Posted on 04/13/2016 9:04:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The conventional wisdom is that though Ted Cruz can excite the conservative-activist base of the Republican party, he can’t beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. But the recent head-to-head polling tells a different story. Unless your name is George W. Bush, it’s tough to win 270 electoral votes without winning the popular vote. And Cruz is hanging in there against the Democratic front-runner. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 46.4 percent and Cruz at 43.9 percent; the most recent McClatchy-Marist survey has it a tie. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, hasn’t led Clinton in any national poll since mid February, and trails her by 10.6 points in the RCP average. Democrats will contend the Texas senator is unlikeable, and scoff that about 53 percent of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz . . . a charge that would carry more weight if 54 percent of adults didn’t have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Cruz and his campaign have openly discussed a general-election strategy focused upon mobilizing conservative voters who haven’t turned out in recent cycles, and de-emphasizing an appeal to swing voters. Quite a few political scientists, pollsters, and analysts are skeptical that the approach can win, but what if 2016 comes down to Hillary Clinton, unloved by the Sanders-backing progressive base and distrusted by independents, against Cruz and an energized GOP base? As NR reported back in January, “Cruz heads the most data-driven campaign in the GOP race, employing cutting-edge technology to profile, target, and turn out supporters. Statistical awareness permeates the culture of the operation from the candidate to his most junior aides.” Based on the Cruz campaign’s deft maneuvering in the delegate chase, there’s some reason to believe the Texas senator’s claims that he can win by focusing on the little details and mobilizing previously ignored voters.
Trump also contends he’ll bring out new voters, winning over blue-collar independents and the old Reagan Democrats. His fans have argued that he would put a lot of traditionally Democratic states, such as New York and Michigan, back in play. But so far, there’s little evidence to back up that claim; Trump trails Clinton in his home state of New York by 16 to 29 points. In the three polls in Michigan in March, Trump trailed by double digits. (Unsurprisingly, Cruz polls badly in these states, too.) Florida is one of the few states where Trump is running better against Clinton than Cruz is. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead over Clinton in about half the recent polls there, while Clinton nurses a small but steady lead over Cruz. (For what it’s worth, the latest CNN poll has Cruz ahead of her by one point in Florida.)
Cruz is running surprisingly well in Ohio. The most recent NBC News/Marist poll puts Cruz ahead of Clinton by two points there, while Trump trails her by six. Quinnipiac, the only recent poll of the Buckeye State to show Trump leading Clinton, has Cruz ahead of her by three and Trump up by two. RELATED: Ted Cruz Is Surging by Design Pennsylvania is one of those states that seems to tease the GOP every election cycle, only to vote for the Democratic nominee by a comfortable margin. Winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would provide a big boost to any Republican nominee, forcing the Democrats to pick off votes on less-friendly terrain. The good news for Trump is that the most recent poll, by Fox News, has him tied in Pennsylvania. But the four preceding polls of the state showed him trailing Clinton by anywhere from three to 13 points. Fox News didn’t ask about a Cruz–Clinton matchup, but Quinnipiac has Cruz and Clinton tied in Pennsylvania, while Clinton is ahead of Trump by three.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of those potential swing states where Republicans have struggled to compete in recent presidential cycles. Even the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012 only reduced Obama’s margin of victory from 14 points to seven. But Cruz is running surprisingly close there; the Emerson poll puts Clinton ahead of him by three points and the Marquette University survey has them tied. The two polls put Trump behind Clinton by ten points. One of the biggest contrasts between the GOP candidates comes in Iowa. NBC News and PPP have Clinton ahead of Tump by eight points and two points respectively. The same polls put Cruz ahead of Clinton by four points and three points. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments for nominating Cruz over Trump is that it would lock up states Republicans should never have had to worry about in the first place. The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.
A 28-point lead for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton in Utah is not particularly surprising — but it is noteworthy given that Clinton actually leads Trump by two in the latest poll of this conservative stronghold, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Democrats have dreamed of turning Arizona into a swing state for years; the Merrill poll found Clinton tied with Trump there. The same poll showed Cruz leading Clinton by six points. In Mississippi, a Mason-Dixon poll put Trump ahead of Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. The same poll put Cruz ahead of her, 51 percent to 40 percent. If Cruz’s strategy was such a sure loser, so devoid of appeal to anyone outside the conservative base, we might expect his head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton to be as bad as Trump’s. But in state after state, Cruz runs better than Trump against the likely Democratic nominee. Perhaps this reflects Clinton’s persistently high disapproval numbers, or maybe Trump’s smash-mouth braggadocio makes Cruz look comparably warm and fuzzy. Either way, at this point, Cruz appears to have a legitimate shot against Clinton — not a great shot, but a shot. The same cannot be said of Trump. You do the math.
But what about Idaho?
“In other words, I consider you and all cruz supporters to be POS and not worth the time it took me to write this posts.”
Well, I hope you won’t mind if this “POS” still votes for Mr. Trump if he is our nominee.
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“Please enjoy our forum, but also please remember to use common courtesy when posting and refrain from posting personal attacks, profanity, vulgarity,...”
This is just the kind of post that makes me want to run right out and vote for Trump. All the persuasive words like lying, cheating, zero. All backed up from stellar sources with irrefutable facts. Posts like this are the solid under pinning of reasoned, fact based, logical comment and conversation. Pure intellectual stimulation.
You’re going to look awfully silly saying that as Cruz starts coming in 3rd in a string of upcoming states.
Your comment dropped this -—> </sarcasm>
So posting articles is the same as spamming? Good to know. I come here to read articles, review the comments, and sometimes add my thoughts. 2dV posts a lot of articles and many before sunrise so I get to read the news during breakfast. I am grateful.
Why do Trumpons come here? It seems they feel this is the place for their Pep rally. Sorry to spoil your party but this is a marketplace of ideas. Not all fall in line with your value system.
Bundlers aren't necessarily paid directly for their efforts, and the process is totally legal, but there can be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for the successful ones...
Obama rewards big bundlers with jobs, commissions, stimulus money, government contracts, and more
Bundling for Favors: Open the Books on Bundled Campaign Contributions
From a completely unbiased source. Now we need to know what Club for Growth in industries which serve foreign producers thinks.
Romney was “electable” in 2012.
Good posting, 2DV!
A key sentence fta: The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.
It’s important to keep majorities in the House and Senate!
I see you are new here. Any registered member here is allowed to post articles that fall within the standards. It's what makes FR go.
Curious, how many have YOU posted?
Instead of worrying about 2DV, why don’t you address the issues of the articles. I know its something that trumpeters struggle with, but give it a try. Try and contribute something to the thread rather than just verbal diarrhea.
I’ve watched you harass this poster for a long time.
It’s ridiculous
interesting, it’s usually the newbies with relatively recent sign up dates that give rise to suspicions of being paid propagandists.... I’ve seen 2ndDivisionVet around for years, don’t recall seeing you.
Of course he his. This is his day job. But take heart cba, he’ll start winding down next tuesday and shut down after the 26th.
Did I attack you? But you feel you can call me vile and a POS. You just proved my point for me right there.
Once again I will say it. Because of some nasty Trump supporters I no longer can defend Trump. I posted about how It was wrong what happened in Chicago at the cancelled Trump rally. But now I believe it may have been self inflicted by some Trump supporters.
How do you think anyone will accept you view point if you attack them? You feel you can attack me because you posted for six months. News flash I dont read every post or thread here.
And you again didnt refute the original post. No wonder 2nd does not respond.
>> If it’s in Gateway Pundit or Conservative Treehouse it must be true <<
Well, what about Drudge headlines, Ann Coulter columns, the Judge Jeanne Pirro Show, the Lou Dobbs Show, the Michael Savage Show, and Breitbart? Aren’t their memes also 100% reliable?
Another poorly crafted Wile E. Coyote Trump Frustration Award entry. If Slick Teddie can’t win over Republicans how does this knucklehead think he will win one single state Mittens and Lil Paulie didn’t win? The answer is Slick Teddie can’t. If he was lucky he might avoid going under 206 ECVs but that would be a tall order.
I don’t know if he’s paid or not.... doesn’t matter to me.... but I like reading the articles he posts. There are articles that are friendly to both Cruz and Trump being posted here. Is it a big deal to you that he posts pro Cruz articles? Not everybody here is a King Trumpy Worshiper....
>>> His refusal to answer means yes <<<
Sure, and if he said “no,” it clearly would prove that he’s a liar, because everybody knows how these sneaky Cruz operatives operate. They will always try fool you, whether with their “yeses” or with their “noes.”
Doncha just love how Mr. Trump has improved our ability to use logic? Really a yoooge accomplishment, no?
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