Kiplinger Economic Outlook For All 50 States 2020

Low jobless rates and rising incomes are helping to fatten state coffers across the U.S. Revenue from sales, personal and corporate taxes is on the rise --the best growth since before the Great Recession.

States can expect healthy tax revenues for at least the next several quarters as low unemployment continues, incomes slowly rise, inflation increases modestly and higher energy prices generate more income for states with severance taxes.

But the outlook for individual states is varied, with several regions facing big challenges. The trade war with China is battering the agriculture industry in the Midwest and the prairie states and crimping activity at Southern ports. Manufacturing is slowing down because slowing global growth is hurting exports. New England's economy is slowing as employers struggle to find the workers they need.

Although construction spending is up markedly this year, most states won't boost spending much. As they prepare for 2020, governors and legislatures are eyeing modest spending increases --perhaps reversing cuts made after the Great Recession. They also intend to sock away some of the newfound revenues in rainy-day funds. (See our list of States Most Unprepared for the Next Recession.)

Read on for Kiplinger's exclusive economic outlook --including projected job-growth rates-- for every state, listed alphabetically.

California
Population: 39,557,000

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

2019 job growth: 1.8% (311,400)

2020 job growth: 0.9% (158,100)

“...It’s not just the trade war that is slowing California growth. The population growth rate has been cut in half over the past three years as the number of Californians moving to other states has picked up. In large part, this is a result of California’s high housing prices and the lack of enough affordable construction. Governor Newsom has threatened to withhold funding from localities that fail to meet zoning and construction goals on housing. That would mark a major shift in a state with a reputation for hostility to development. Home prices in the most expensive areas are beginning to edge down, as buyer resistance stiffens. Federal tax deduction limits on state and local taxes has also likely slowed home price increases, as well as reducing disposable income in some high-priced areas.

“Besides housing prices, the fire risk in California has gotten publicity in the past two years. California’s drought is over for now, and the reservoirs are full, but there is a danger that new green growth in the mountainsides will dry out into a new fire hazard if dry conditions return.”

Plus the unmentioned role that mass immigration has played in driving Californians of American ancestry out of the state.

Wisconsin is doing great - thanks to the SAFEGUARDS put in place by Ex-Gov Walker and our Republican House and Assembly (Senate). ‘One And Done’ Evers isn’t doing anything to destroy the economy, which is VERY surprising, but he’s hitting all the high notes with the SJWs in our state. Luckily, the rest of us are just going about our lives and ignoring the tripe that comes out of Madistan. ;)

Wisconsin

Population: 5,814,000

Unemployment rate: 3.1%

2019 job growth: 0.4% (11,900)

2020 job growth: 0.4% (11,900)

Most parts of Wisconsin are doing better than the aggregate forecast suggests. Weakness in Madison is pulling down the state average. However, with slow population growth and unemployment already below 3%, employers are running out of people who have the skills needed for some jobs or who are willing to take lower-wage employment in some service and tourism-related industries.

Wisconsin traditionally generates much of its economic wealth from manufacturing but is beginning to diversify. It is still getting growth from new and expanded factories, including Taiwanese-owned Foxconn Technology Group’s commitment to build a liquid-crystal display manufacturing operation in the southeastern part of the state, though the company has backed off its initial promise of 13,000 jobs.

Trade tensions have taken a toll on Wisconsin’s farm sector. Soybeans are a major cash crop, but exports to China have crashed after China switched to sources in countries other than the United States. At the same time, its dairy farmers are being squeezed by falling milk prices and by surpluses of milk on the market.

There is still fairly strong hiring for construction and within the leisure and hospitality sector including hotels and restaurants. While hiring for manufacturing jobs will slow, there is growth in other areas including warehousing and distribution. Amazon is building a 640,000-square-foot warehousing operation in Oak Creek, a $200 million plant that will employ 1,500 when completed.

Madison will likely get back on track, as entrepreneurs continue to be attracted to the presence of the University of Wisconsin, especially in the biotech, chemistry and computer science fields.

employers struggle to find the workers they need.

We know it is true in New England, in NC, GA, TX.
In how many, and which, states is this a major factor? A minor factor? or no factor at all?

In GA unskilled construction workers, skilled construction workers, skilled IT workers are in demand. Economic growth is capped specifically because there is a lack of employees.

The market for both single family houses and apartment buildings in metro Atlanta has hit a ceiling due to the lack of workers. Commercial projects are behind schedule solely because they cannot find workers. The same is true in IT in Atlanta.

Many construction sites will hire excons and those with less than perfect past. But they can’t allow workers to come to work drunk, or high, or with a hangover.

So how do we convince the unemployed to become employable?

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