Senate Democrats who will lose re-election and why: Part Two

This analysis of Democrat Senate seats being lost to Republicans, is built on the assumption that voters will see every Republican candidate as Donald Trump; and the election is the referendum on Trump’s record as he has framed it.

Democrat Bob Casey junior of Pennsylvania is not particularly popular in the Keystone State.

In the leftist Morning Consult survey of 1st quarter 2017 compared to the 4th quarter of 2017 in-state support of all Senators, Bob Casey dropped 9 points in approval.

Bob Casey junior was elected in 2012 with 53% support based largely the familiarity of the name Bob Casey which put people to mind of his popular father Bob Casey senior.

During his political life, Bob Casey senior was once maneuvered out of an easy victory for a political office by a man named Bob Casey.

The other Bob Casey won the Democrat primary and because Pennsylvania was such a Democrat leaning state he won the election easily.

The next year the furious Bob Casey senior ran an expensive campaign to win his name back; it was known as “Casey isn’t Casey.”

Since 2012 the people of Pennsylvania have been learning that the Bob Casey junior is not the Casey they thought they had voted for.

Pennsylvania is among the most anti-abortion states so it is not an accident that 53 of its 67 counties do not have an abortion mill

In 2016, Pennsylvania had three pivot counties – counties won twice by Barrack Obama then won by Donald Trump.

In 2008 Obama won Pennsylvania with 54% and won those counties by an average of 13.5 points.

In 2012 Obama won Pennsylvania with 51% and won those counties by an average of 8 points.

In 2016 Trump won by .7% and won the three pivot counties by an average of 8 points for a 16 point swing.

Based on publicly available records, Pennsylvania is among the states that has lost registered Democrats since 2016.

Blacks voted Republican at a 7% rate and Hispanics voted Republican at a 22% rate.

Even the most left wing organizations acknowledge that Trump’s support among African Americans is at least 21% which is triple the 2016 number.

There is also general agreement that Trump support among Latinos is at 45% which is at least double what it was in 2016.

If Lou Barletta, the Republican challenger, gets half of the benefit of these improved numbers with African Americans and Latinos Bob Casey is in serious trouble and will lose.

Based on publicly available data, there is ample reason to believe the support of these groups will meet or exceed the 21% and 45% respectively.

President Trump’s rallies with him have gone a long way toward fixing that problem.

Nevertheless, the first advantage for Barletta over Casey who voted No on Trump’s Tax Cuts, is that Pennsylvania is going back to work.

The Keystone State is 5th in the nation in jobs created year to year since June 2017.

The latest unemployment figures for the state show it was among the top ten in recovery; it shaved .2th of a point off its unemployment rolls.

Nevertheless, there is still more to be done in bring Pennsylvania to a par with the rest of the nation and voters know that Democrat Casey voted against Trump’s Tax Cuts and he wants to reverse them if the Democrats get the power to do so.

The seeds of Barletta’s victory were sown in 2016 and an examination of which Pennsylvanians voted and how they voted proves this.

In the final count in Pennsylvania it was just 7% for Trump, but the numbers turned out to be indicative of trouble for Democrat Hillary Clinton anyway because the percentage of the overall vote from African Americans fell a full point to just 10%.

This voter behavior mirrors that of Blacks in Michigan, another “surprise” victory for Donald Trump.

Today we see that the percentage of African Americans who approve of Trump ranges anywhere from 21% to 35% depending on the survey.

While even the lower number would be a crushing blow to Casey, combined with a recent Survey Monkey finding that only 53% of African Americans self-Identify as Democrats, it is a knock- out punch.

Remember Barack Obama got an average of 94% in his two elections with identical 13% of the electorate being Black and Hillary Clinton’s nationwide percentages fell to 89% and 12% of the electorate among Blacks.

If only those African American Pennsylvanians who self-identify as Democrats voted for Casey that would mean Blacks who voted 92% Democrat in 2016 would be barely more than half of what they were just two years ago.

The bullseye for the African American vote in Pennsylvania is Philadelphia which is 43% Black.

In view of the generally agreed upon increase of African American approval of Trump if only the low number is correct the missing Casey votes from Philadelphia will be fatal.

Looking at the 2016 results from Pennsylvania, specially paying attention to the age cohorts, things get really bad for Casey.

A recent poll published by The Atlantic magazine, (no friend of a free America), showed just 28% of young voters were certain to vote this year.

By contrast The Atlantic found 74% of seniors, who made up a combined 58% of voters in Pennsylvania in 2016, said they were certain to vote.

So if this is right, just 28 percent of young voters who made up 16% of the voters in Pennsylvania in 2016, say they will certainly vote in the 2018 midterms.

In 2016, in Pennsylvania 53% of young voters under 40 supported Hillary Clinton by 53% 42% over Trump.

Pennsylvania voters 40 and over, who were 58% of the 2016 electorate, voted 52/45 for Trump.

Overall White voters were 81% of those who voted in Pennsylvania in 2016 and they voted for Trump 56/40.

While there is no official data on the percentage of independents among Pennsylvania voters, 2016, exit polling showed 20% of the electorate self-identified as independent “or other” and that that subgroup voted 48/41 for Trump.

A CNN survey found that by 64/36 independents are angry over the treatment Kavanaugh got at the hands of Democrat Senators.

With independents already favoring Republicans by 7 points this CNN data is another crushing blow to Casey.

Ohio had 9 pivot counties – counties won twice by Obama and then won by Donald Trump.

In 2008 Obama won these counties by an average of 9.8 points; in 2012 Obama won these counties by an average of 8.3 points.

In 2016 Trump completed a 20 point turnaround with his 12.8 point average win of these counties.

Each of these cities has a huge to large African American population with Cleveland at 51%, Cincinnati at 43%, Columbus 28%, and Toledo at 27%.

Even a small falloff of African American support in these cities, which is very likely, will be a fatal blow to Sherrod Brown’s re-election campaign.

Publicly available data shows that registered Republicans in Ohio outnumber registered Democrats by 300,000 voters; and Ohio’s Republicans have been far more disciplined in turning out to vote, despite Democrat voter registration drives.

Brown was one of the first Democrats to fall in line with Chuck Schumer and announce he would vote No on the Kavanaugh confirmation.

This puts him at odds with the 21% of Evangelicals and 27% of Catholics in Ohio which is recognized as one of the most pro-life states in America.

As is the case in other states with sizable Evangelical populations, Ohio’s Christians will be working to bring the truth of Brown’s 100% abortion supporting record to voters.

Catholics will be joining Evangelical Christians in condemnation of Brown’s voting against Neil Gorsuch and Bret Kavanaugh because they see these votes as just two more like Brown’s vote against a ban on even partial birth abortion.

Brown made an “unforced error” by calling a private citizen, “a crooked businessman” in a TV ad and he is now being sued by the man.

In 2016 29% of the Ohio electorate were independents; and they voted 51/37 for Trump.

A CNN survey found that by 64/36 independents are angry over the treatment Kavanaugh got at the hands of Democrat Senators.

With Ohio independents already favoring Republicans by 14 points this CNN data is another crushing blow to Brown.

In 2016 Donald Trump lost Minnesota, which has not been won by a Republican since 1972, by 1 ½ points.

In 2016 Minnesota recorded 19 pivot counties – counties won twice by Barrack Obama and then won by Donald Trump.

In 2008 and 2012 Obama won these counties by an average of 20.15 points and 9.2 points respectively.

Trump won these counties by an average of 13.8 points for an average turnaround of 23 points.

There are three Minnesota Congressional districts that will certainly flip; CD 1 won by Trump by 14 points, CD 7 won by Trump by 30 points and CD 8 won by Trump by 16 points.

Tina Smith, the incumbent Democrat, was appointed when sexual harasser Al Franken was forced to resign from the Senate.

Ordinarily the reason why Franken resigned would not be as important as the fact that he did resign.

Nevertheless, in the era of the Democrats’ savage attacks on Brett Kavanaugh with no evidence but the word of his accuser to support any charges, Smith made a huge error by sending out the following tweet:

“I’m excited to support my friend @keithellison for MN Attorney General. Keith is a progressive champion who has spent his life fighting for civil rights and working people. He'll hold the powerful accountable and be a voice for the vulnerable. He’ll be the People’s Lawyer.”

Keith Ellison’s former girlfriend has made substantiated charges of physical mental and psychological abuse against him backed up by police reports.

In the first “poll” of this race Smith was, as expected, way ahead at 49/35 over her Republican challenger Karin Housley.

These polls were taken just two weeks apart. The very large percentage of “undecided” voters is a significantly good sign for Housley.

By mid-August a Democrat incumbent, even if appointed, should have been in control in Minnesota which has voted Republican on only rare occasions in the last 50 years.

Smith’s problem is that she is “just another Democrat;” and this is not going to be a good year for “just another Democrat[s].”

She is a total rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer and Minnesota voters recognize this fact.

She voted against the Trump Tax cuts and against immigration reform (a very hot issue in Minnesota which is plagued by Muslim “refugees” from the very violent Somalia).

In late September hundreds of Muslim Somali teenagers stormed a peaceful outdoor early Halloween event at Valley Fair Amusement Park in suburban Minneapolis.

Because of the violence against American citizens, the event had to be ended and the police had to close the park to restore order and insure the safety of innocent women children and men who were being harassed and attacked for not being Muslims.

Minnesota’s voters will not forget that Tina Smith’s support for sanctuary cities on Schumer’s orders (as it will be recognized) brought their terrorized children to tears on a day that was supposed to be a happy occasion but was turned into a very hostile atmosphere.

To this day Smith continues to support sanctuary cities; and supports continuing Obamacare.

Smith also voted against confirming Judge Neil Gorsuch and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

Both of these votes put Smith at odds with Minnesota’s 25% Catholic population and 25% Evangelical Christian population.

The combination of Catholics, who voted 52/45 for Trump, and Evangelicals who voted nearly 80/20 for Trump, will represent 41% of the electorate.

Voting against Trump’s economic plans and for sanctuary cities will hang like a millstone around Smith’s neck.

She will not be able to escape her support of Ellison and he will drag her down.

Donald Trump won Wisconsin by .7% after Barrack Obama won the state by 14 points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012.

In 2016 Wisconsin had 23 pivot counties – counties won twice by Barrack Obama then won by Donald Trump.

In 2008 Obama won these counties by an average of 12.8 points; and in 2008 by an average of 8.6 points.

In 2016 Trump won these counties by an average of 15.4 points for a turnaround of 24 points.

The Morning Consult survey of in-state popularity released in January showed Baldwin at 6 points above in the approve/disapprove rating.

In August the Marquette Law School survey found Baldwin leading her Republican challenger by two points at 49/47.

This discrepancy has been “fixed” by a new poll showing Baldwin up double digits.

To believe Baldwin’s popularity has gone up we must believe a lot that is hard to believe.

The survey also showed Republicans with a 69% enthusiasm level compared to 67% for Democrats which was a seven point turnaround from the previous survey.

We are to believe that given what has happened to Kavanaugh, Republican enthusiasm to vote has gone down.

This is very unlikely and if true, it would make Wisconsin standout as maybe the only state in America where, despite the high percentage of Catholics and Evangelicals in the state, the Kavanaugh hearing is depressing Republican enthusiasm to vote.

Besides voting against Trump’s Tax Cuts Baldwin voted against Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.

This puts her at odds with these groups who together make up more than half of the state’s population.

In 2016 weekly Church attending voters in Wisconsin which can be easily read as Catholics and Evangelical Christians voted Republican by a 60/37 margin.

Both groups are angry about how Kavanaugh was treated and are waiting to let their feelings be known.

In 2016 31% of the Wisconsin electorate were independents; and they voted 51/87 for Trump.

A CNN survey found that by 64/36 independents are angry over the treatment Kavanaugh got at the hands of Democrat Senators.

Senator Baldwin votes with Chuck Schumer 94% of the time and I’m sure Republicans in Wisconsin know this to be the case.

I hope you are right about Pennsylvania, but there are still a lot of union people. They are Democrats until the day the die. No matter what the Democrats do or say.

MN would vote out Sen Smith but re-elect Senator Amy K.— at the same time?
And elect Democrat Gov as well.

“They are Democrats until the day the die”

Barletta would have been in that category.

But then he saw his city get invaded by illegals and the urban “democrats” supported it with open borders fanaticism.

The more the reality of what the Rats have done to destroy the American immigration system is apparent to the ordinary people in the upper Northeast the more they realize they’ve been had.

Barletta has run on that and won and will do so again, as long as that point is hammered home.

Paragraph: a distinct section of a piece of writing, usually dealing with a single theme and indicated by a new line, indentation, or numbering.

These are excellent. It’s the only assessment next to LS that makes any sense, and really gives us hope.

Trump must be getting the story that these races are in play. They’re in play for the reasons given here, PLUS THE FACT THAT WE HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO’S NOT A LAZY F... AND GETS OUT THERE.

So, he sees a little blip in the polls, and wolla! He’s has more rallies, and more rallies.

I think we’re going to gain seats in both Houses of Congress.

Voilà

It’s french.

;)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.