Posted on 04/12/2020 1:26:02 PM PDT by grundle
Iceland has tested 10% of its population for COVID-19, by far the largest percentage of any country.
And it has discovered that the fatality rate is 0.004%.
That’s lower than the flu.
Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu?
The notion that somehow, one case in China has infected billions of people in just 4 months is not mathematically supportable. It is also not biologically plausible.
It is based on the total number of confirmed cases. If you only look at the death rate of those who are hospitalized, it is much higher.
10% of them were tested.
Of those tested, half tested positive.
Extrapolated to the entire country, 182,000 people have the virus.
7 of those people have died from the virus.
7 deaths out of 182,000 people having the virus = 0.004% fatality rate.
(7 / 182,000) * 100 = 0.004%.
Good point. The U.S. and the U.K. have already had more deaths than what would be predicted based on the Iceland numbers.
If only those with symptoms have been tested, you can’t infer those tested represent the total population.
Look down the page, which is updated daily, and you will see the death figure for the U.S. I believe the numbers they quote are totaled from reports coming from individual states.
Coronavirus deaths are probably understated due to deaths at home just like infections are understated because of a lack of symptoms.
“The belief that there are millions of cases and that only some testing is needed to reveal them is wishful thinking at best.”
*******************************************
Who said there were millions of undetected cases? Certainly not me. I said there were an unknown number. Now that we now have antibody testing kits, various authorities will be doing sampling (among many other uses of the tests). For example, Stanford Medical is doing some random testing starting this week in California so we should be getting those results before long.
The article says Iceland tested at random.
If you're right in your speculated number, only 2/3 of 1% of the county's population has been exposed so far, and there's still another 76,000 of the roughly 76,500 population of his county that haven't been exposed yet. It's going to be an awfully long, sustained slowdown to the economy if we're going to let the virus works it's way though the population at less than 1% per month. Of course, it could also be that you're low on your guess, and there may have already been many thousands in that county that have been exposed with minimal effect.
PLEASE STOP POSTING YOUR MISINFORMATION/MISUNDERSTANDING of the Iceland testing. Go back and reread the article and think about it. Folks have tried to correct your misunderstanding.
“Of those tested, half tested positive. “
Absolutely, positively FALSE! Not true AT ALL!
You IDIOT. I’ve provided you with the link. Are you STUPID? Too stupid to read?
“They said fifty percent had it and were asymptomatic.”
That is a lie. Or gross stupidity on your part.
35,000 tests - about 10% of their population. 1,700 confirmed cases. 39 hospitalized (currently) with 9 currently in intensive care. 8 deaths.
“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said Guðnason. “The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”...
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3829685/posts
Let me repeat for emphasis: “ABOUT HALF OF THOSE WHO TESTED POSITIVE ARE NON-SYMPTOMATIC”
Please stop the gross stupidity. You are embarrassing FreeRepublic and us FluBros!
The point is your number is just some rando pull from whatever hat you’ve got
There aren’t enough data to justify it
It’s what the news story said
The average time is not turning out to be 23 days
Link?
https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last
It puts death at day 14-56 with exposure as day -5; I'm not seeing the disagreement with my 23.5.
The point is your number is just some rando pull from whatever hat you’ve got
There aren’t enough data to justify it
A different statement than your original, "The average time is not turning out to be 23 days."
My source is https://www.boston25news.com/news/trending/coronavirus-how-covid-19-progresses-day-by-day-breakdown-symptoms/YRC3CCK2NFD2THIYJHT35447AU/, citing https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html and https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext.
Why do you think 182,000 people in iceland have the virus?
They only have 316,000. They tested 10%, or 31,600.
Of those, 1600 tested positive.
Meanwhile, ofcthose that were tested and found positive, 7 have died.
I presume that others have died, and those may or may not have the virus. If you assume they test everybody who dies, then i suppose you could speculate that 31,000 total have it, and the death rate is .04%, but i imagine the truth is closer to .4%,
And 7 deaths is too few to give a firm number, one more or one less would skew the numbers.
Note that iceland is reporting 8 deaths and about 1100 positive tests, which seems to ignore this random sampling.
No. 10% of those tested had it. Of those 10%, 50% had no symptoms.
The article says this, but poorly.
“It’s what the news story said”
Then whoever wrote your “news story” is an idiot who cannot read. Iceland has not conducted RANDOM tests. They have, however, freely tested people without screening them first. Not quite the same thing.
They found, at least 3 weeks ago, that half of the people who tested positive were asymptomatic. NOT that half of the people tested have had the virus.
Iceland publishes their results. They are here:
35253 tested. Of those, 1701 have tested positive. That means about 850 people out of 1700 have been positive but without symptoms. Of those with the virus - 1701, 8 have died.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.