Posted on 04/13/2020 5:35:47 AM PDT by Hojczyk
This post is to help physicians, thought leaders and public officials understand and weigh the risks and benefits of extended lockdowns versus more measured and earlier return to work measures.
1..We have already flattened the curve
This is with the likely over reporting of death.
2. Economic collapse and unemployment are destroying families
Each day the shutdown continues, we are losing approximately one million jobs
3. We have not saturated the health care system
4... Suicide may kill almost as many people as COVID-19 this year.
5...The mortality was likely overestimated
The IHME model, as well as Dr. Fauci have recently decreased the likely deaths from this pandemic to around 60,000 from earlier estimates of 1–2 million.The early reports of 3–4% case fatality rate (CFR) are likely misleading.
7....Children are at almost no risk from this disease.
This year we have lost 105 children from the flu. Yet, we have closed every school in America.
8...Authorities should show clear evidence regarding the benefits of indefinite lockdown
The previous models were wrong. The consequences of indefinite lockdown are quite staggering, to the tune of one million jobs lost per day.
(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...
Wow. It sure is refreshing to hear from a Doc who CAN see the forest for the trees.
They have already succeeded at severely damaging the economy. However, the Democrats are not going to let up UNTIL they have secured power through the elections. Then, they will go after EVERY single person who opposed them. I worked with them for years in various jobs. Know the mindset. People have NO clue.
Fauci is a plant for Hillary.
You betcha.
You think the Bucs could draw 3000? What an optimist!
It is the globalists power grab to Dump Trump. He is the wall in front of him. We Christians, conservatives, Patriots, true American citizens, are the only thing standing in the way with him and we are fast becoming the few and the proud. They get rid of us, they win. BUT, they are not going to win. GOD is in control. He will not let them get what they want. Once the Harpazo takes place, this world is going to hell fast. Death, destruction like has never been seen before. 1.75 BILLION will die in the first part of the Tribulation. I know that there are many here that do not believe it. However, they had better be right. They will do so at their own peril. They had better be right. But, they are not. Simple as that. I believe what the Bible says. Its called Faith in what GOD says.
Communist governments are implemented to “save people from themselves”
IMO the lock down is to protect people from themselves.
********************************************
We had to destroy the nation in order to save it.
“Flattening the curve” will not end the threat of this virus, it will only slow down the rate of infection and spread. IMO, there will be continuous breakouts of this virus around the world until the entire herd is immune by way of having been infected and recovered or vaccine.
Send this letter to your state governor
Who wants to be blamed for the biggest screw up in history?
Not Dr. Fauci.....
I think appointing a commission is a good idea, if they work 24/7 and start the opening plan in two weeks.
So what is rhe plan for reopening? Do we do it all at once on say May 1 or does it roll out gradually based on certain measures? If it’s a rolllout of some type, the Administration should start messaging those measures so communities can start planning. We are only a couple of weeks away from May 1.
We need a phased opening. All republicans should be released to return to work. 30 days after that they can release democrats.
Yesterday, my wife got the sad news that a member of her church congregation (which last met on March 9th) has come down with the virus. She worked at Wal-Mart, truly the most dangerous place in Westmoreland County ever since the Wolf was unleashed.
Fauci to USA Today Editorial Board well into the ***THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY. neither the Board nor Fauci show concern about the US:
17 Feb updated 18 Feb 2020: USA Today: FAUCI: ‘Danger of getting coronavirus now is just minisculely low’
Q: How confident are you that the Chinese are doing what needs to be done?
FAUCI: They’re doing things that have completely broken the paradigm of how you respond. They have been, in a draconian way, shutting down everything. They have locked down 50 million people, including the entire 11 million-person city of Wuhan. They will not allow anyone into Beijing unless they have a 14-day quarantine. They’re essentially locking people who test positive in their houses. I mean, they’re doing things that are almost unheard of in the annals of public health...
Q: That would never happen here, would it? Locking down 50 million people?
FAUCI: No, not a chance. It would never happen...
Q: How can you protect yourself against both flu and coronavirus?
FAUCI: Do what we tell you to do all the time. Wash your hands as frequently as you can. Stay away from crowded places where people are coughing and sneezing. If, in fact you are coughing and sneezing, cover your cough. All the things that we say each year. That’s the thing we should be doing right now. But the danger of getting coronavirus now is just minisculely low.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/02/17/new-coronavirus-what-dont-we-know-dr-anthony-fauci-q-a-opinion/4790996002/
THIRD WEEK IN FEBRUARY AGAIN:
12 Apr: NYT: Trump Lashes Out at Fauci Amid Criticism of Slow Virus Response
The president retweeted a post calling for the government’s top infectious disease specialist to be fired after the doctor acknowledged that shutting down the country earlier could have saved lives.
By Peter Baker
By the THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY, advisers had drafted a list of measures they believed would soon be necessary, like school closures, sports and concert cancellations and stay-at-home orders, but the president did not embrace them until mid-March.
Dr. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, said on Sunday that earlier imposition of such policies would have made a difference...
(Fauci ON CNN) “Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated. But you’re right. Obviously, if we had, right from the very beginning, shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down.”...
Public health experts like Dr. Fauci have urged caution about resuming normal life too soon for fear of instigating another wave of illness and death...
Dr. Fauci has become a celebrated figure among much of the public, which trusts him far more than Mr. Trump, according to polls...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/politics/trump-fauci-coronavirus.html
CNN/NYT/AP/SCHIFF - CONCERTED EFFORT TO GET TRUMP ON EASTER SUNDAY. IF THERE REALLY WAS A GENUINE SCARY PANDEMIC, WOULD THEY REALLY BEHAVE THIS WAY?
Not a problem. I'm not a "forever shutdowner" but the post is inaccurate. The curve is not flat.
Now, here's my response. We could have overcome this very early on. But, we didn't. We didn't take this seriously enough. We still don't.
1) If we would have quarantined the original small group that popped up instead of letting them roam free infecting everyone, this would all be over with by now. But, we didn't.
2) Since we didn't do #1 above, we could have immediately locked down the sensitive population to this virus and made them stay at home. We could have then taken care of them by bringing them anything they need and seeing to their needs. This is America, and we do this for everyone on the planet. We can certainly do it for our own. The young and healthy could just go to work if they choose. But, I think you would find that the "sensitive population" to this virus is much bigger than you think, but there would probably be a few more people working than are working now. If your too stupid to believe that you could get sick and die from this and expose yourself anyway, then it's on you. Don't expect to be put at the front of the line when you go to the emergency room. And, if you knowingly expose others to this virus, we prosecute you the same as we would those who do the same thing with AIDS. This method would have also ended this by now by letting the virus run it's course and burn itself out. But, we didn't do it.
Since we didn't do #1 or #2 above, we are stuck with prolonging this thing until effective meds and PPE are easily accessible to EVERYBODY. Then, we could engage in a quicker and more efficient version of #2 above. But, until the meds and PPE happen, we are stuck where we are. But, just in my county, they are still using four-day tests and only if you need hospitalization, healthcare workers are still crying for N95 masks, and the miracle drugs seem to be non-existent. So, I don't see this "peaking" in my area anytime soon. But, the upside to my county is about 75 percent of the working population is deemed "essential" and is still working.
Nobody has yet worked out a benefit-cost ratio for opening the economy up, even incrementally. Nobody yet is calling for a wholesale launch, but it would seem that the decision to proceed should lie with the individual state. Almost all Democrat strongholds, have had SERIOUS problems with specific hotspots in their states, and have held the ENTIRE state to the same standard, whether the locality is threatened or not.
For example, most of Michigan or Illinois could be opened up, as well as New York State outside the metro areas.
There will be pockets where the population is little impacted at present, that could go into a hotspot condition were this policy to be applied, but not to the degree that local hospital facilities would be overwhelmed, which was the whole point of the national quarantine. There shall continue to be new infections, and yes, some deaths, but the medical profession is getting a better handle on this all the time. Meanwhile, the pool of recovered and no longer infectious persons continues to grow, and the hoped-for “herd immunity” effect kicks in.
In twelve to eighteen months, adequate and reliable vaccine supplies will be in plentiful supply, and the business of business should be able to be re-established.
But the need for reopening is NOW, on whatever piecemeal basis it can be done.
9. We’ve changed behavior
10. We have evidence of being able to treat it
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