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Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 2/4/2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/04/2020 6:55:11 AM PST by edwinland

[snip]

We estimate that Sanders’s chances of a majority would have shot up to from 31 percent to 58 percent with an Iowa win, Warren’s from 5 percent to 32 percent, and Buttigieg’s from 4 percent to 22 percent.

[snip]

To be even more blunt: The Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process. The failure to report results will almost certainly help Biden, assuming that indications that he performed poorly in Iowa are correct, as they won’t get nearly as much media coverage. And they’ll hurt whichever candidate wins the state — most likely Sanders or Buttigieg. (Although if Sanders winds up finishing in second place or lower, he also might not mind a reduction in the importance of Iowa, especially with one of his best states, New Hampshire, coming up next.)

Furthermore, Iowa is typically a state that winnows the field. But with every candidate either having performed well there, potentially having an excuse for a disappointing finish there, or somewhere in between, it might not do that. Delaying the winnowing process would tangibly increase the chance of a contested convention.

It’s not a good situation for the Democratic Party. And it’s already too late for the damage to be entirely undone, even if Iowa eventually gets its act together.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: caucus; iowa; screwup
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To: cnsmom

“It’s not a bug, it’s a feature.”

Another Peter Strzok insurance policy?


41 posted on 02/04/2020 7:55:33 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Isn’t Mook (His app company - and oh how Millennial an app company!)a Hellary stooge?


42 posted on 02/04/2020 7:56:15 AM PST by Reily
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To: Leaning Right
Some blame the Iowa mess on Vladimir Putin....that crafty Russian hacked into the voting app and messed everything up.
And when someone named Ivan or Boris ends up with the majority of Iowa delegates, they will have been proven right.

You dont have an ounce of diversity in you. Why can't Ukranians or Chinese win delegates. Huh?

43 posted on 02/04/2020 7:57:20 AM PST by Liz (Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Hillary’s campaign chair Robby Mook is the CEO of the company that developed the Iowa Caucus App.

https://www.opednews.com/articles/Robby-Mook-2016-Clinton-C-by-Stephen-Fox-E-voting-Machines-3rd-Party-Hacks_Election-Integrity_Faulty-Voting-Machines_Iowa-Caucus-200129-740.html


44 posted on 02/04/2020 7:58:28 AM PST by COUNTrecount ("I've always won, and I'm going to continue to win. And that's the way it is." -- Donald Trump)
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To: edwinland
The Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process.

Call me skeptical of that.

45 posted on 02/04/2020 8:02:22 AM PST by libertylover (Democrats hated Lincoln too.)
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To: 2banana
Bernie won and the dems are trying to cover it up.

Sounds right... and they need to come up with talking points that play it likes it's NOT a rejection of the democrat establishment. (Which it is)

46 posted on 02/04/2020 8:02:26 AM PST by GOPJ ( http://www.tinyurl.com/cvirusmap https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/usmap.htm)
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To: BTerclinger; Phinneous
"Venahafoch hu" in real-time.

Purim was actually the parody provided ahead of the problem.

History isn't just prophecy, it *is* the parable.

Purim is forever, what Bilaam saw.

Explains why Joseph was way ahead on the whole process of growing [pop]corn, the long-term storage and distribution, how to get the best yield and all that.

Popping results are sensitive to the rate at which the kernels are heated. If heated too quickly, the steam in the outer layers of the kernel can reach high pressures and rupture the hull before the starch in the center of the kernel can fully gelatinize, leading to partially popped kernels with hard centers. Heating too slowly leads to entirely unpopped kernels: the tip of the kernel, where it attached to the cob, is not entirely moisture-proof, and when heated slowly, the steam can leak out of the tip fast enough to keep the pressure from rising sufficiently to break the hull and cause the pop.

Popcorn

"and it was turned to the contrary..."

Joseph was the visionary Master of Dreams, hated for "living in a movie." Life is a stage. Only Joseph owns the entire industry -- the production companies, theatres, the snack concessions, the popcorn machines, the popcorn containers, the whole works.

$10 for a box of Raisinets? Take it up with the Man..

47 posted on 02/04/2020 8:02:27 AM PST by Ezekiel (The pun is mightier than the s-word. Goy to the World!)
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To: edwinland

The entire “caucus” concept needs to go in the trash bin.

It needs to be a primary just like every where else.

Let the people vote.


48 posted on 02/04/2020 8:02:42 AM PST by skinndogNN
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To: edwinland

Maybe we should postpone the election until we can teach some coal miners how to code.


49 posted on 02/04/2020 8:03:14 AM PST by McGruff
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To: thoughtomator

> When are they going to figure out that this is all being rigged for Hillary? <

The app that is counting the Iowa votes was developed by a company with strong Clinton connections. Quite the coincidence, eh?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/app-used-in-iowa-democratic-caucus-fiasco-linked-to-former-clinton-campaign


50 posted on 02/04/2020 8:04:32 AM PST by Leaning Right (I have already previewed or do not wish to preview this composition.)
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To: Reily

Yes Robby Mook was one of Hillary’s top campaign managers.


51 posted on 02/04/2020 8:15:08 AM PST by Dilbert San Diego
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To: edwinland

“You had ONE JOB!”


52 posted on 02/04/2020 8:16:25 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: COUNTrecount
Thanks COUNTrecount.

53 posted on 02/04/2020 8:21:07 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Confusion among caucus organizers over how to use the app also seemed to contribute to the problem.

The firm behind the app reportedly is Shadow, an affiliate of ACRONYM, a Democratic nonprofit founded in 2017 “to educate, inspire, register, and mobilize voters,” according to its website. Shadow started out as Groundbase, a tech developer co-founded by Gerard Niemira and Krista Davis, who worked for the tech team on Clinton’s campaign for the 2016 Democratic nomination.


54 posted on 02/04/2020 9:08:47 AM PST by sanjuanbob (Dems=Demons)
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To: cnsmom

They tried to use a two-headed coin toss to decide the winner. They were really confused when every toss came up with Trumps head.


55 posted on 02/04/2020 9:37:23 AM PST by hdstmf
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To: edwinland

Smells like the same Coop And The Gang at work here.
No tolerance (from the deversity folks) ..no choice (from the pro-choice folks..no democracy (from the one’s who claim to be democratic)

.


56 posted on 02/04/2020 9:46:04 AM PST by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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To: Ezekiel

I think the NSA could use your mind to crack...or hatch new intelligence schemes. Get thee to thine local kabbalist!


57 posted on 02/04/2020 10:08:34 AM PST by Phinneous (By the way, there are Seven Laws for you too! Noahide.org)
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To: Phinneous
Kabbalah you say? 137

According to tradition, the pillar - 137 - [מצבה] of Rachel's grave was set up on Mole Day [יום המול yom ha-mol, 137].

Such as in 1969.

That pillar is a literal tombstone, for "what was to be shown" [מש"ל], Q.E.D.

Genesis 1:5 And God called the light Day, and the darkness he called Night. And the evening and the morning were the first day.

It's like "day and night" [יום ולילה] = 137

Idiom for all of the time, continually, nonstop.

It's where the anointing oil is hiding in plain sight -- the place where it's always midnight.

Accept no substitutes. ;)

Mole Day is an unofficial holiday celebrated among chemists, chemistry students and chemistry enthusiasts on October 23, between 6:02 a.m. and 6:02 p.m.,[1][2] making the date 6:02 10/23 in the American style of writing dates.

The time and date are derived from the Avogadro number, which is approximately 6.02×1023, defining the number of particles (atoms or molecules) in one mole (mol) of substance, one of the seven base SI units.

Spell out the pillar, which is the Q.E.D/"mashal" symbol: mem tzaddi bet hei = 80 + 104 + 412 + 6 = 602
And spell out Beth-El: beit yud tav - alef lamed = 412 + 20 + 406 + 111 + 74 = 1023

It's all in there, spelled out:

Gen 35

14. And Jacob set up a pillar in the place where he talked with him, a pillar of stone; and he poured a drink offering on it, and he poured oil on it:
15. And Jacob called the name of the place where God spoke with him, Beth-El:
16. And they journeyed from Beth-El; and there was but a little way to come to Ephrath; and Rachel labored with child, and she had difficult labor:
17. And it came to pass, when she was in difficult labor, that the midwife said to her, Fear not; you shall have this son also:
18. And it came to pass, as her soul was departing, for she died, that she called his name Benoni; but his father called him Benjamin:
19. And Rachel died, and was buried in the way to Ephrath, which is Beth-Lehem:
20. And Jacob set a pillar upon her grave; that is the pillar of Rachel's grave to this day:
21. And Israel journeyed, and spread his tent beyond the tower of Edar:

Did I veer off-topic? No such thing, ha!

What's the difference between a groundhog and a mole? It's like what Phil explained to Phil, "It's not personal; it's just a game."

Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process

Elemental, for chemistry enthusiasts. A [chemical] element *is* a yesod.

58 posted on 02/04/2020 11:23:37 AM PST by Ezekiel (The pun is mightier than the s-word. Goy to the World!)
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To: Leaning Right

Source? I have a bottle of Rye on the caucuses being Russian interference. And I love my rye!


59 posted on 02/04/2020 4:39:25 PM PST by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian.)
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To: Leaning Right

Found it!

And it looks like there is a band in Russia called Iowa.

Kind of funny.

Now to collect my new bottle of rye!


60 posted on 02/04/2020 4:53:31 PM PST by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian.)
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