We conclude that the death count will be somewhere between here and there.
Posted on 04/10/2020 6:38:42 PM PDT by Widget Jr
Coronavirus Task Force member Dr. Anthony Fauci discusses coronavirus models in exclusive interview on 'The Story'. #FoxNews
Summary (NOT a transcript!):
Fauci doesn't trust models, they are only good as assumptions built in, as real data comes in that becomes more important.
It was not just the models that lead to the shutdown and social distancing policies.
Look at China, Northern Italy, hospitals overrun, and the draconian measures China took.
Even if he never saw a model, something severe would need to be done to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
He has problems with models too.
As far as he knows, no one has gone without a hospital bed or ventiliator if they needed one.
Reopening the Economy:
Issue of reopening country, not a light switch, outbreaks differ accross the country (lists examples)
First steps, parameters, country as whole + components.
Once NY gets over hump, they can start back up.
Areas that dont have spikes, harder to evaluate, like midwest.
Not unidimensional.
What would go first?
What is essential to the functioning of the community.
Besides first responders, food plants, communications, electricity, ASAP.
Teleworkers might be able to stay at home.
How to get jots that can't telework back up.
How fixed is May 1 restart?
May 1 is a hopeful maybe, but day by day week by week.
Restart is one of the most important decisions the President will make.
Wearing masks after restart - definite maybe due to asymptomatic cases.
Some physical barrier better than none.
Mask might be important tool to prevent respread
See the joggers animation in a store, how a sneeze spreads? Do they make sense to him?
Didn't see them, knows enough to know what's in them. Sneeze goes 20 feet or more.
(More jogging questions, doesn't know answer. )
Tammy Bruce, vaccine, immunity certificate how does not incentive getting virus and punsish people?
Talk about them, until we get enough testing to get a real feel of spread, we dont know what percent are asymptomatic, and never knew.
Anti-body testing, to representative testing, no idea. We don't know.
Herd immunity VS Social distancing?
Cross country comparisons hard. UK decided herd immunity, then went to physical separation.
Past pandemics, did models have gaps? Did those models have 33% swing in one week?
That's why he doesn't trust models, becuase they are wrong. Ebola modeling was way off.
Wrong to make policy off models?
Policy was not made off models, just look at China, and realize this was serious problems.
Policy was not made off models>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes it was. Lets not redefine recent history.
According to the model, they predicted between 1 million and 2.2 million death.
On that predication , our economy was shut down for another 30 days after being shut down for 15 days.
But we only are at about 60 thousand deaths with indicators looking like we might be reaching the peak.
Ask Doctor fauci why we are so far off.Thats WAY off.
I would put it to Dr. Fauci:
Why did the models not factor in the effect of therapy using such medicines as Hydroxy-Chloroquine? That’s one of the very strong factors that kept the numbers down.The drug was being widey used in the millions of doses as therapy and as prophylaxis by health professionals.
And it is the drug which can hasten the opening of the country if it is used as prophylaxis to prevent further infections in those who are not immune.
I have a hard time swallowing Fauci’s modeling rope a dope. There are causal factors at work which Fauci does not want to acknowledge.
Fauci will work to extend the shut down of America. But in fact the proper application of Hydroxy-Chloroquine as preventative along with Zinc vitamin, will allow America to reopen for business.
We conclude that the death count will be somewhere between here and there.
The only thing known to be more dangerous than the CoVid-19 virus is getting in-between Dr. Fauci and a television camera.
THIS MAN NEEDS TO BE CHARGED WITH A CRIME!
Policy was not made off the model, riiiiiiight, here is Dr. Scarf using the model to suggest policy.
In other words they don’t have a clue.
Yep. They have no idea, so the only idea was to suggest to shut down the economy until they figure something out, eventually, but for now just wait while the past due notices pile up.
Thanks for doing the work summarizing and posting.
I kind of figured that nobody but a lunatic could look at Italy and do nothing.
March 29:
Fauci: Don't Worry About Best-Case, Worst-Case Predictions About Coronavirus
March 26:
Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions
March 12:
Dr. Anthony Fauci cautions against 75-150 million coronavirus case estimate
"“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that's based on a model," Fauci replied.
"Fauci added that the press tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models. “Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a million [cases]. We didn’t have a million," he added."
-----
Seems to me he's been consistent on explaining the problems models have every time he talks about them, and that he points to the fact of where cases were rising sharply regardless of models. So it is unlikely that someone who understands the problems with models, has been consistent about explaining the problems with models to everyone, including the President, would then tell the President to go for a shut down based on those same models.
Dr. Fauci saw his shadow this morning. We’re going to have 4 more weeks of stay at home and social distancing.
Seems to me he’s been consistent on explaining the problems models have every time he talks about them,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So what? He is obscuring what is in fact happening.
This ASSHAT stood at the podium 5 days ago and told the entire country we would have 100,000 - 200,000 deaths WITH the mitigation in place this guy is a deep state bureaucrat he doesn’t know what the hell he is talking about PERIOD!!!
What exactly is he obscuring, and how?
What exactly is he obscuring, and how?>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Fauci is obscuring the successful use of drugs off label in the millions of doses, which have lowered the model expected number of deaths.
” You can never trust models, they’re only as good as the data you put in,” said Fauci.
Why is he not putting in data about the success of drug therapy?
Its staring him right in the face. He’s working 8 times harder to obscure that data than simply collecting it.
Its time for Fauci to go to the back of the bus.
this guy is a deep state bureaucrat he doesn’t know what the hell he is talking about PERIOD!!!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
In January Dr. Fauci said on national TV that America had nothing to fear about COVID-19.
I think Fauci is dumber than dirt.He also has no criticism for WHO.
Got that right. Nailed it.
I don’t know why but I resent her wearing all these scarves. This is no time to be making a fashion statement. Maybe it’s because I resent her and Fauci being able to take over our country while she chooses which fashionable scarf would look good on TV today.
Another “hockey stick” curve?
Fauci and his model was only off by 90%. No biggie.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.