Posted on 09/04/2016 12:09:04 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
While Clinton continues to have a structural advantage in the electoral map, there is no doubt Donald Trump is surging and his positive momentum is beginning to have an effect in several state primaries.
Keep in mind, this map is also created based on polling averages which likely are using an outdated turnout model and are assuming democratic voters will turn out as strongly for Hillary as they did for Obama. There are many signs this will not be the case.
Given this inherent bias, Clinton leaning states currently amount to 229 electoral votes, whereas Trump leaning states amount to 154 electoral votes. 155 electoral votes are up for grabs in the “Toss Up” category and 270 electoral votes are needed for victory.
A closer look at the numbers shows an improving landscape for Trump. The last 3 changes in state status have all been in favor of Trump as 3 states (VIRGINIA, PENNSYLVANIA, and WISCONSIN have moved from the “Leaning Clinton” to “Toss Up Category.”
It is likely as Trump’s 3 week positive momentum continues, more states that are currently leaning Clinton, such as Michigan, may also move to the “Toss Up Category” creating a dead heat where 12-15 states will ultimately determine who will be the next President of the United States.
(Excerpt) Read more at truthfeed.com ...
Trump will win.
He’ll lead in the early voting.
Rule of thumb: candidate in lead on Labor Day goes on to win in November.
Obama led on Labor Day in 2008 and 2012 - went on win in November.
I expect Trump to follow suit.
All that money Trump isn’t spending on ads. Likely much of it is going to be spent preventing Dem voter fraud. The best voter fraud prevention team assembled in the history of the US.
I hope you’re right! Is there any news Trump is spending on preventing voter fraud???
Agreed, but there will be shenanigans.
Trump is the only candidate presidential ever that has spoken about voter fraud while campaigning to prevent it. Trump keeps his game plans like these as (S)ecret. He don’t tell the enemy.
The question is: Will HILLARY make it till Election Day? She is going down fast.
No if’s... we are movement, and we can do this! I pray we will!
I do hope that Cher, Streisand and Goldberg have made arrangements to have their belongings packed and ready to go on January 21st.
I just can't imagine this. I literally have not seen one Clinton bumper sticker, yard sign, poster or t-shirt in this heavily blue state of New York. The leftists I know, who wet their pants over Obama, have been either Sanders supporters, or just aren't that interested. I can't see any of them voting for her. She will do best among "traditional" Democrats, government workers, etc...
Rule of thumb: candidate in lead on Labor Day goes on to win in November.
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Trump needs to get on the ball as tomorrow is Labor Day.
That is something that is definitely happening, but we will not hear about it...
Trump is too smart to let that out....
quote “polling averages which likely are using an outdated turnout model and are assuming democratic voters will turn out as strongly for Hillary as they did for Obama.”
That is the KEY point in the entire article.
I don’t believe the polls are wrong or misleading on purpose. They are just assuming a similar turnout to the last election which is usually the case. That ONE assumption is skewing the numbers several points in Hillary’s direction. So any poll which Trump up even a little, is really a sign Trump is up BIG.
Anyone here from PA? I want to hear from someone who lives there and feels the pulse of the state there! To hell with pollsters!! According to them the freakin pickle sour witch is leading there comfortably...I’m confused..some say toss up others say the beast has it in the bag! Very crucial state and was just wondering the situation for trump there!
The polls that are assuming anything more than a 5 point advantage for Democrats are purposefully biased.
Will Streisand, et al. take Glenn Beck, Mark Levin, Hugh Hewitt, George Will, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, John Kasich, Michael Medved, the Bush family, Mitt Romney, and John McCain with them?
the point is... THIS time, they shouldn’t be assuming anything.
They should be doing MASSIVELY large polls to try to determine what the party breakdown will be in November instead of assuming anything.
I would like to see a 100,000 sample national poll to determine the most likely party split in November.
The next two weeks have to do a whole lot to get those voters to not vote for hillary, or at the very least not cast an early vote for hillary.
That dang early voting is tricky. After that begins, there might be voter's remorse. Even in polls, they might say they support Trump, but if their vote is already cast it doesn't do any good for our cause.
Dunno about that, but while we like USC, Rasmussen, IDB, UPI, and others that show Trump up, Monmouth (which had to cheat to do it), Fox, and a couple of “big” polls have Cankles up.
Selena Zito did an article about PA and the hidden Trump vote there that Rush read a week ago.
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