Posted on 03/01/2020 2:08:18 PM PST by CheshireTheCat
Below I summarize the primary races taking place this Tuesday by state; delegates up for grabs; whether the primary is open, mixed, or closed; latest RCP averages for the top three candidates; major newspaper endorsements; and major (cough cough) Republicans running against Trump in the Republican primary:
Alabama; 52; open; no polls; Time-Daily (Bloomberg); Weld
Arkansas; 31; open; no polls; no endorsements; Weld
California; 416; mixed; Sanders-35, Warren-17, Biden-11; San Diego Union Tribune-Buttigeg, Mercury News (San Jose) and San Francisco Chronicle-Klobuchar, San Francisco Bay Guardian and The Times Standard (Eureka)- Sanders; Weld
Colorado; 67; open; Sanders-31, Warren-18, Butt and Bloomberg- 13 (tie); Weld
Maine; 24; closed; no polls; Bangor Daily News-Klobuchar; no Republican primary
Massachusetts; 91; mixed; Sanders-25, Warren-21, Butt-13; The Boston Globe- Warren; Weld, La Fuente
Minnesota; 75; open; no polls; Star Tribune-Klobuchar; no Republican primary
North Carolina; 110; mixed; Biden-26, Sanders- 23, Bloomberg-16; The Charlotte Post – Bloomberg; Weld
Oklahoma; 37; closed; Biden- 21, Bloomberg- 20, Sanders 13; no endorsements; La Fuente
Tennessee; 64; open; no polls; no endorsements; Weld
Texas; 64; open; Sanders- 30, Biden- 20 Bloomberg- 18; El Paso Times – Butt, Houston Chronicle– Klobuchar, Austin Chronicle- Warren; Weld, La Fuente
Utah; 29; closed; Sanders- 28, Bloomberg- 15, Warren- 15; no endorsements; Weld, La Fuente
Vermont; 16; open; no polls, no endorsements; Weld, La Fuente
Virginia; 99; open; Sanders- 25, Bloomberg- 20, Biden- 19; no endorsements; no Republican primary
My understanding is that in an open primary, a person, no matter his or her party registration status, can vote in either party’s primary. In a mixed primary, a person has to register with a party that day or is considered now registered with that party by virtue of voting in a particular party’s primary. In a closed primary, a person can only vote in the primary for the party they registered with some time before the primary. Freepers in these particular states can weigh in to explain better. In some cases there have not been enough polls in a particular state for a solid average to be calculated. I used Wikipedia for the newspaper endorsements; they only listed endorsements made at least a few days ago, if not a month ago. I imagine there have been a lot new endorsements today that have not been updated.
Looks like Biden and Sanders will gain the most. Sanders a lot due to California.
Biden might get shut out in CA because I think they need 15% to be included in the proportional distribution.
Biden will win various southern primaries.
What’s a mixed primary? You can fill out the Democratic ballot with your right hand and the Republican ballot with your left hand, as long as the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing?
Is there a site with polling (if any) of what the total delegate win counts could be for the candidates?
I believe all states in the Dem primaries work on the system that if a candidate gets 15% overall they get some share of statewide delegates and they can get a district delegate if they get 15% in a congressional district, but I’m really not sure. I couldn’t find a good site that breaks it down.
None. Democrats do proportional. Republicans do combo.
The way they are orgazmic about Biden all over the news. He’ll do better then polls unfortunately.
I believe that all states must follow the DNC rules for proportional award of delegates with a 15% threshold.
colorado is mixed: only unaffiliated voters have the option to pick which primary to vote in, and they do not get re-registered by doing that: they remain unaffiliated ...
Thank you for the clarification. I appreciate it.
“The way they are orgazmic about Biden all over the news. He’ll do better then polls unfortunately.”
I think so.
I don’t see anything unfortunate about it, or fortunate either.
Who cares what they do. I like it to be close and filled with animosity so I’d be hoping Joe keeps pace with the Commie.
Good resource for the primaries:
https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
Verginius Rufus, your question about mixed, closed and open primaries is covered well at this link.
Thank you.
“Which ones, if any, are winner take all?”
none. the DNC set the basic rules for all the Dem presidential primaries ... delegates awarded proportionally among those achieving at least 15%, whereas anyone under 15% gets none ...
The pubs, on the other hand, are winner-take-all, which is why the 2016 Pub nomination avoided the chaos now facing the Dems ... AND we have then GOP chair Reince Preibus to thank for doing that ...
Texas the one state to watch on Super Tuesday.
Crazy Bernie has an opportunity to shut out Doomberg, Sleepy Joe of delegates if he forces them under 15%
He’s employing the same GOTV tactics in NV to maximize the young beaner/illegal vote.
“Biden will win various southern primaries.”
RCP poll averages showing biden doing well only in florida, and that’s only because comrade bernie mouthed off about how wonderful cuban and south american communist dictators are ... RCP poll average does indeed indicate Biden could be shut out in CA ... unless something changes though, this race is coming down to a race between comrade bernie and slow joe ...
All I want during the Dem convention is a bunch of pissed off Bernie voters. If Bernie voters are content, that is worrisome.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.