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Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 2/4/2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/04/2020 6:55:11 AM PST by edwinland

[snip]

We estimate that Sanders’s chances of a majority would have shot up to from 31 percent to 58 percent with an Iowa win, Warren’s from 5 percent to 32 percent, and Buttigieg’s from 4 percent to 22 percent.

[snip]

To be even more blunt: The Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process. The failure to report results will almost certainly help Biden, assuming that indications that he performed poorly in Iowa are correct, as they won’t get nearly as much media coverage. And they’ll hurt whichever candidate wins the state — most likely Sanders or Buttigieg. (Although if Sanders winds up finishing in second place or lower, he also might not mind a reduction in the importance of Iowa, especially with one of his best states, New Hampshire, coming up next.)

Furthermore, Iowa is typically a state that winnows the field. But with every candidate either having performed well there, potentially having an excuse for a disappointing finish there, or somewhere in between, it might not do that. Delaying the winnowing process would tangibly increase the chance of a contested convention.

It’s not a good situation for the Democratic Party. And it’s already too late for the damage to be entirely undone, even if Iowa eventually gets its act together.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: caucus; iowa; screwup
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To: digger48

“Several Hillary staffers were involved with creating the tallying system”

Ding, ding, ding we have a winner! You called it correctly.


21 posted on 02/04/2020 7:17:25 AM PST by LottieDah
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To: JusPasenThru

I say from now on they be known as “the Iowa Clusters”.


22 posted on 02/04/2020 7:24:35 AM PST by bigbob (Trust Trump. Trust the Plan.)
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To: PGalt

Notice how he says contested convention instead of brokered convention.


23 posted on 02/04/2020 7:24:39 AM PST by Lisbon1940 (No full-term Governors (at the time of election))
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To: edwinland

You mean DEMOCRATS might have screwed up the whole nomination process...fixed it for ya!


24 posted on 02/04/2020 7:29:57 AM PST by oil_dude
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To: PGalt

Nate failed again—he never saw this SNAFU coming!


25 posted on 02/04/2020 7:32:04 AM PST by cgbg (The Democratic Party is morphing into the Donner Party)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
How hard it is, to count votes and report them to headquarters?

Even moderately trained monkeys could do it.

The Democrats are devolution in action!
26 posted on 02/04/2020 7:33:52 AM PST by cgbg (The Democratic Party is morphing into the Donner Party)
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To: ConservativeMind
Mike Bloomberg to the rescue!

From now on if any Trump voters see mini Mike, they need to start shouting

Mini Mike! Stand up Mini Mike!!

27 posted on 02/04/2020 7:36:31 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Most so called Cures for most viruses are imaginary. It has been ride it out, to survive or die.)
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To: PGalt

More likely this worked as intended. It is the set up for 2020.


28 posted on 02/04/2020 7:37:58 AM PST by cnsmom
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To: cgbg
The Democrats are devolution in action!

Are they not men?

29 posted on 02/04/2020 7:38:57 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: edwinland

The Democrats know they will be crushed in November.Their plan is to sow seeds of chaos to de-legitimize the results. If you remember the Gore vs. Bush mess in 2000 then that will pale in comparison to what is coming.


30 posted on 02/04/2020 7:39:08 AM PST by Trumpnado2016 (Welcome to Trump World.)
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To: dfwgator

We’re pinheads all . . .


31 posted on 02/04/2020 7:40:57 AM PST by hadrian
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To: Lisbon1940

>> Notice how he says contested convention instead of brokered convention.

Here is more from Nate on the subject:

I should pause here to note that the definitions of “contested convention” and “brokered convention” — and whether those terms mean slightly different things or are entirely synonymous! — are open to debate.

“Brokered convention” is sometimes regarded as an outmoded term because it implies the use of brokers — which isn’t a terribly good description of the convention process as it exists today. Rather, a contested convention could be a relatively open process with individual delegates — not party bosses wheeling and dealing behind closed doors — having most of the agency to determine the outcome.1 With that said, unless one is trying to be very precise, I don’t have any problem with using “brokered convention” as a near-synonym for “contested convention.”


32 posted on 02/04/2020 7:42:29 AM PST by Lisbon1940 (No full-term Governors (at the time of election))
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To: Trumpnado2016

I agree with that.

I think it’s now to a point where, if the Dems actually staged a strong fight (impossible) and lost by a percentage point, it would not serve their interests well.

BUT, if Trump (everybody hates Orange Man) wins in a landslide then the Dems are positioned to say he stole the election, he cheated, he’s illegitimate. That serves their interests very well.

I’m not sure the Democrats want to really try this year. They want to appear to try. But not really try.


33 posted on 02/04/2020 7:43:26 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
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To: cgbg

Oh, the votes were counted with no problem[s]. The results of the votes cast and counted showed: 1. The candidate that the powers to be wanted to win big, or just win - lost big. 2. The candidate that the powers to be wanted to lose big- won big. They now have to gimmic the numbers to get the desired results. Translation: Once again Bernie supporters get screwed. Each Bernie delegate and supporter that attends the Democrat National Convention better bring a gallon jar of vasoline with them. They are going to need every dollop of it.


34 posted on 02/04/2020 7:45:30 AM PST by sport
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To: Dilbert San Diego

35 posted on 02/04/2020 7:45:41 AM PST by Covenantor (We are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannot govern. " Chesterton)
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To: edwinland

Maybe the Democraps should let it run its course and Bernie becomes their nominee. All of their nominees are going to lose to President Trump. Why not make Bernie be the sacrificial lamb, and that will be the end of the socialist.


36 posted on 02/04/2020 7:47:16 AM PST by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.)
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To: All
It’s not a good situation for the Democratic Party. It’s already too late for the damage to be entirely undone
.......even if Iowa eventually gets its act together.

Lest anyone think the Democraps operate in a total vaccum....they were ready for Iowa.
Harvard was helping along w/ "experts" from Hillary and Romney campaigns. Read on.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE IOWA CAUCUS DEBACLE UP CLOSE:
Iowa’s Republican and Democratic Parties and their app and web development vendors partnered last fall with (cough) Harvard’s
"Defending Digital Democracy Project" to develop strategies and systems to protect results and deal with misinformation.

The group included party "campaign experts" Robby Mook and Matt Rhodes,
and experts in (A) cybersecurity, (B) national security, (C) technology and (D) election administration.

Fortuitously, the group simulated different ways "things could go wrong" on caucus night. (cue maniacal laugh machine here).

Mook is 2016 campaign manager for Hillary Clinton, and Rhodes is Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign manager.

Out of sheer public-spiritededness, they helped develop a video to alert campaigns to warning signs of hacking and misinformation.

37 posted on 02/04/2020 7:47:40 AM PST by Liz (Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
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To: All

Iowa Dem Party now says delay in caucus results due to “quality checks.”

Coincidentally Pelosi used the same reason for waiting a month to deliver House impeachment articles to the Senate.

(Sniffle) Dems united for “quality”........kinda gives confidence to the electorate (sob).


38 posted on 02/04/2020 7:48:59 AM PST by Liz (Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
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To: edwinland
Just as planned....
39 posted on 02/04/2020 7:50:24 AM PST by nesnah (Liberals - the petulant children of politics)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
The system worked exactly as it was designed.

40 posted on 02/04/2020 7:51:36 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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