Skip to comments.Why There WILL Be a Contested Convention.
Posted on 04/24/2016 9:27:12 AM PDT by ziravan
Donald Trump will not reach 1237 delegates before the GOP July Cleveland Convention and there will be a floor fight for the Nomination.
For the purposes of this analysis, both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are peripheral characters. Both will continue to pursue their best strategy to the nomination, Trump on first ballot, Cruz on 2nd or 3rd (most likely 4th after Florida delegates are released).
There will be a contested convention because the media will push for it.
1. Blood in the streets in Cleveland? Damn, that's a generational story. Somebody's gonna win a Pulitzer here.
2. Permanent fracture in the GOP? That's the left's wet dream.
All you have to do is look at the flow of the narrative to understand that the media is fully vested in a contested convention and everything they hope to gain from it.
They haven't put thousands of camera hours into this narrative to let it slip away.
Fortunately for them, getting from here to there is a two step jump. After this Tuesday, the narrative will be (is already starting) that Sen Cruz is remaking himself into a more positive image - he's being nicer, showing his humanity- and is gaining new respect in Indiana).
Between Indiana on May 3rd and California on Jun 7, the media will have a month to sell its story to its home base, California.
Bernie Sanders most likely drops after Tuesday's election, so there will be no Democrat primary to attract democrat voters. Also, voting for offices below President in California goes by two most popular vote getters, regardless of party. This means democrat voters can switch to vote in the GOP Presidential primary without losing the ability to vote for their choices "down ballot". And, the deadline to switch is May 23rd.
Now. Democrat crossover has been good for Donald Trump, right? Partially, yes, however, with a contested democrat primary, crossover voters have generally been disaffected democrat voters.
California, with no contested democrat primary and for all the Presidential marbles on the GOP side, will bring out a different democrat animal, an Operation Chaos democrat. Chaos this cycle for the GOP certainly favors a contested convention.
The only check to voting for Chaos is that for Cali leftists, that's a vote for Cruz. Here though, Trump's more strident supporters are making the case by threatening to walk. Daydreams of a permanent rift in the GOP will be make Nominee Cruz more palatable to leftists who believe such a rift makes him unelectable. And that's even assuming the convention doesn't turn to a white knight that will make things worse!
Watch the narrative after Tuesday. Sen. Cruz being the little engine that could narrative for Indiana is a portend for a straight month of media influencing the California outcome.
The media wants a contested convention. They will work for it. They already are working for it. Fortunately for the media, they get a month to play to their home base, California.
That's the set up for the coming media narrative in California.
Trump easily gets 1237 and Cruz is a distant memory by California
Usually things are pretty settled by the Indiana primary time in May. This year we’re being carpet-bombed with Cruz and Trump and PAC ads on tv. Also I’m probably averaging 6 phone calls a day from polls and candidates.
You must be in Colorado because whatever you’re smoking...
Bernie won’t drop out as long as he is within points of beating Hillary in California.
There will be a contested convention because the media will push for it. ///
They will huh...
What do you base that on aside from personal opinion?
Your high school essay/ pro cruz/ unlabeled Vanity is soon for the ozone I suspect.
Initial premise is flawed
This guy is from Texas, a cruz bot...and no there will be no brokered convention, nomatter what your boss Cruz is telling you...Trump will win on the first ballot and then on to wipe out the Shrill FINALLY!!!
Another delusional vanity from a pro Cruz Texan?
You should go read Jim’s thread from yesterday.
I do support Sen Cruz.
In this case though, my observation undermines that support by pointing out that the real threat of a contested convention isn’t some GOP white knight, but the hard feelings it will continue to stoke.
The leftist power brokers in the media want to stoke those hard feelings.
Maybe on the Democrat side...
Cruz is done. The proof of his ineligibilty will soon become public and the sex scandal is not going away, as more evidence will be put forth to expose his lies and deceipt.
I’m just guessing you are a Cruz supporter, but your silly little vanity scenario gives it away. In case you missed it, the GOPe is about ready to throw Cruz under the bus in the next week or so. Trump is going to wallop the little Cubanadian this week amd will go up by about 400 delegates. Manafort and friends are making nice with the GOPe as everyone comes to terms with a Trump presidency.
Trump and Manafort were brilliant in hammering on the rigged system the last two weeks. Ted was never anything other than a vehicle to deny Trump the nomination. Now hat the GOPe has been exposed for what they are, and the voters see it (reflected in the polls), the GOPe has no choice but to get on the Trump train or risk total destruction of the party. Ted will be told to suspend his campaign sometime after Indiana so Trump can wrap things up neatly for the nomination. I really have no patience for these stupid little vanities popping up everywhere with the Cruzlims trying to paint scenarios for the faux American.
Your argument that the convention will be contested is because the media wants it that way only works if you ignore many other factors that become more evident with each passing day.
Cruz can no longer get a majority of delegates before the convention, so all he and Kasich have left is their plans to disenfranchise millions of voters and the process by manipulating the delegate selection process. That is a longshot.
I’ve been here for 11 years. If I get zotted for pointing out that the media has it in for us, all of us, so be it.
Watch the narrative.
Presumptive nominee or not, has the media given up their focus on a contested convention?
Ashley Cruz, once respected, is now
a LOOK-at-ME monkey, dancing like the CanCubanCapuchin
he is for his Globalist and Soros and Romney Masters.
What a fool, as are all who support the
Trump will win all 5 primaries on Tuesday, Cruz will be in last place in at least 3 of them. Cruz will be in the exact same place Kasich is come Wednesday, needing more delegates than those available. Cruz will be crushed in Indiana. With 7 big wins behind him, Trump will be like a boulder rolling down hill, crushing everyone in his path. He’s already got a double digit lead in California, and that will only grow, and Trump will easily have 1237 by the night of June 7th.
The media and the gop establishment, and their puppet Cruz, are salivating at the prospect of a contested convention, but the voters are smart enough to realize that the only one who benefits from that kind of chaos is Clinton.
Your entire premise - and I'm being kind calling it a premise - is based on the idea of Cruz gaining in Indiana, when in fact the to-the-minute polling clearly shows Cruz is going to lose in Indiana, with Trump's lead beyond the margin of error:
I just do not understand this aggressive Tedlim desire to be publically humiliated. None of you ever have the facts to back up anything you say.
Your theory makes sense. On another thread I’m trying to point out that having the necessary number doesn’t automatically mean you will be nominated. The rules can and will be changed.
I saw cracks today on Meet the Press regarding a contested convention.
The media loves to push an agenda but also hates to be proven wrong. The agenda pushing hasn’t worked out for them so now they have to gradually switch to what they see is actually happening and what they can now not change.
Which is a Trump nomination.
Cruz is already an asterisk in history, and that’s what he will remain.
Trump will continue to play the media like a Stradivarius.
The media can’t help themselves, it’s all about the ratings.
Trump gets the nomination and goes on to beat Clinton in the general.
End of story.
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