Posted on 08/20/2018 6:37:13 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.
A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.
CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.
What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.
To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”
Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.
There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.
There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.
In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.
This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.
In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.
It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.
But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.
Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.
They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”
That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.
The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.
In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.
After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.
The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.
So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?
Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.
On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.
There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.
They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.
Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.
They will support the candidates Trump endorses.
Doesn’t matter. VOTE, VOTE AND VOTE SOME MORE.
Exactly. Pretty much every Democrat running for office has stated that Impeachment is part of their personal set of goals. Don’t give any of these bums the faintest glimmer of an opportunity to impeach the President.
Then every Republican running for office should highlight this fact: all Democrats want Pres. Trump impeached. A vote for a Democrat is a vote for impeachment.
Hammer that home, Republicans, if you’ve got the will to do so. Always in doubt, unfortunately.
It is a great deal because a national generic lead for Democrats is distorted by the geographical distribution. Democrats are concentrated in urban areas where they already have most of the House seats. A 6 or 7 point lead means that the Republicans will have a lead in the areas where it really counts.
Charlie Cook is a dnc stooge. A bought and paid for dnc Stooge.
Nothing the Cook political report says should be believed.
NOTHING!!
BTW defeatist https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/08/20/poll-lou-barletta-bob-casey-dead-heat-pa-senate-race/ Barletta just down 47/45. Gee gang some of you laughed and mocked me when I said Republicans will take 11 Democrat Senate seats.
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