Posted on 07/25/2018 9:05:27 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Knute Buehler, a Republican State Representative, is likely to become the next governor of Oregon. It won’t be an easy job for him. Winning in a statewide election in Oregon is never easy for a Republican.
Nevertheless, the numbers are there to see. They say Buehler is moving up and Kate Brown the current Democrat Governor is fading. In a just released Gravis Poll Buehler has pulled even at 45/45 with 10% undecided or third party.
Brown is likely to lose in November because she is a weak candidate in a race with an energetic challenger that has gotten traction even before the campaign has heated up.
An Oregon PBS survey in January said Brown was ahead 46/29 over Buelher which is not a good number for an incumbent Democrat in a Blue states.
If one didn’t read beyond the headline, it looked like Brown would win without breaking a sweat. But looking at the internals of this 4% MoE survey, conducted by a typical liberal operation, reveal something that was “red flag” material.
It included the fact that Knute Buehler was unknown to 65% of the respondents which gives rise to the possibility of an ABB (Anybody But Brown) streak in the electorate.
An incumbent should not be under 50% to a candidate who was unknown by 65% of voters just a few months ago.
The latest poll, completed on July 17th by Gravis, an actual professional polling company with a 3.5 MoE, found more bad news for Kate Brown as it shows Buehler and Brown tied with at 45% each with ten percent undecided or going third party.
The shift in support has been a remarkable 17 points almost all of which is accounted for by voters moving away from Brown and toward Republican Buehler.
In January 18% said they were undecided meaning Buehler is already outperforming the Republican sample by 8 points and Brown is already underperforming the Democrat sample by 4 points.
The 3.5% margin of error in the Gravis Poll means Brown could be as low as 41.5 and Buehler could be as high as 48.5%; neither is good for a Blue State incumbent in July.
Since the Gravis survey sampling was 49/37 Democrats to Republicans lots of Democrats are supporting Buehler and #walkaway from Democrats could be working in Oregon.
Another bright spot for Buelher is that the single Republican Greg Walden won by 50 points in 2016 while Trump was losing by 7 points. He could be helpful.
Because there are no Senate elections in Oregon this year and none of the House races will be close there will be no unusual buzz about the November ballot in Oregon except at the top of the ticket and an anti-Sanctuary State ballot initiative. That could pull in a wave of conservative voters who will support Buehler.
There is also the question of what minor party members do. The Green Party candidate will certainly hurt Brown: but if the voters in other small “conservative” parties stick with their parties the Independent Party and Constitution Party it could hurt Buehler.
These parties are basically protest parties populated by voters who are angry at both parties but have nowhere to go. If they see an opportunity to get half a loaf from the Oregon government, they could end up voting for Buehler.
If the anti-sanctuary state voters begin to smell blood and see a chance to win something for a change, it could mean a big night for Buehler.
Of course if Donald Trump endorses Knute Buehler which is very likely that could be the knockout punch that will send Kate Brown home empty handed.
I do love good news
Buehler
Buehler
Buehler
Buehler
Oregon hasn’t had a Republican governor since 1975...................
I wonder if the people of Oregon are finally fed up with the antifa pukes.
Only the ones in the east...............
Not for lack of trying from the rural areas of Oregon. Most politicos are elected by the Portland/Salem democrat party voters.
The federal electoral college that evens out national voting would be an ideal system to make voting in Oregon equal.
Keep praying.....
With the way the left always tries to skew the poll numbers, his ratings are probably way better than they are stated.
Aside from the Horse race, he is a weak conservative. Better. I guess.
Like Illinois, they are held captive by the urban areas...............
Lol !!! (I’m the only one that got it !)
The five counties in NW Oregon dominate the other 31, due to demographics. Central and eastern Oregon is sparsely populated.
anything to the right of Karl Marx for Oregon would be an improvement.
But, will it be enough to overcome portlandia’ s lib-o-matic BS?
Like Illinois,Washington, California, they are held captive by the urban areas...............
Oregon hasn’t had a Republican governor since 1975”
Actually since 1987. You forgot this guy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Atiyeh
We can hope antifa in Portland keeps it up all summer and into the fall.
Don’t remember him. Must have been quiet..................
I was surprised no one got to it first.
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