The Coming Coronavirus Storm

American Conservative ^ | March 13, 2020 | Rod Dreher

[C19fan]

You better sit down for this one. The New York Times got its hands on a presentation given at a CDC conference in February that gathered the agency’s senior officials, and top epidemiological experts, together at a meeting to game out how bad the virus outbreak could be in the US. Here’s what they discussed. Excerpts:

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Well, well. This will be an interesting note in history.

[TigerClaws]

Just the flu. Nothing to it. All a liberal hoax.

Been hearing that for weeks on here.

Denial is more than just a river in Egypt.

[outpostinmass2]

I agree.

[dp0622]

I think of the 150 million Americans that survived the 150 million deaths at the hands of guns, 500 million Americans will get it.

Now if bloomberg had put his money towards his virus, there would be 2,000,000 dollars for each person to help them get better.

It was originally one million per person but like I said, that was before half the population was wiped out by gun violence.

[SMARTY]

“...agency’s senior officials, and top epidemiological experts, together...”

Would any of these guys be the same dumb f&%$s who sat around picking their noses while equally dumb a^% politicos bullied Conservatives with their PC BS and forcing tolerance for millions of 3rd world and undocumented people entering our country?

[ml/nj]

How is one of these CDC conferences different from a Global Warming conference?

I see lots of similarities including that the NYT hypes both.

ML/NJ

[JPJones]

It sounds a bit overhyped.

[Ingtar]

925,000 beds. What are the peak numbers for any individual day over the entire course of the virus?

[dp0622]

Boy you guys hold grudges :)

Let’s be honest, some here post so much about this virus that i think they will be disappointed if it’s a dud :)

It’s a psychological syndrome. It was seen a lot before y2k

If nothing incredibly happens (good or bad) they only have their humdrum lives to go back to.

My life is humdrum but I don’t mind :)

[RonnG]

The good news is that when Global Warming hits in 7 years and wipes out the rest of us, there will be millions already dead from flu who will not suffer

[HighSierra5]

Don’t tell me this wasn’t a biological warfare operation by the Chicoms.

[nhwingut]

If the world doesn’t end you types need self quarantine from FR.

[lastchance]

“... superb response of Singapore and Hong Kong,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard. Those countries implemented school closures, eliminated mass gatherings, required work from home, and rigorously decontaminated their public transportation and infrastructure. They also conducted widespread testing.”

What is the homeless population of those cities? The high homeless population in US cities is one factor which will make containment difficult if not impossible.

[allendale]

Neither the CDC nor the WHO is listing the race of those who are becoming seriously ill or dying from infection with COVID-19 virus. Clearly if you are frail elderly with diabetes or underlying pulmonary disease, there is a good chance you will die if you become infected. Yet just who are the young people that have become seriously ill or the few that have died. Populations genetics is a critical consideration when studying any pandemic. Yet if you study and report such data, regardless of your profession or expertise, you will be accused of profiling and of course racism. Such political correctness is willful self delusion, dangerous and leads to grief. Resources are not allocated properly or squandered.

Also perhaps someone will study just why the Indian subcontinent and subSahara Africa has been to date largely spared from this pandemic. Genetics and race matter.

[Fresh Wind]

We need to tear down the Trump Wall so that we can get enough healthy immigrants into the country quickly to replace the hundreds of millions of Americans who will soon die.

[Travis McGee]

Covid-19 is not "over" in China. It's being held at bay by extreme, govt-ordered social distancing and quarantine, at the cost of shutting down their economy.

Since there is no "herd immunity" until 70+% of a population has been infected and recovered, the Chinese (or Italians, or Americans etc.) will be just as susceptible to new waves of Covid-19 in coming months or years. (Spanish Flu also came in waves, the 2nd was more deadly than the first.)

Every govt. faces this balancing act, while hoping that the first wave of CV will pass and their economies can be revived, without a return of CV. We are in uncharted waters as to the length and depth of the coming ordeal.

Hopes that CV will naturally fade away in the summer may be mistaken. An outbreak by community spread is happening in Manila, which is now under lock-down.

[Vermont Lt]

Not virus related, but you write a lot about Y2K on a forum where a lot of us old nerds worked for the better part of a year to make sure nothing happened.

You keep saying it was a nothingburger. You could not be more wrong.

[null and void]

Slow the spread!

Wash your hands
Avoid crowds
Don't touch your face
If you are sick stay home

[Travis McGee]

WILL CHINA WIN THE PANDEMIC WORLD WAR?

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/02/will-china-win-the-pandemic-world-war/