Posted on 04/13/2016 9:04:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The conventional wisdom is that though Ted Cruz can excite the conservative-activist base of the Republican party, he cant beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. But the recent head-to-head polling tells a different story. Unless your name is George W. Bush, its tough to win 270 electoral votes without winning the popular vote. And Cruz is hanging in there against the Democratic front-runner. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 46.4 percent and Cruz at 43.9 percent; the most recent McClatchy-Marist survey has it a tie. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, hasnt led Clinton in any national poll since mid February, and trails her by 10.6 points in the RCP average. Democrats will contend the Texas senator is unlikeable, and scoff that about 53 percent of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz . . . a charge that would carry more weight if 54 percent of adults didnt have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Cruz and his campaign have openly discussed a general-election strategy focused upon mobilizing conservative voters who havent turned out in recent cycles, and de-emphasizing an appeal to swing voters. Quite a few political scientists, pollsters, and analysts are skeptical that the approach can win, but what if 2016 comes down to Hillary Clinton, unloved by the Sanders-backing progressive base and distrusted by independents, against Cruz and an energized GOP base? As NR reported back in January, Cruz heads the most data-driven campaign in the GOP race, employing cutting-edge technology to profile, target, and turn out supporters. Statistical awareness permeates the culture of the operation from the candidate to his most junior aides. Based on the Cruz campaigns deft maneuvering in the delegate chase, theres some reason to believe the Texas senators claims that he can win by focusing on the little details and mobilizing previously ignored voters.
Trump also contends hell bring out new voters, winning over blue-collar independents and the old Reagan Democrats. His fans have argued that he would put a lot of traditionally Democratic states, such as New York and Michigan, back in play. But so far, theres little evidence to back up that claim; Trump trails Clinton in his home state of New York by 16 to 29 points. In the three polls in Michigan in March, Trump trailed by double digits. (Unsurprisingly, Cruz polls badly in these states, too.) Florida is one of the few states where Trump is running better against Clinton than Cruz is. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead over Clinton in about half the recent polls there, while Clinton nurses a small but steady lead over Cruz. (For what its worth, the latest CNN poll has Cruz ahead of her by one point in Florida.)
Cruz is running surprisingly well in Ohio. The most recent NBC News/Marist poll puts Cruz ahead of Clinton by two points there, while Trump trails her by six. Quinnipiac, the only recent poll of the Buckeye State to show Trump leading Clinton, has Cruz ahead of her by three and Trump up by two. RELATED: Ted Cruz Is Surging by Design Pennsylvania is one of those states that seems to tease the GOP every election cycle, only to vote for the Democratic nominee by a comfortable margin. Winning Pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes would provide a big boost to any Republican nominee, forcing the Democrats to pick off votes on less-friendly terrain. The good news for Trump is that the most recent poll, by Fox News, has him tied in Pennsylvania. But the four preceding polls of the state showed him trailing Clinton by anywhere from three to 13 points. Fox News didnt ask about a CruzClinton matchup, but Quinnipiac has Cruz and Clinton tied in Pennsylvania, while Clinton is ahead of Trump by three.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of those potential swing states where Republicans have struggled to compete in recent presidential cycles. Even the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012 only reduced Obamas margin of victory from 14 points to seven. But Cruz is running surprisingly close there; the Emerson poll puts Clinton ahead of him by three points and the Marquette University survey has them tied. The two polls put Trump behind Clinton by ten points. One of the biggest contrasts between the GOP candidates comes in Iowa. NBC News and PPP have Clinton ahead of Tump by eight points and two points respectively. The same polls put Cruz ahead of Clinton by four points and three points. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments for nominating Cruz over Trump is that it would lock up states Republicans should never have had to worry about in the first place. The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.
A 28-point lead for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton in Utah is not particularly surprising but it is noteworthy given that Clinton actually leads Trump by two in the latest poll of this conservative stronghold, which hasnt voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Democrats have dreamed of turning Arizona into a swing state for years; the Merrill poll found Clinton tied with Trump there. The same poll showed Cruz leading Clinton by six points. In Mississippi, a Mason-Dixon poll put Trump ahead of Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. The same poll put Cruz ahead of her, 51 percent to 40 percent. If Cruzs strategy was such a sure loser, so devoid of appeal to anyone outside the conservative base, we might expect his head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton to be as bad as Trumps. But in state after state, Cruz runs better than Trump against the likely Democratic nominee. Perhaps this reflects Clintons persistently high disapproval numbers, or maybe Trumps smash-mouth braggadocio makes Cruz look comparably warm and fuzzy. Either way, at this point, Cruz appears to have a legitimate shot against Clinton not a great shot, but a shot. The same cannot be said of Trump. You do the math.
“Safe Bets” got us Dole, Bush, McCain and Romney.
No I am asking 2ndDivisionVet personally, is he in the employ of the Cruz campaign?
Yes or no, 2ndDivisionVet?
“If its in Gateway Pundit or Conservative Treehouse it must be true.”
When you post from the sources you referenced I will give due consideration.
Under regulations established in the 1980s, delegates cannot take money from corporations, labor unions, federal contractors or foreign nationals. But an individual donor is permitted to give a delegate unlimited sums to support his or her efforts to get selected to go to the convention, including money to defray the costs of travel and lodging.
From the Washington Post, 4/11/16.
Although I would prefer a Pres. Trump, I have to agree with the author. Trump presents himself very differently on various occasions. And not in a good way. Many times, he will say something poorly thought out or quite wreckless, something we who would vote for him are just expected to shrug off.
Wasn’t it just two days ago that Donald said were he in office, he might approve selling malfunctioning missiles to Iran, just to hobble their progress and security status. What? That’s not something he should even be joking about, at least not publicly. Donald shakes my confidence when he does dumb stuff like that, shooting himself in the foot over and over.
It doesn't matter whether 2DV is a paid propagandist or not.
The stench of desperation emanating from the Cruz campaign is growing stronger with each passing day.
It's directly proportional to the frequency of 2DV's posting of clumsy and feeble GOPe propaganda, such as this National Review tripe...
2nd Amendment doesn’t work for Cruz, but he is gonna enjoy stringing you along.
No one on this board has any business condemning Cruz. It’s only recent-infiltrators from the left.
I could accept a Cruz loss in November. Principled conservatism. Not so with Trump.
His refusal to answer means yes.
“But I don’t like spam.”
Say it ain’t so, Cee!
What is NOT propaganda is the Cruz “BRUTUS” litmus test that TRUMP supporters under go.
To be selected as a delegate for TRUMP, you must promise to vote for Cruz on all ballots following the First Ballot. TRUMP supporters must lie convincingly to even be considered for a vote.
TRUMP’s “Earned delegates” are frauds. They are largely Cruz supporters. This will have to be addressed.
Hopefully, they will be ejected at the National Convention.
The Yellow Kid points the way to yellow journalism...
yes, it’s very safe to say that Cruz would not win any more states than Romney. He would safely lose. Very safely lose, and it wouldn’t be close.
I don’t know about that.
I have known 2ndDivisionVet for quite a while on this board. He however is different this time around. Very, very much into promoting Cruz. Big time, promoting Cruz. As in constantly.
Out of character, in fact.
I am asking 2ndDivisionVet whether he is paid to post pro-Cruz nonsense on this board.
Don’t listen to the haters. They cannot imagine why you would spend time on something you truly believe in. They think like their candidate who has been all over the map and changes his stance on issues five times over the course of one minute.
This article is so twisted it is pretzel logic.
If Ted gets the nomination, I’ll vote for him over Hillaryous Rotten Criminal but Tom Cruise would have a better chance of beating her, especially in New York or California.
Don’t need safer, need revolution. Need to destroy corruption in government and end the reign of oligarchs. Need to end crushing bureaucracy and stop government intrusion. Need constitutional government, laws that are just and enforced. Cruz will give us none of that. Trump will do at the very least some of it. We must do the rest.
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