The most widespread testing so far shows that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 0.004%. That’s lower than the flu. Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu?

Wordpress ^ | April 12, 2020 | Dan from Squirrel Hill

[grundle]

The most widespread testing so far shows that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 0.004%. That’s lower than the flu. Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu?

Iceland has tested 10% of its population for COVID-19, by far the largest percentage of any country.

And it has discovered that the fatality rate is 0.004%.

That’s lower than the flu.

Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu?

[House Atreides]

“Post 84 is 100% correct; if you disagree, point out its flaw. And STOP SHOUTING, A**HOLE.”
******************************************
Sorry, but there is no way in hell that 50% (182,000) of Iceland’s entire population (I.e., old, young, adults, children, babies) are infected with the virus.

Following is a link to an article discussing Iceland’s testing. Following the link is an extract pointing out that somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% of Iceland’s population is infected. That’s less than 1% and very, very far from 50%. Please go to the link and study the entire article regarding Iceland’s testing,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iceland-finds-that-half-its-citizens-with-coronavirus-have-shown-no-symptoms-2020-04-10

“...And it’s already made some important discoveries. Among them: that between 0.3% and 0.8% of Iceland’s population is infected with the coronavirus, while half of those who tested positive were asymptomatic as the time of their tests....”

[NobleFree]

“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said Guðnason.

You're right - journalists misunderstand simple numbers, again. The current numbers from https://www.covid.is/data make the infection rate 4.8%, which using the blogger's arithmetic would make the mortality rate about 0.04%. (I've pointed out the problem with the arithmetical approach in post 59.)

[NobleFree]

Marketwatch got it wrong too; since Iceland’s testing was random, its 4.8% infection rate can be extrapolated to the entire population.

[Magnum44]

Given the limited number of tests and the number of sick, somehow I doubt that statement.

[House Atreides]

Sorry, you’re making crap up again. I see you signed up here immediately following Donald Trump’s election. Have you always posted misinformation or is this just a recent aberration on your part.

I’m going to put you posts down simply to your misunderstanding of what’s happening and not to malevolence on your part.

[Mr Rogers]

The problem is some journalists - or bloggers - have turned “half of the positive tests had no symptoms” into “half of the population [or half of all tested] has it without symptoms”.

I find it comforting to know about twice as many have it as show symptoms. That would cut the rate of hospitalization / death in half because it would double the denominator. I think it is obviously more dangerous than the flu, but I don’t think it is so much MORE dangerous as to justify shutting down the USA for months.

BTW - a friend of mine died from it in March. He had a number of serious health issues but was active and enjoying life. He collapsed one afternoon and was diagnosed shortly after arriving at the hospital. He was intubated within hours and never regained consciousness.

It is serious, but not IMHO serious enough to justified shutting down the entire economy.

[grundle]

The Market Watch article says the infection rate is about 100 times smaller than what the Daily Mail said. So the fatality rate would be about 100 times bigger than what the Daily Mail said. My problem is that I trusted the Daily Mail.

[Arlis]

NOBODY knows the MORTALITY RATE because a significant percentage of a population have to be tested not only to see if positive, but if they have antibodies and have had disease but gotten over it.

Until then, it’s all a SWAG.

I’m guessing 2 to 3x the people who have been tested actually have had the disease and are over it with minimal or no effects.

That alone would cut the current “mortality rate” in 1/3 to 1/2.

[Nifster]

It’s not MY news story. It’s the story that tjis thread deals with

[William Tell]

"There are NOT millions of undetected asymptomatic cases walking around. "

Are we sure about that?

Just today we learned that two relatives have just tested positive for the antibodies. They only recall having some symptoms in December. I suspect that my son-in-law may also have had the virus. He was ill when he returned from Germany in January. He'll get tested for antibodies as soon as possible.

These three cases are not asymptomatic. However, these people had no idea that they might be suffering from COVID-19.

[Fledermaus]

Probably have

[NobleFree]

Please go to the link and study the entire article regarding Iceland’s testing,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iceland-finds-that-half-its-citizens-with-coronavirus-have-shown-no-symptoms-2020-04-10

since Iceland’s testing was random, its 4.8% infection rate can be extrapolated to the entire population.

Sorry, you’re making crap up again.

It says so at YOUR link, dumbass:

"And Kari Stefansson, CEO of deCODE genetics, which is helping to carry out Iceland’s testing efforts, said that Iceland may be one of the best live coronavirus laboratories we have in the world as it continues to randomly test its people."

[trebb]

Time to start letting go of the panic....reality isn’t even close to any of the models and with enough folks aware of the relative ease of avoiding it, it’s time to wake up from the nightmare and get on with life.

[exDemMom]

Have any of them had a cold recently?

In December, there were still fewer than 100 cases, all in China. Mathematically and biologically, it is not plausible that Covid-19 had already infected billions by December. Pathogens just don’t work that way.

The problem with antibody tests is that antibodies very often cross-react. Covid-19 is a killer cold virus that bears many structural similarities to ordinary corona cold viruses. Because of these similarities, antibodies that a person has from a cold could very well react to Covid-19 in an antibody test. So I would take any results of an antibody test with a grain of salt.

What the cross-reactivity means for Covid-19 infection is an interesting question. Pre-existing antibodies against an ordinary corona cold could protect a person from Covid-19, making their disease less severe—or they could make the symptoms far worse. It is an interesting research question.

[HamiltonJay]

“As of yesterday, the UK had tested 316,836 people of its 66.4 million population, with 73,758 confirmed infections. This translates to 0.48 per cent of the population swabbed.

Of those infected, 8,958 have died, a case fatality rate of around 0.12 per cent, notably higher than Iceland’s. “

Uh, no nearly 9,000 out of 74,000 is not .12% its 12%!!

Whoever wrote this column is consistently UNDERSTATING the percentages... Icelands death rate is .4% not .004% as well!

That is still about 3-4 times more deadly than the regular flu, but but around 6 time less deadly than the spanish flu.

I agree the reaction of the world has been too extreme for this threat... however, claiming icelands death rate is .004% is not true! 9 out of 1600 is .4%

and this I believe is pretty accurate, the death rate is around .4 to .5%...

[daniel1212]

As of this morning, the worldwide death rate is 6.149%. The US death rate is 3.888%.

That is only as concerns confirmed cases, which are usually those who have symptoms, versus all those who are estimated to be infected, and it is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like], and which random testing helps substantiate. Enter Iceland:

Iceland has tested one-tenth of its population for coronavirus at random and found HALF of people have the disease without realising... 4/12/2020, 10:33:43 AM · by L.A.Justice · 67 replies Daily Mail ^ | April 11, 2020 | Ryan Fahey Iceland has tested one-tenth of its population for coronavirus at random and found that half of people have the disease without realising. They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak. Of these cases, there were only seven deaths, indicating a fatality rate of just 0.004 per cent, which is significantly lower than other countries, including the UK. The findings were made during Iceland's rigorous testing campaign, conducted with the help of Reykjavik-based biopharmaceutical company deCODE genetics, which has seen 10 per cent of the 364,413 population swabbed. Cf. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/

[daniel1212]

Coronavirus deaths are probably understated due to deaths at home just like infections are understated because of a lack of symptoms.

More likely,

How Honest Is Our Covid Fatality Count? Take Minnesota As a Disturbing Example 4/8/2020, 8:58:22 PM · by SeekAndFind · 30 replies Powerline Blog ^ | 04/08/2020 | John Hinderaker Dr. Scott Jensen is both a physician and a Minnesota state senator. Yesterday he was interviewed by a local television station and dropped a bombshell: he, and presumably all other Minnesota doctors, got a seven-page letter from the Minnesota Department of Health that gave guidance on how to classify COVID-19 deaths. The letter said that if a patient died of, e.g., pneumonia, and was believed to have been exposed to COVID-19, the death certificate should say that COVID-19 was the cause of death even though the patient was never tested, or never tested positive, for that disease.

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone’s life.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that,” she added. - https://thehayride.com/2020/04/confirmed-theyre-inflating-wuhan-virus-death-rates-nationally/

the CDC allows some leeway in assigning the cause of death: “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death [emp. by CDC].” “the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.” (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf)

Dr. Anthony Fauci... admitted that seven out of eight deaths attributed to the virus were really caused by one or more other comorbidities. In other words, the patient was on death’s door whether the virus got to them or not.

Dr. Deborah Birx, who everybody seems to like because she dresses so well, admitted those death totals are inflated as a matter of policy.

The same issue is related to the number of deaths in Italy which is attributed to Covid-19. According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health:

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says. (Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/)

[daniel1212]

just 0.004 per cent

Correction (see debate above ): .

[NobleFree]

Dr. Anthony Fauci... admitted that seven out of eight deaths attributed to the virus were really caused by one or more other comorbidities.

Fauci is mentioned nowhere in your link, and it does not support your claim of "caused."

In other words, the patient was on death’s door whether the virus got to them or not.

So if I've got a terminal cancer and get hit by a bus, it wasn't really the bus that killed me?

[William Tell]

Two in December and one in January had symptoms. The one in January was just back from Germany and has not been tested. The other two tested positive for antibodies. One of them had moved from Canada in the prior two months.