posted, there are LOTS of people who notice this change and are peeved about it. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/issues. Indeed:

Perhaps due to confusion about presumed vs. confirmed deaths. What happened is that the CDC issued new guidelines asking states and localities to tabulate presumed covid-19 deaths as well as confirmed deaths. NYC was one of the first localities to separately report presumed and confirmed coronavirus deaths. Some newspapers reported "a new death toll" by combining both reports. Presumably, over time the presumed deaths will be investigated and some of them will be determined to be confirmed deaths. Until then, the previously reported confirmed death tolls remain what they are.