Cruz's Poll Decline Underway? If So Last Barrier To Trump Removed

recovering-liberal.blogspot ^ | Friday, December 25, 2015 | M.Joseph Sheppard

[GonzoII]

Cruz's Poll Decline Underway? If So Last Barrier To Trump Removed

The graph tells the tale. One by one the anti-Trump candidates rise, helped in no small part by a desperate media and establishment, and one by one they fall.

The Fiorina, Carson, Walker, Kasich, Bush, Rubio "surges" are noticeable, but like shooting stars are very brief. The exception being Ben Carson who, alone after Trump took the lead on July 20th, actually put his nose in front for three days. But in some sort of cosmic schadenfreude Carson's decline has been spectacular.

After Trump rose Bush declined. In Bush's stead Walker rose. After Walker declined Carson rose spectacularly whilst Fiorina, with the media, especially Fox's Megyn Kelly giving her every advantage, rose seemingly strikingly but from 1% which made her rise look bigger than it was. 

Fiorina's decline saw Rubio's rise from a low of 5% to touching 15% and, as with all the other candidates, it has been steadily downhill from there to 11.5% These percentages are from the Real Clear Politics aggregate "Poll of Polls" so they smooth out the distortions possibly inherent in individual polls and seem the best method we currently have to gauge popular support.

None of the other candidates have risen above the seemingly impenetrable 5% barrier except Senator Cruz. Nothing could be clearer than the fact that Carson's decline, and to possibly a lesser extent Rubio's, has seen Cruz gain a polling rise almost equal to Carson's decline. This also clearly obvious in Iowa where Carson's Evangelical support has switched to Cruz.

Carson's polling height was 24.8 on November 4th on which day Cruz was on 8.8%.Today Carson is on 10% and Cruz 18.1%. But it is Cruz's current trend which is the key to whether or not Trump achieves away with the nomination by "running the board" as his team advised they look to.

A few day polling is by no means a certain indicator of future trends, but with Trump's rivals it can be safely said that once a downturn trend commences it continues on apace. The Real Clear Politics graph above shows a slight leveling off for Cruz (the black line) which reflect the 6 point drop in Cruz's polling in the last two polls;

In the Reuters Ipsos tracking poll polling Cruz's decline is more marked going from 16.2% on December 19th to 12.8% on December 24th

 In the Huffington Post Poll aggregator the two latest polls show a 5 point drop for Cruz;

And in the Iowa caucus polling Cruz drops a huge 9 points.

These moves may be temporary or may mark a plateau for Cruz who, on current polling stands a good chance in the Iowa caucus voting. But if these polls do, as with all the preceding candidates, mark a steady decline in Cruz's support then the road is open for Trump to simply destroy the opposition from Iowa right through to Florida and to the nomination.

[richardtavor]

The author doesn’t read graphs very well either. The only two similarities that track or Trump and Cruz’s, which track, and the rest, which also track. So, I would conclude that Cruz and Trump will mirror each other until one of them falls as well...Obvious that the author wanted to plant a result in heads - obvious trick like Fox’s Frank Luntz, who desperately wanted Bush to win.

[Flick Lives]

But it is Cruz’s current trend which is the key to whether or not Trump achieves away with the nomination by “running the board” as his team advised they look to.

---

A tortured sentence, this is.

[TexasFreeper2009]

I heard Huck and Rubio with both blasting Cruz with negative ads in Iowa.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Cruz’s support has held steady in the high teens since the end of November.

One outlier poll the Quinnipiac Poll was so far off it distorted the graph for the entire month and made it look like Cruz’s support kept going up all through December, when it didn’t. Thus now that more polls are coming out some might conclude that Cruz has peaked and is now slipping when it fact Cruz has held steady the entire month and it’s just that Quinnipiac is an outlier.

[mconley22]

Anytime that you try to mix polls of Adults, Registered Voters, and Likely Voters, you are asking for trouble. Because of name recognition, “Adult” polls will always favor Trump because of his celebrity that extends beyond the world of politics. If you want to show a positive trend for Trump vs. Cruz, then you pick the most reent Reuters/IPSOS poll of “Adults,” as was done in this case.

The only way “trends” are meaningful is if they have a common basis and the differences are statistically significant. There is no downward trend in Cruz’s numbers, only another example of “lying with statistics” by one of his devoted followers. The analysis that you posted here is a huge FAIL.

[X-spurt]

It looks as if the writer is unable to see the graph.

Cruz has been in a gradual planned incline, not at all unlike his run for the Senate.

Its called momentum.

Be prepared to say, “Good morning Mr. President Cruz”.

[X-spurt]

all the disappointed and anti-Trump players in the Republican Party....will be equally disappointed and anti-Cruz

If Trump were to act nasty about it, your assumption could be correct, but I think there has been a private agreement between Trump and Cruz all long, that we are not privy to that will not have Trump being harsh against Cruz, or vice versa.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Cruz surged in November and went from high single digits to high teens.

The surge was about 10 points and it all came from Carson’s lost supporters.

The race has been remarkably stable through December with Trump hovering in the high 30’s and Cruz hovering in the high teens, and no one else with even a pulse.

Trump is basically ahead by about 20 nationally and has been for nearly a month.

[Theo]

Good analysis.

[Jim Noble]

I think Cruz wins Iowa.

The media rejoicing will last eight days - it will be positively Biblical, jubilee-type rejoicing.

Then Trump blows off the doors in NH and South Carolina. It will be over by March 15.

[GonzoII]

"I heard Huck and Rubio with both blasting Cruz with negative ads in Iowa."

What was strange about Huck is that he praised Trump and then the ads began IIRC...

[BobL]

Trump is actually more steady at 40% now, but what seems to keep happening is that the anti-Trump people find the next candidate of the day, puff him/her up, and then learn a bit more.

For Walker, he twisted himself into a pretzel over immigration (he’s probably still practicing in front of a mirror to try to come up with a ‘deep-felt’ position).

For Carla, once her face was pointed out, it was over. Not to mention her hatred towards men.

For Carson, we learned his childhood was ‘a bit strange’ and that he was totally unprepared for the big leagues.

For Rubio, we just needed to get past the smile and life story, and back to remembering just what he was doing to us in the summer of 2013.

For Cruz, he is the best non-Trump candidate, but still has a few loose ends that are hard to bundle up into a solid-conservative candidate.

Trumps holds up because his negatives were known and accepted (by his supporters) nearly from Day 1.

[mconley22]

Huckster has always been a sore loser. He teamed up with McCain to make some very dishonest smears against Romney, when it became obvious that Huckabee had no shot at the nomination. I was not a fan of Romney, but IMO, he would have made a much better president that McCain.

Huckabee is just taking a cheap shot at the Iowa Evangelicals for not jumping onto his sputtering bandwagon.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Yeah but honestly, the GOP-E would likely prefer Cruz over Trump, if they have to pick between the two, since Cruz is at least a sitting politician and thus part of the overall political establishment. Better the devil you know than the one you don’t.

[parksstp]

Yeah, um sure.

Let’s just forget that given Cruz’s superior ground organization in the other states including SC and most of the SEC Primary States, that $5 Million won’t drop into these as oodles of donations pour in after his Iowa Victory.

Also, let’s forget the remaining debates that take place in February betweeen IA/NH and NH/Sc where the stage will be reduced to no more than 4 or 5 individuals meaning Trump will be forced to speak more on substantive issues, and there’s no guarantee he’ll have Jeb Bush remaining in the race to kick him around for free points. With even more speaking time, Cruz will outshine in these debates.

Cruz wins IA. Money pours in. He solidifies with the debates. Finishes no worse than 2nd in NH with 20% of the vote, then heads to SC where he wins and begins a romp through the SEC Primary States.

Then the Trumpsters will have to resort back to Cruz birtherism. For now, Trump is secretly pumping money into Huckabee’s campaign.

[Jim Noble]

that $5 Million won’t drop into these as oodles of donations pour in

Let me get this out of the way: Ted Cruz would make a fine President, and if he somehow happened to get nominated I would gladly vote for him.

But, I do not believe he could be elected, under any circumstances, so I don't support the idea of nominating him.

OK, that said - you Cruz guys crack me up with the "donations pouring in". You all have been posting about his fundraising for MONTHS.

Ask Majority Leader Cantor how that works. Oh, wait...

For that matter, ask the guy who has spent $34 million THIS YEAR and is at 3%.

Cruz will get the nomination IF the Republican primary voters believe a) he can beat Clinton, and b) would restore American greatness.

So far (except for the Iowa religious nutfest), it's no sale.

[parksstp]

So you’re not going to make a distinction on the SOURCE of funds?

Cantor and Jebbers money comes mainly from the Establishment and Big Donors. The vast bulk of Cruz’s funds have come from the grassroots, which is where the $5M would come from, NOT the Establishment donors, although Mercer might throw in a few mil.

What makes you think Cruz can’t beat Hillary? He’s “too conservative”? That’s a bunch of bullcrap. You wanna see Goldwater II, just nominate Trump. Trump will lose every battleground state that matters.

Cruz will win every state Romney won including by a better margin in NC than Romney managed.

Cruz meanwhile has EXCELLENT changes to win the following battlegrounds:

Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
Wisconsin (10)

Cruz absolutely has a better chance of performing better than Trump against Hillary in:

Florida (29) (Cruz would win the I-4 Corridor that McCain/Romney lost which would tilt the State back to the GOP)

That’s 276 EV’s. Enough to win the Presidency.

OH, PA, MI, NH are tough for any GOP candidate but they could be one also.

I also see OR up for play along with Maine’s CD 2 EV.

[moehoward]

"The surge was about 10 points and it all came from Carson’s lost supporters."

Roger that. Nowhere else to siphon from now except Trump. It's highly debatable how much Trump support would go his way even if Trump did drop out.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well Iowa was the only state Cruz was ever going to have a chance at. He still may win Iowa but Trump is going to run the rest of the table. Its just getting too close to voting for anybody to catch Trump.

[CatherineofAragon]

Good observations.

Wait until some of the also-rans have dropped out and just a few of them are left on the debate stage. Trump will be forced to do more than bloviate, make faces, and smack his mouth. The contrast with Cruz will be even more stark.