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Cruz's Poll Decline Underway? If So Last Barrier To Trump Removed
recovering-liberal.blogspot ^ | Friday, December 25, 2015 | M.Joseph Sheppard

Posted on 12/26/2015 1:31:59 AM PST by GonzoII

Cruz's Poll Decline Underway? If So Last Barrier To Trump Removed

The graph tells the tale. One by one the anti-Trump candidates rise, helped in no small part by a desperate media and establishment, and one by one they fall.



The Fiorina, Carson, Walker, Kasich, Bush, Rubio "surges" are noticeable, but like shooting stars are very brief. The exception being Ben Carson who, alone after Trump took the lead on July 20th, actually put his nose in front for three days. But in some sort of cosmic schadenfreude Carson's decline has been spectacular.

After Trump rose Bush declined. In Bush's stead Walker rose. After Walker declined Carson rose spectacularly whilst Fiorina, with the media, especially Fox's Megyn Kelly giving her every advantage, rose seemingly strikingly but from 1% which made her rise look bigger than it was. 

Fiorina's decline saw Rubio's rise from a low of 5% to touching 15% and, as with all the other candidates, it has been steadily downhill from there to 11.5% These percentages are from the Real Clear Politics aggregate "Poll of Polls" so they smooth out the distortions possibly inherent in individual polls and seem the best method we currently have to gauge popular support.

None of the other candidates have risen above the seemingly impenetrable 5% barrier except Senator Cruz. Nothing could be clearer than the fact that Carson's decline, and to possibly a lesser extent Rubio's, has seen Cruz gain a polling rise almost equal to Carson's decline. This also clearly obvious in Iowa where Carson's Evangelical support has switched to Cruz.

Carson's polling height was 24.8 on November 4th on which day Cruz was on 8.8%.Today Carson is on 10% and Cruz 18.1%. But it is Cruz's current trend which is the key to whether or not Trump achieves away with the nomination by "running the board" as his team advised they look to.

A few day polling is by no means a certain indicator of future trends, but with Trump's rivals it can be safely said that once a downturn trend commences it continues on apace. The Real Clear Politics graph above shows a slight leveling off for Cruz (the black line) which reflect the 6 point drop in Cruz's polling in the last two polls;



In the Reuters Ipsos tracking poll polling Cruz's decline is more marked going from 16.2% on December 19th to 12.8% on December 24th




 In the Huffington Post Poll aggregator the two latest polls show a 5 point drop for Cruz;



And in the Iowa caucus polling Cruz drops a huge 9 points.


These moves may be temporary or may mark a plateau for Cruz who, on current polling stands a good chance in the Iowa caucus voting. But if these polls do, as with all the preceding candidates, mark a steady decline in Cruz's support then the road is open for Trump to simply destroy the opposition from Iowa right through to Florida and to the nomination.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: cruz; cruzowned; peaked; polls; trump; trumpies; trumpnotowned
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The Author made a mistake calling the Reuters 5-day tracking poll where Ted dropped about 4 points, the "Reuters/Ipsos" poll. In the new Reuters/Ipsos Poll Cruz dropped 1% confirming the negative trend of the other polls indicated in the article. Looks like Ted may have peaked though clearly giving Trump a run for his money in Iowa.

1 posted on 12/26/2015 1:32:00 AM PST by GonzoII
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To: GonzoII

I must have missed that whole Bush rising in the polls thing.


2 posted on 12/26/2015 1:49:37 AM PST by pallis
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To: GonzoII

If you go to the scenario that Cruz tops Trump by one or two points in Iowa....it opens up the discussion of what happens over the next four weeks after that.

To be honest, I think all the disappointed and anti-Trump players in the Republican Party....will be equally disappointed and anti-Cruz...so it’s hard to predict how this would play out.


3 posted on 12/26/2015 1:50:28 AM PST by pepsionice
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To: pepsionice
"anti-Trump players in the Republican Party....will be equally disappointed and anti-Cruz"

As it is right now I don't think they see much hope.

4 posted on 12/26/2015 1:58:34 AM PST by GonzoII ("If the new crime be, to believe in God, let us all be criminals" -Sheen)
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To: GonzoII

Wow, this is astoundingly bad. Not the results, the reporting.

Look at the RCP polls, and notice that only the top two polls in the table are included, leaving out the other six polls included in that time frame, from which we could show by picking two that Cruz rose, fell, or stayed the same.

Of course, comparing two polls and trying to draw a trend is just dumb. Interestingly, if we compare the results of each individual poll to the previous data (for example CNN/ORC 11/27 - 12/1 vs CNN/ORC 12/17 - 12/21), all of them show Cruz going up.

The raw data:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html#polls


5 posted on 12/26/2015 2:15:54 AM PST by Darth Reardon (Is it any wonder I'm not the president?)
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To: GonzoII

Just by eyeballing it, the top graph shows no break in Cruz’s uptrend from November to now.


6 posted on 12/26/2015 2:31:53 AM PST by Vision Thing
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To: GonzoII

LMAO.


7 posted on 12/26/2015 2:47:35 AM PST by libbylu
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To: pallis

Bush was ahead in July then started dropping


8 posted on 12/26/2015 2:49:40 AM PST by 4rcane
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To: GonzoII

This article is the result of a biased reporter misunderstanding biased polls. The result is a comically reversed reality distortion field.


9 posted on 12/26/2015 2:52:12 AM PST by Praxeologue ( ')
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To: GonzoII

The only poll that matters is the vote count. Everything until then is media hype.


10 posted on 12/26/2015 3:10:11 AM PST by Soul of the South (Tomorrow is gone. Today will be what we make of it.)
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To: LS

Ping.


11 posted on 12/26/2015 3:21:19 AM PST by GonzoII ("If the new crime be, to believe in God, let us all be criminals" -Sheen)
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To: All

Latest Polls

Pollster Dates Pop. Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Christie Fiorina Rand Paul Huckabee Kasich Santorum Graham Pataki Gilmore Jindal Perry Walker Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters 12/19 - 12/23 626 A 39 13 9 10 7 3 2 2 3 2 3 - 0 0 - - - 6
CNN 12/17 - 12/21 438 RV 39 18 10 10 3 5 1 4 2 2 0 1 0 0 - - - 2
Emerson College Polling Society 12/17 - 12/20 415 LV 36 21 13 7 6 6 5 1 1 3 - 0 - - - - - 1
Quinnipiac 12/16 - 12/20 508 RV 28 24 12 10 4 6 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 - - - 8
FOX 12/16 - 12/17 402 LV 39 18 11 9 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 - - - 6
Morning Consult 12/16 - 12/17 861 RV 36 11 9 12 7 2 2 3 - - - - - - - - - 11
PPP (D) 12/16 - 12/17 532 LV 34 18 13 6 7 5 4 2 4 2 1 1 0 0 - - - 2
Ipsos/Reuters 12/12 - 12/16 730 A 36 14 10 11 7 3 3 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 - - - 6
Morning Consult 12/11 - 12/15 1,530 RV 40 9 7 10 7 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 - - - - 11
ABC/Post 12/10 - 12/13 362 RV 38 15 12 12 5 4 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 - - - - 6
Monmouth University 12/10 - 12/13 385 RV 41 14 10 9 3 2 2 2 2 3 0 1 1 0 - - - 8
NBC/WSJ 12/6 - 12/9 400 LV 27 22 15 11 7 3 5 2 3 2 - - - - - - - 3
Ipsos/Reuters 12/5 - 12/9 494 A 37 11 12 13 5 4 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 - - - 6

12 posted on 12/26/2015 3:33:02 AM PST by GonzoII ("If the new crime be, to believe in God, let us all be criminals" -Sheen)
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To: Darth Reardon
Any poll, including the "Cruz surges" polls, depend on the baseline, you're right. But what everyone has done is to try and pick up the trend. I have for some time thought this season the correct trend indicator---for better or worse---was PPP. (Ever polling season, it appears one polling company seems more tuned in---in the late 90s it was Zogby, then for one cycle before Scott Rasmussen left, it was Rasmussen. I think in 2006 it was Mason-Dixon as I recall).

When I saw the PPP IA poll, I thought it (more than Reuters, signaled the high point for Cruz). We'll see.

13 posted on 12/26/2015 3:35:58 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: GonzoII
If you recall, when all the DNR IA poll hoopla started, I said "wait for PPP IA." When that came out a few days later I said I thought Cruz had peaked in IA.

Still too soon, but I think Reuters is confirming nationally what PPP reflected in IA.

14 posted on 12/26/2015 3:39:00 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: pallis

It happened, it’s just that it was a stealth operation. He used one of Captain Kirk’s cloaking devices. His supporters were also cloaked.


15 posted on 12/26/2015 3:51:25 AM PST by redfreedom (Voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil.)
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To: Soul of the South
Everything until then is media hype.

Yup its all about perception with the neo-Alinskyites.
16 posted on 12/26/2015 3:57:33 AM PST by cripplecreek (Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.)
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To: GonzoII

Let’s forget which line represents which candidate.

I’m looking at this graph and the author has focused on the black line. The author claims that because the black line “...shows a slight leveling off...”, this indicates something significant. All I see is a line doing something it has previously done numerous times.

Where was this magnificent prognosticating author for all the *previous* flat portions of this same black line in this very same graph? Heck, I even see some very clear drops that could fairly be described as *plummets* for this same black line...

Folks always wonder why brain-dead, low-info voters seem to mindlessly vote like the TV tells them to vote. Well, take a look at this report. It’s what I would call a “clue”!


17 posted on 12/26/2015 4:03:52 AM PST by jaydee770
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To: GonzoII

Leadership on offense v offensive leadership. I’m ready of Hillaryous.


18 posted on 12/26/2015 4:16:21 AM PST by PGalt
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To: GonzoII
Cruz will get a boost each time he appears next to Trump in a debate, which will be every debate from here on in.

From a strategic perspective, Trump s threats to boycott debates make sense.

When voter first and second choices are combined, Cruz has a slim lead. As candidates drop out, Cruz gains. Trump s support nationally has been flat for five months, oscillating between 30-40 percent, and he has the highest negatives of all the candidates.

19 posted on 12/26/2015 4:23:57 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: redfreedom
He used one of Captain Kirk’s cloaking devices.

The cloaking device was owned by the Romulans.
20 posted on 12/26/2015 4:28:14 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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