Posted on 12/26/2019 7:24:21 AM PST by Red Badger
His resiliency in the primary has caught the attention of the party establishment.
Suddenly, Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign is being taken seriously.
For months the Vermont senator was written off by Democratic Party insiders as a candidate with a committed but ultimately narrow base who was too far left to win the primary. Elizabeth Warren had skyrocketed in the polls and seemed to be leaving him behind in the race to be progressive voters’ standard-bearer in 2020.
Story Continued Below
But in the past few weeks, something has changed. In private conversations and on social media, Democratic officials, political operatives and pundits are reconsidering Sanders’ chances.
Story Continued Below
“It may have been inevitable that eventually you would have two candidates representing each side of the ideological divide in the party. A lot of smart people I’ve talked to lately think there’s a very good chance those two end up being Biden and Sanders,” said David Brock, a longtime Hillary Clinton ally who founded a pro-Clinton super PAC in the 2016 campaign. “They’ve both proven to be very resilient.”
Democratic insiders said that they are rethinking Sanders’ bid for a few reasons: First, Warren has recently fallen in national and early-state surveys. Another factor, they said, is that he has withstood the ups and downs of the primary, including his own heart attack. At the same time, other candidates with once-high expectations, such as Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke, have dropped out or languished in single digits in the polls.
“I believe people should take him very seriously. He has a very good shot of winning Iowa, a very good shot of winning New Hampshire, and other than Joe Biden, the best shot of winning Nevada,” said Dan Pfeiffer, who served as a adviser to former President Barack Obama. “He could build a real head of steam heading into South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”
The durability of Sanders’ candidacy has come as a surprise even in some states where he performed strongly in 2020, and where he is attempting to improve his standing ahead of the 2020 election.
California state Sen. Scott Wiener, who defeated a Sanders-backed Democrat for his seat in the liberal-heavy San Francisco area in 2016, said that Sanders has been “more resilient than I anticipated.”
“But in retrospect,” he added, “he has a very, very loyal following, and people have really stuck with him.”
Sanders is in second place in national polls, nearly 9 percentage points behind Joe Biden, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average. He is second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. The latest CNN poll found that he has the highest net favorability rating of any Democratic presidential candidate.
Story Continued Below
While Sanders’ supporters complain relentlessly that he has received less attention from the media than other candidates, he has also avoided sustained criticism that some of his rivals have suffered. That could be helping him, especially compared with Warren, who has recently come under fire from the left and center for her health care plan.
“If you really think about it, Bernie hasn’t been hit a lot with anything. It’s not like he’s getting hit by other campaigns,” said Michael Ceraso, a former New Hampshire director for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign who worked for Sanders in 2016.
“You sort of take for granted that he, like Biden, are institutional figures for very different reasons,” Ceraso said. “Early in the campaign, Bernie’s people said, ‘Look, this guy in these early states has a nice hold, and there’s a percentage of supporters, a quarter of the electorate will potentially go for him.” He added, “It waned a little bit because people were looking at other options … and now they’re saying, ‘Wait a minute, this guy has been the most consistent of anyone.”
At the beginning of the year — another high point for Sanders’ campaign, before Warren surged — some establishment Democrats talked about how to stop his momentum. Brock, who has a close relationship with many Democratic donors, said he has not heard anything like that being revived in recent weeks: “That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. This is more of an analysis in the political world than in the donor world.”
Many moderate Democrats still dismiss Sanders’ candidacy. They believe his so-called ceiling remains intact, and that Warren will depress any room for growth he might otherwise have.
“He can’t win the nomination,” said Matt Bennet, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way, adding that Sanders’ uptick is simply him “bouncing around between his ceiling and his floor a little bit more than people had thought he would.”
On the other hand, he acknowledged his staying power. “Not until the very end will people say to Bernie Sanders, ‘When are you dropping out?’”
A series of TV segments around last week’s Democratic debate illustrate the shift in how Sanders is being perceived. “We never talk about Bernie Sanders. He is actually doing pretty well in this polling,” former senior Obama adviser David Axelrod said on CNN after the event. “He’s actually picked up. And the fact is Bernie Sanders is as consistent as consistent can be.”
The same day on MSNBC, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said, “Democratic voters like him, and if he starts winning, there could be a bandwagon effect.” GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who conducted a California focus group that found most participants thought Sanders had won the debate, said on CNBC, “I think you’re going to see continued movement. Sanders has been gaining in California over the past two months.”
Larry Cohen, chairman of the pro-Sanders group Our Revolution, said Warren’s candidacy is not a problem for Sanders if both of them can — together — amass a plurality of delegates heading into the convention.
“The math is that if you think of the voters for Warren and the voters for Sanders as two circles, yes, there is overlap, [but] most of the circles are separate,” Cohen said. “I think between them, we can get to a majority.”
If Sanders’ candidacy continues to be taken seriously, he will eventually be subjected to the scrutiny that Warren and Biden have faced for prolonged stretches. That includes an examination of his electability. “That conversation has never worked well for anyone,” said Pfeiffer. MOST READ Bernie Sanders
Democratic insiders: Bernie could win the nomination Sen. Murkowski ‘disturbed’ by McConnell’s approach on impeachment The 2019 Presidential Campaign Dropouts, Ranked Democrats seize on anti-Obamacare ruling to steamroll GOP in 2020 How Close Did Russia Really Come to Hacking the 2016 Election?
Story Continued Below
Former California Gov. Gray Davis stopped short of saying firm support for Medicare for All would be an impediment for Democrats in the primary, but suggested the risk for the nominee is significant.
“Californians and Americans in general like options — not mandates,” he said.
Faiz Shakir, Sanders’ campaign manager, said political insiders and pundits are rethinking his chances “not out of the goodness of their heart,” but because “it is harder and harder to ignore him when he’s rising in every average that you see.” And he welcomes a conversation about Sanders’ electability, he said.
“We want that,” he said. “I’d love to be able to argue why he stands a better chance to beat Donald Trump than Joe Biden.”
Good.
Put socialism vs. freedom directly in the cross-hairs of a very visible debate in the forum of ideas where socialism and its sad history fails miserably and belongs on history’s ash heap (along with Bernie’s political career).
Regardless of what happens to Comrade Bernie in the primaries his voters are a huge bloc in the Democrat Party, and they will have a large say to what happens to them in 2020.
His turn to get the Seth Rich treatment?
[snip] Sanders is in second place in national polls, nearly 9 percentage points behind Joe Biden, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average. He is second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire... Many moderate Democrats still dismiss Sanders' candidacy... "He can't win the nomination," said Matt Bennet, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way, adding that Sanders' uptick is simply him "bouncing around between his ceiling and his floor a little bit more than people had thought he would." ...[Even recalled loser] Former California Gov. Gray Davis stopped short of saying firm support for Medicare for All would be an impediment for Democrats in the primary, but suggested the risk for the nominee is significant. "Californians and Americans in general like options -- not mandates," he said. [/snip]
Bernie’s a commie ...
If you carefully read Article 2, it merely says “each state shall appoint, in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors equal to the whole number of senators and representatives to which the state may be entitled in Congress;...”
By tradition all states allow every candidate, including minor party candidates, to name a slate of Electors. When we vote for a candidate, we are actually voting for the slate of electors “pledged” to that candidate. The slate that gets the most votes elects that candidate for that particular state.
There is nothing in the Constitution to prevent all kinds of monkeying “in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct...” If you don’t think leftists can manipulate state legislatures to alter the mechanics of presidential elections to their own benefit, you don’t have enough fearful respect for them. They can and will try to do it.
Too soon to tell...Any of them could win...Which means one of them will lose twice...
Where have liberals begun to coalesce around a candidate? In the most liberal parts of Austin, TX, there seems to be only local Democrat yard signs. They likely would have gone with Beto had he stayed in the race.
That’s right; the ancestors of the Revolutionary Green Mountain Boys are die-hard socialists.
People in VT will never figure it out!
if Bernie Sanders become the official Democrat candidate for President that would usher in the end of the Democrat political party
Even though I make fun of Vermonters for enabling this buffoon. I have met a number who love him - its the usual suspects members of the Birkenstock granola arts crowd, teachers & academics. Here in WV there’s a lot of unionistas who still have Bernie 2016 stickers on their cars. I think Bernie could have beaten Trump in 2016. Both tap into a well of anger, Trump was unknown if not somewhat suspect. Bernie’s message of free stuff unfortunately resonates with many. Trump now has a positive record so he’s not the mystery package he once was but the “free stuff” message fools many.
Bernie is NOT going to be the Democrats nomination.
If we learned nothing else about the 2016 Democrat primaries it is that they are fake. Their nominations are selected in smoke filled rooms and then they rig the primaries and the debates so their chosen candidate wins. Although this year I think they are trying for a broker convention and they have a dark horse hidden away to bring out at the last minute.
Bernie Sanders is a communist. He may get the young and stupid vote but middle America is not ready for a communist.
Bernie is also an old white guy. The Democrat “base” is already crying the blues because a person of color is not going to be participating in the debate.
The bottom line is that the Democrat’s playbook (with identity politics) is not working for 2020 when each of their special interest groups know what they promised to the other groups.
Well...considering the DNC worked completely against him in 2016, and the head Deb Shultz was forced to resign, he’s hardly got a chance this year either as you can bet if he gets too close the DNC will do whatever it takes to knock him out of their favored choice.
1. Bernie isn’t corrupt.
2. Bernie isn’t corruptible (doesn’t seek money or sex)
3. He really actually believes the stuff he’s fighting for will help. His powerful beliefs sway MANY, especially young people who don’t understand how socialism doesn’t work because of human nature
4. He’s smart and has a sense of humor and enough modesty to not appear a lying ahole like everyone else
5. He has walked his walk his entire adult life. He doesn’t flip flop or pander.
His biggest problem is that the oligarchy hates him as much as trump because they can’t ”own” either guy. This makes it actually dangerous (to his life and health) for him to get close to the nom.
As Dick Clark was the ‘World’s Oldest Teenager’, Bernie Sanders is the “World’s Oldest Hippy’....................
Just a warning to the money people to get behind the fake Indian.
Trump got a lot of BERNIE votes in 2016.
as you can bet if he gets too close the DNC will do whatever it takes to knock him out
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.