Posted on 09/26/2016 1:28:36 PM PDT by Sean_Anthony
Dunh-dunh-duuuun
Last week, we discussed the fact that Hillary’s odds of victory were collapsing - despite massively outspending her opponent. At the time, her chances of taking the White House had fallen to just over 53%. The data came to us via Nate Silver’s 538 site. Long a favorite among Democrats, Silver is a statistician who rose to national prominence during the 2008 presidential race, when he correctly predicted 49 of 50 state outcomes. In 2012, he went 50 for 50.
A month ago, he gave Hillary Clinton a 96% chance of victory.
How times have changed:
Silver isn’t a pollster, he uses a statistical model to assimiliate the results of polls taken by others. But of course if the polls are crap going in then his model is going to predict crap. He does some weighting adjustments etc you can educate yourself at his site. But if you believe that the polls are slanted to favor Democrats, then mostly his results are going to predict the democrat will win, so this outcome is pretty significant.
And his model predicted 100% of the states right in 08 and all but one in 12.
Nate Silver is solid with his predictions.
When you have Nate, you have H->!’s testicle lockbox.
No question Trump is going to win, but is their graphic accurate?
I noticed the graphic was pretty grainy and went direct to 538 and it’s quite a bit different.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
I’ve been a Pavlovian Dog for the last three days exploring the frequent updates @ 538 vs. “breaking” poll “news”.
The results change throughout the day, as poll results are updated. The "now-cast" poll (the third one) had Trump winning at 55% earlier today. It's changed since then.
Hillary’s back up, he must’ve gotten a call
Took it a him a month later than everyone.
Nate Silver has started wrong all year. Wrong in NCAA BB. Wrong in NBA. He will be wrong with his original odds on Trump too.
And early voting starts soon.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.