Posted on 03/15/2020 5:15:39 AM PDT by EyesOfTX
Yes, friends, Donald Trump did just fine in Texas on Super Tuesday, despite what Lt. Col. Allen West said. – I know this is going back in time a bit now, but readers continue to send me notes of concern about an “analysis” posted by Lt. Col. Allen West at his website after the Super Tuesday primary in Texas. In that piece, with the clickbait headline of “Super Tuesday Results From Texas: It Ain’t Pretty,” Mr. West contends that the President didn’t do well in the Lone Star State, based on vote count comparisons with the field of Democrats, which then still consisted of at least 8 contenders.
Here’s an excerpt from the piece:
Ever since I was a little boy, I have always enjoyed math. It was always a treat solving equations and figuring out solutions based upon formulas. Regardless of the common core math fallacy, there are objective truths, and they can be found in the study of mathematics. I suppose that was why being a US Army Field Artillery officer was the perfect fit for me, figuring out firing solutions to put “steel on target.” Back in the day, we had to do our computations, under time constraints, with tabular firing tables and slide rules . . . those were the days.
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Numbers tell a story when you know what to analyze, and they provide insight and the ability to develop plans and strategies. Therefore, our campaign staff for Texas GOP Chairman decided to take a look at some numbers from the Super Tuesday primary election here in the Lone Star State. We believed the results would tell us a story, but the story we uncovered is not a good one.
I think it is time those living in a delusional fantasy land stop kidding themselves, and realize that, well, yes, “Houston, we have a problem.” Now, I am not an alarmist, certainly not one to panic, but I am a realist. And, it is time we get real about what is happening, politically, in Texas.
It is, sad to say, a repeat of what the progressive socialist left has been doing in other once strong, conservative states.
The data found below comes from the Texas Secretary of State website. You can also see the results by county by party. This is all open-source data that anyone can find, research, analyze, and assess. What we did was to look at the major population centers in Texas, by county, and several surrounding counties, to provide a picture of what happened in this primary election cycle.
By comparison, we looked at three rural (lower population) counties. This is the data we found posted as of Thursday, March 5th. Here is what we found, with “us” meaning Republicans:
STATEWIDE (Texas) – updated D – votes cast – 2,076,046 R – votes cast – 2,008,385 THEY OUT VOTED us by roughly 68K
Harris (Houston) – registered voters 2,385,906 D – 321,903 votes cast 13.49% turnout R – 192,985 votes cast 8.09% turnout THEY OUT VOTED us by roughly 129k people The piece goes on and on, detailing the turnout in several other big counties in Texas, but you get the picture: Because the 8 Democrats pulled more total votes than a President running essentially unopposed for re-election, that means Trump is in trouble in the Red State of Texas.
No, not really.
Look, this is really kind of simple. Texans have a long history of cross-over voting in the GOP and Democrat primaries, especially in years in which an incumbent president is running for re-election and the other party has a contested primary going on. We have a couple of 21st century examples to look at in this regard.
First, there was 2012, when Barack Hussien Obama His Own Self was running unopposed for re-election. Here was the official vote totals in that primary election:
Democrats: 590,164
Republicans: 1,449,447
So, in a state in which the Republicans that year held a statewide advantage of about 10-15% of the vote, the contested GOP primary between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and an assortment of others by roughly 160%, as hundreds of thousands of Democrats crossed over to vote in the GOP presidential primary, and thousands of others just stayed at home.
Then, there was 2004, when incumbent Texan George W. Bush was running for his re-election against a Democrat field consisting of John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean and assorted other miscreants and grifters. Here are the official vote totals in that primary:
Democrats: 839,231
Republicans: 687,615
Here we see Democrats out-drawing the Republicans by about 33% in a state in which the GOP held an even larger overall advantage than in 2012. Why? Because thousands of people who would normally vote Republican either crossed over to participate in the contested Democrat primary or stayed at home due to lack of interest. That 33% margin for the contested Democrat race that year compares to an edge of just 1.7% in 2020.
Now, let’s compare total turnout increase between 2020 and 2004, which is the most relevant case given that we have a GOP incumbent president in both years. Where the Democrat vote total was up by an impressive 150%, Trump’s total votes were right at 200% higher than the total Bush received in 2004. That is an amazing shift in just 16 years.
Col. West is right when he says that “we must be concerned about the progressive socialist expansion from these major population centers.” That’s nothing new in Texas, but its advance has been reducing the GOP advantage in the state over time. But let’s be honest: Overall, his post is a fright piece containing little if any real analysis designed mainly to attract clicks from readers.
Judging from our own readers here at the Campaign Update, West’s piece did have its desired effect of raising a great deal of concern from conservative Texas voters, and hey, that’s not a bad thing. But when you look at this year’s results and examine them through the prism of history and the dynamics of this year’s campaign, the ability of President Trump to accumulate more than 2 million votes in a basically uncontested primary in Texas this year is nothing short of amazing.
Texas is a Red state, and it is going to remain a Red state for the foreseeable future.
That is all.
Trump can destroy Democrat, Joe Biden politically...if only GOP voters would turn out on Primary election day in Florida, Ohio & Illinois and cast their votes for POTUS, Donald J. Trump...Period!!!
Florida is doing well in Mail-In & Early Voting ballots!!!
Col West sucks at statistical analysis.
Bookmark - LTC West
He is an OK guy. Just don’t hire him to do your statistical analysis that’s all. LOL!
Yeah everybody knew Trump would win and that many turned out is huge. Col. West is terrible at analytics.
I hope his time on target math was better than his data analysis in the Texas primary.
Col. West should stick to shooting people.
Is Col. West a chicken little? I hope not..
Shhhhh! We are trying to get the dems to waist money in a Texas they cannot win.
How many D votes were from Op Chaos?
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