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Cruz Is a Safer General-Election Bet than Trump
The National Review ^ | April 12, 2016 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 04/13/2016 9:04:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The conventional wisdom is that though Ted Cruz can excite the conservative-activist base of the Republican party, he can’t beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. But the recent head-to-head polling tells a different story. Unless your name is George W. Bush, it’s tough to win 270 electoral votes without winning the popular vote. And Cruz is hanging in there against the Democratic front-runner. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 46.4 percent and Cruz at 43.9 percent; the most recent McClatchy-Marist survey has it a tie. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, hasn’t led Clinton in any national poll since mid February, and trails her by 10.6 points in the RCP average. Democrats will contend the Texas senator is unlikeable, and scoff that about 53 percent of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz . . . a charge that would carry more weight if 54 percent of adults didn’t have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Cruz and his campaign have openly discussed a general-election strategy focused upon mobilizing conservative voters who haven’t turned out in recent cycles, and de-emphasizing an appeal to swing voters. Quite a few political scientists, pollsters, and analysts are skeptical that the approach can win, but what if 2016 comes down to Hillary Clinton, unloved by the Sanders-backing progressive base and distrusted by independents, against Cruz and an energized GOP base? As NR reported back in January, “Cruz heads the most data-driven campaign in the GOP race, employing cutting-edge technology to profile, target, and turn out supporters. Statistical awareness permeates the culture of the operation from the candidate to his most junior aides.” Based on the Cruz campaign’s deft maneuvering in the delegate chase, there’s some reason to believe the Texas senator’s claims that he can win by focusing on the little details and mobilizing previously ignored voters.

Trump also contends he’ll bring out new voters, winning over blue-collar independents and the old Reagan Democrats. His fans have argued that he would put a lot of traditionally Democratic states, such as New York and Michigan, back in play. But so far, there’s little evidence to back up that claim; Trump trails Clinton in his home state of New York by 16 to 29 points. In the three polls in Michigan in March, Trump trailed by double digits. (Unsurprisingly, Cruz polls badly in these states, too.) Florida is one of the few states where Trump is running better against Clinton than Cruz is. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead over Clinton in about half the recent polls there, while Clinton nurses a small but steady lead over Cruz. (For what it’s worth, the latest CNN poll has Cruz ahead of her by one point in Florida.)

Cruz is running surprisingly well in Ohio. The most recent NBC News/Marist poll puts Cruz ahead of Clinton by two points there, while Trump trails her by six. Quinnipiac, the only recent poll of the Buckeye State to show Trump leading Clinton, has Cruz ahead of her by three and Trump up by two. RELATED: Ted Cruz Is Surging by Design Pennsylvania is one of those states that seems to tease the GOP every election cycle, only to vote for the Democratic nominee by a comfortable margin. Winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would provide a big boost to any Republican nominee, forcing the Democrats to pick off votes on less-friendly terrain. The good news for Trump is that the most recent poll, by Fox News, has him tied in Pennsylvania. But the four preceding polls of the state showed him trailing Clinton by anywhere from three to 13 points. Fox News didn’t ask about a Cruz–Clinton matchup, but Quinnipiac has Cruz and Clinton tied in Pennsylvania, while Clinton is ahead of Trump by three.

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of those potential swing states where Republicans have struggled to compete in recent presidential cycles. Even the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012 only reduced Obama’s margin of victory from 14 points to seven. But Cruz is running surprisingly close there; the Emerson poll puts Clinton ahead of him by three points and the Marquette University survey has them tied. The two polls put Trump behind Clinton by ten points. One of the biggest contrasts between the GOP candidates comes in Iowa. NBC News and PPP have Clinton ahead of Tump by eight points and two points respectively. The same polls put Cruz ahead of Clinton by four points and three points. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments for nominating Cruz over Trump is that it would lock up states Republicans should never have had to worry about in the first place. The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.

A 28-point lead for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton in Utah is not particularly surprising — but it is noteworthy given that Clinton actually leads Trump by two in the latest poll of this conservative stronghold, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Democrats have dreamed of turning Arizona into a swing state for years; the Merrill poll found Clinton tied with Trump there. The same poll showed Cruz leading Clinton by six points. In Mississippi, a Mason-Dixon poll put Trump ahead of Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. The same poll put Cruz ahead of her, 51 percent to 40 percent. If Cruz’s strategy was such a sure loser, so devoid of appeal to anyone outside the conservative base, we might expect his head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton to be as bad as Trump’s. But in state after state, Cruz runs better than Trump against the likely Democratic nominee. Perhaps this reflects Clinton’s persistently high disapproval numbers, or maybe Trump’s smash-mouth braggadocio makes Cruz look comparably warm and fuzzy. Either way, at this point, Cruz appears to have a legitimate shot against Clinton — not a great shot, but a shot. The same cannot be said of Trump. You do the math.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Politics
KEYWORDS: 1canadian; 1stcanadiansenator; 2canadian; 2dvomit; 3canadian; agitprop; alltherightenemies; angertrolling; blogging4cruz; blogpimp; consensuscracking; cruslimhypocrits; cruz; cruzagitprop; cruzbundlerposting; cruzcorkerbill; cruzh1b; cruzisobama2; cruzlims; cruzreview; cubanmistresscrisis; cuckservative; cuckservatives; danielgabriel; eduardorafaelcruz; forumsliding; gainingfullcontrol; gangof14; gaslighting; gettingold; globalistcruz; hillary; howarddeanredux; incestuousted; jimgeraghty; lemonadestand; lyinted; merrickgarlandlvscrz; moosebitsister; nationalreview; noteligiblecruz; ntsa; ny; obamapartdeux; openboarderscruz; prolife; propagandadujour; scruz; selectednotelected; sparechange; ssdd; stopthesteal; tdscoffeclutch; tdsforumtakeover; tdsincoming; tedcruz; tediban; tedspacificpartners; toknowtedistohateted; topicdilution; topicrepostabsurdum; trump; usualsuspect; wearesocuck; willthemudstick; yellowjournalism; youcruzyoulose
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To: Axeslinger; cba123

>> why don’t you address the issues of the articles <<

Frowned up, my FRiend, definitely frowned upon. Personal insults and stomping on the floor are much more fun!


141 posted on 04/14/2016 6:39:25 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: cba123

He’s a bundler for Cruz. What renumeration that entails, I don’t know.


142 posted on 04/14/2016 6:54:47 AM PDT by ebshumidors
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To: jimpick
How do you think anyone will accept you view point if you attack them?

You might want to look-up the definition of "insanity". I did and thus gave-up trying to reason with you idiots long ago.
143 posted on 04/14/2016 7:34:53 AM PDT by JoSixChip (Cruz <- sleaze; Clinton <- criminal; Trump <- write-in)
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To: jimpick
So now that the race is down to basically 2 candidates you think because Trump can get a higher percentage that is some how a achievement? Trump still has only gotten about a third of the vote.

It is really down to a one man race. After April 26, only Trump will have a path to 1,237. Cruz and Kasich will have no mathematical shot at the number. Right now, Trump must win 60% of the remaining delegates while Cruz must win 90%.

Trump has won 37% of the popular vote compared to 28% for Cruz. 9% is almost landslide proportions and the percentage will grow significantly after Tuesday.

In 2008 McCain became the presumptive nominee of the party with only 33% of the vote. Romney dropped out after FL and Cruz should have as well. Cruz is just a vehicle along with Kasich for the GOPe stop Trump movement.

144 posted on 04/14/2016 8:26:15 AM PDT by kabar
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To: JoSixChip

Like it or not both Cruz and Trump supporters have to work together or niether Trump or Cruz gets elected. Trump has only received about 1/3 of the Republican vote. Half that is only about 16 to 18% of the voters.

With Trumps negatives he is not going to get elected without the Cruz vote. The article posted cites Trumps negatives as to why he will be the worse candidate.

So if you want to keep insulting Cruz supporters and losing more support for your candidate isnt that insanity? Both Trump and Cruz supporters want the same thing for the country. That is a return to sanity.

Your time would be better spent opening up to the people who are most likely to line up with your view point than attacking them.


145 posted on 04/14/2016 8:29:20 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: kabar

You are right on McCain only getting 33% of the vote. And that is the point I am trying to make. Trump has according to your numbers gotten 37% and Cruz has received 28%. That leaves 45% of the vote so far unaccounted for. That is a huge number that have voted already.

It remains to see where they go from here. Both Trump and Cruz both lost that 45%. Cruz is working hard to get them and is being called a cheater for that and working by the rules to get more where the GOPe have made it hard to get them.

The whole point of the article is to kind of tell where that 45% will end up and others besides that. Is it true they will be with Cruz, I dont know. But it is where I am thinking they will go.


146 posted on 04/14/2016 8:36:56 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: jimpick
You are right on McCain only getting 33% of the vote. And that is the point I am trying to make. Trump has according to your numbers gotten 37% and Cruz has received 28%. That leaves 45% of the vote so far unaccounted for. That is a huge number that have voted already.

The votes are not unaccounted for. We know exactly who received those votes.

It remains to see where they go from here. Both Trump and Cruz both lost that 45%. Cruz is working hard to get them and is being called a cheater for that and working by the rules to get more where the GOPe have made it hard to get them.

You can't get back votes cast for someone else. Cruz is trying to get the delegates at the convention, the vast majority of whom are pledged for the first round to vote for a specific candidate based on the primary results in their state. The only path to the nomination for Cruz and the other 15 others who ran in the primaries is a contested convention. Ryan has said essentially that all 17 candidates who started the race are eligible to be the nominee. It is why Kasich is staying in the race along with Cruz. Both have no shot at 1,237 mathematically form the primaries.

The whole point of the article is to kind of tell where that 45% will end up and others besides that. Is it true they will be with Cruz, I dont know. But it is where I am thinking they will go.

If you think they are all going to coalesce around Cruz including the Kasich and Rubio delegates, you are delusional. If there is a contested convention, the first step will be to stop Trump on the first ballot. Then the free for all will begin along with the horse trading and compromises. Cruz is not liked within the party. Many of the delegates are GOPe types who will move to other candidates than Trump and Cruz once Trump is stopped. I expect some sort of compromise candidate will be selected, which will destroy the party. Once you eliminate the guy who has won the most delegates, received the most votes, and won the most states--by far--any legitimacy for someone else is destroyed. The Trump voters (forget the delegates) will walk away from the GOP nominee. And if Cruz doesn't get it, his supporters will also walk away.

Chew on this.

147 posted on 04/14/2016 8:59:48 AM PDT by kabar
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What states are they putting in Cruz’s win column that Romney lost?


148 posted on 04/14/2016 9:01:06 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (A vote for Ted Cruz is a vote for Paul Ryan)
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To: kabar

After the first vote they are unaccounted for is what I meant. And there is a lot of reporting that Cruz is working on getting those delegates.

I dont think they all will back Cruz. But to say that the GOPe hates Cruz is just as valid as saying the GOPe hates Trump. So therefore who do they hate more. I believe they hate Trump more.

I dont think at this point the GOPe believe any establishment candidate could win. And who would be willing to lose guaranteed. That would be a death wish for any ones career. And that is what it is for the GOPe a career.

We will have to disagree with who will get the votes though.


149 posted on 04/14/2016 9:13:08 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz get NO Independent vote, Trump rocks with I’s, this headline makes no sense. Cruz would be a disaster against Hillary.


150 posted on 04/14/2016 9:14:00 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: jimpick

The GOPe would rather lose to Hillary than give up control of the party. They have done it time and again.


151 posted on 04/14/2016 9:28:25 AM PDT by kabar
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To: jimpick
With Trumps negatives he is not going to get elected without the Cruz vote.

That's complete garbage. Practically no one supports cruz to the extent they would not vote for Trump except the rabid gopE. Trump will get crossover and minority votes from across the spectrum because, dispute what the uniparty tells you, there still are many Americans that love America. Trumps negatives are no different then they are for any pro American candidate. My point is, I don't give a crap who you vote for, we don't need you.
152 posted on 04/14/2016 10:04:24 AM PDT by JoSixChip (Cruz <- sleaze; Clinton <- criminal; Trump <- write-in)
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To: JoSixChip

Um no. Trump is running very negative with women. Like 70% have a negative view of him. That is not just the dems but Republicans as well.

Poll after poll shows how much he is disliked. This article shows it. You are just not open to what is really going on. It shows when you post comments that state people with a opposing view are POS, idiots, and insane and whatever else you you feel like saying.

Like it or not your negativity and your candidates turn people off.


153 posted on 04/14/2016 10:26:03 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: kabar

The elite GOP would lose to Hildabeast sure. But most people below the few at the top I believe would still vote for the candidate on the GOP side be it Trump or Cruz. Lets face it most GOP and dem voters just are not informed enough to know GOPe from just GOP. And most voters are pissed at the leadership right now.


154 posted on 04/14/2016 10:29:36 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: jimpick

They can’t vote for Trump or Cruz if neither is the nominee.


155 posted on 04/14/2016 10:33:32 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

At this point I dont believe the GOPe can stop either one from being the nominee.


156 posted on 04/14/2016 10:40:39 AM PDT by jimpick
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s not over til the fat lady sings. Trump can still get to 1237 or so close that he’ll easily sway that many unaffiliated delegates on the first ballot.

So far as Mormons supporting Cruz in Utah. I think they’ve been told that that is the only alternative for a republican who is also a Mormon. I was seriously not surprised by the Cruz win in that state. Nor am I surprised that Trump was so thoroughly demonized that Clinton appears better to them than does Trump. If Trump wins the nomination outright, then be prepared for a huge shift in attacks on him from the media. They’ll clean up his image as quickly as they killed it.

However, still believe the key to power after the first ballot will be the rules committee now being selected with 2 delegates from each state and territory. This 112 member committee will determine the presidency beyond the first ballot.


157 posted on 04/18/2016 10:57:58 AM PDT by xzins ( Free Republic Gives YOU a voice heard around the globe. Support the Freepathon!)
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