Posted on 05/05/2016 11:41:16 AM PDT by Peter ODonnell
This sudden and orchestrated list of events -- Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out, Romney not to attend GOP Convention, Bush family not to attend -- and others beyond -- suggests to this observer that the other shoe is about to drop.
We must be careful at Free Republic to realize that a prevailing mood here is not necessarily an indication of a strong prevailing mood elsewhere in American political culture. It might be at best what one third of one half are thinking, in other words, what one-sixth of the voters accept to be orthodox self-evident truth.
The fact that you and I believe something does not make it true or even feasible that many of the other five-sixths of the political spectrum accept or believe it.
So it would not surprise me, and it should not surprise you, if the following scenario or something like it unfolds.
First, the Republican Party will announce that the Cleveland convention is no longer happening. They will say that they accept the nomination of Donald Trump to run as president is inevitable but that he cannot have the endorsement of the Republican Party. That would no doubt lead to numerous large legal battles fought mainly at the state level. But as a political fait accompli, if the party mechanism does not move into the convention centre, then it is basically de facto a Donald Trump Independent for President convention with whatever supporters of his decide to show up. What they do and decide will then determine how the Trump campaign proceeds although if any wind of this reaches the Trump forces before mid- to late May, clearly there are legal problems they need to investigate on a number of levels.
One of those will be, how does Donald Trump get his name on ballots? How is he to be styled on the ballots?
Meanwhile, I would expect the Republican Party to announce a new and different convention location, wherein delegates appointed by a process that they fully control would choose a nominee. That person would then go onto the ballot as the Republican depending on the outcome of any legal challenges brought by Donald Trump.
One really has to wonder if, confronted with this situation, Donald Trump would want to go before the voters as a Republican anyway.
This process would create more or less the same dynamics as the 1992 election. There would be a maverick iconoclast (like Perot), a relatively unpopular Republican establishment candidate, and a Clinton. But of course, not the charismatic and seductive one, but the old one with baggage and huge question marks (in the 20-20 hindsight that we all have, of course, the first one had those same attributes, except not so many people knew).
So would that be a cakewalk for Hillary Clinton? Probably not. Both of her opponents would easily be able to rebut her assertions that the Republican process was anti-democratic. Bernie Sanders proves that point, more people are actually voting for him than for Hillary in most states so far. But he has no path to the nomination either.
Do you folks think this could happen? I think the tells are pretty obvious. Or will the party go through the motions of lukewarm support but spring a third option after the convention on the grounds that Trump is trailing badly in the polls? (if that happens)
Of course, one thing would forestall all of this -- Ted Cruz as running mate. There's no way the GOP would roll the dice against 70% of the primary voters, they might try it against 45%.
This is just my opinion. I have no insider knowledge.
(cue the History Channel bad hair pictures)
I think you are wrong about canceling the convention. But you are on the right track. The Rockefeller wing of the Republican party has been running it since Reagan left office with only one or two hiccups of conservatism. The 94 Contract with America and the 2010 Tea Party revolt. In 94, they rode it out and got what they wanted in 2000. In 2010, they simply lied and stonewalled until 2016 hit like a ton of bricks. If they cancel the convention now, they not only lose the election, but more important to them they lose their party. No I think what we will see is more and more of the GOPe boycotting the convention. Then after the convention, they will hold another nominating convention. with some high minded name like, “ A Conservative Answer” convention. Please note, the adjective Conservative. It will be thrown around like pork barrel expenditures during the next 120 days.
As the old Cowboy told me when we partnered up 30 years ago;
“If you have to tell people what you are, You probably ain’t.
Cruz has said in the past that he will drop out when he has lost mathematical possibility to win 1237 delegates. Cruz lost that opportunity and yet stayed in there hoping for a brokered convention. He quit only after Indiana handed him one of his worst defeats in this election cycle.
Where is the SUDDENNESS?
No, Area 57 is correct. It’s the really super secret alien storage facility up the road from Area 51 (right next to Area 56)
In spite of what you are hearing, this has little to do with Cruz or Trump.
This has to do with John McCain and his political friends.
If Trump makes it to the General, McCain and his entire staff are history.
McCain and Schumer run the Senate and what they say goes.
Combined with a REAL fear in the Clinton Camp of Trump, this is what is delivering all this “panic” in the RNC.
The real panic is AZ and the upper levels of the DNC.
Actually, I think you and some others may be assuming the opposite of my actual motives, if you’re suggesting my post helps the RINO cause (I assume that’s the implication).
By calling a bluff, I hope to get this out in the open as quickly as possible. Do you think I have any control over what’s going to happen? I’m not even a resident of the United States. I have less control over these events than any of you might. Zero control. I would also fear the consequences of this outcome. But I don’t think that denying its possibility is helpful in any way.
Sorry, I thought that was required when I signed up here.
The RNC is a 527 tax exempt organization subject to some regulation. They publish a set of rules and regulations, and Trump followed those rules, as did everyone else.
I would think that if challenged, it would be Trump who is entitled to all the accoutrements of the party, and not some rogue candidate who did not follow the 527 group's bylaws.
That said, I could see a renegade Republican candidate funded by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and other groups who might try to mount an independent run, but that candidate would not be entitled to the Republican designation.
The strategy would be the Cruz plan to keep Trump from getting 270 Electoral College votes. If they could force the election into the House, the Paul Ryan led Republicans would choose the independent Republican over Trump to become the next President.
-PJ
I don’t think this is silly.
I don’t think it will happen, but it is not a silly thought.
I’ve thought similarly - that the RNC may simply say “we don’t care, Trump is not the nominee. We nullify it”. Or something like that.
Your scenario is interesting.
I don’t think, though, that they have the guts to do it.
Also, Prince Rebus is salivating at all the indirects he will get from Trump fund raising. Notice as soon as Trump said he’s going to take RNC money and donations, Prince Rebus is all aboard the Trump train.
“........the GOP will rally behind Trump. No third Party stab in the back for the Republican Party.”.....
If they try something like that, it WILL INDEED be the end of the Republican party. Basically it’s “suicide”
“Somehow, I don’t think the Republican party wants to anger the entire city of Cleveland for this nutty little scenario of yours.”
There are only a few Republicans in Cleveland. Rioters and looters might get mad at the missed chance for mayhem though!
The push will be to co-opt Trump into the Globalist/Elite agenda of the Oligarchs so that overall nothing really changes no matter who is elected.
This I agree with, now back to your desk at CNN, you have important work to do in this regard (just kidding, I assume the reference is to a more musical Wolfie).
Donald Trump could approach a microphone and utter the words “Write in” and walk away.
If you compile this strategy (Or any strategy) with Bernie wandering off the democrat plantation, the numbers simply will NOT be there for a Clinton presidency.
My prediction is a Clinton presidency. Always has been. I will vote for Trump and I truly believe that Trump has the numbers to win. I pray that our system isn’t so corrupt that my next prediction is correct.
Hillary didn’t even start to campaign until February. It’s as if someone woke her up one afternoon and told her she has to at least fake it.
Hillary operates like she knows something. She operates like the oval office has already been given to her. Her responses to every and any debate never comes from her. It comes from talking points. She’s turning bored and robotic in this.
I believe she just wishes she could kill the competition and simply be crowned the Queen (Not the president).
I firmly believe that if Trump doesn’t make republican nomination, that it is the end of the party. I do believe that Trump will carry enough right-wing votes that whoever the GOP puts up will be demolished.
I believe that in a fair election, Trump has the numbers RIGHT NOW to turn the whole map red. Mathematically, there is very little chance of a Hillary presidency.
Now if Bernie stays in the race (Chances aren’t good), and Hillary wins then the fix is in. There simply will NOT be enough math to backup the election. It will be rigged.
And rigging elections is all that Hillary and her ilk are about. They can’t win in a fair match-up in the USA. They have play games with districts and races. A communist never fights clean. They can’t.
LOL. This afternoon is dedicated to beard grooming.
Dumb
It's also the number of nations in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Quite a coincidence, eh?
No way.. The GOPe Peaheads now know they can’t get away with anything blatant.
However.. I do believe they are up to something.. Their playing nice-nice reeks of it.. They aren’t giving up that easy. They are sneaky, lying SOBs.. Stay aware.
“I have no insider knowledge”
Yeh we can see that by wasting one full minute of our lives that we can’t get back reading your crackpot little theory. LOL!
This is my idea of a Trump-Blitzer conversation:
WOLF — You’re nuts, right? I mean, you’re just nuts.
TRUMP — Yeah, I have people working on it, I won’t be nuts by January.
WOLF — You will spare Buffalo, right?
TRUMP — Yeah, I will build a casino there.
WOLF — I knew you were crazy. A casino in Buffalo? Do you want to go broke?
Note: I voted for Trump nine days ago. But . . .
I posted nearly two months ago, and repeatedly thereafter, that I would support Trump as the only acceptable candidate who could get a first ballot nomination. I also posted repeatedly that I hoped Cruz would stay in until just before the first ballot, because that would be the best thing for Trump.
It’s too late now, but if Cruz had stayed in as the establishment hope and then freed his delegates just under an hour before the first round ballot, those delegates could have voted for Trump but they would not have been permitted to support the nomination of anyone else. Yes, I know, that’s a sneaky trick, but it’s also a good one.
While I hope there won’t be much force behind my “I told you so”, and I hope you are wrong on the GOP cancelling the convention, I stand by my statement. Trump would have been much better off if Cruz had stayed. Cruz gave the opposition a just barely acceptable alternative and an almost but not quite viable option, which kept them from following any higher risk strategy. Those who hounded Cruz and trashed his reputation unfairly (and most of it was unfair), could end up regretting their tactics and the outcome. I just hope the price will not be too high.
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