Trump Fans Should Pay Attention to and Prepare for What’s Coming Because it’s Going to Get VERY Ugly

I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.

Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.

You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew her when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.

Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.

No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.

A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.

Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.

Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.

Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.

Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?

As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.

And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.

Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.

Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light? Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.

I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.

Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.

No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.

The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.

While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.

If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.

Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.

My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.

Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.

Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.

America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.

Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.

Excellent analysis. “What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them.”

Good advice. I worked on local GOP campaigns two years ago and it is time I renew contacts in a friendly way and prepare them for Trump.

Here’s the thing: if the people want Trump and the election machine keeps them from the leader they want, the machine can lose its power afterward. If small local party bosses bring him down, it shows us how entrenched this machine is. The people and only the people wanted R Reagan, and our country still worked back then. Let’s die (I hope figuratively) trying, then we need to burn down the corrupt system.

The internet is a “pull” medium. You have to go looking for it.
TV is a “push” medium. You turn it on and they push the content out to you whether you are watching ou not.

If you are motivated enough to go to the internet to find Trump content, you are likely already predisposed to consider him.

I guess that’s why there is no paid advertising on the Internet.

The left stream media won’t do that because Trump is too good for their ratings.

If the GOPe tries to buy all the add space or otherwise treat him “unfairly” he will run as a 3rd party. Sore loser laws in key states would make it impossible for him to win, but he could be on the ballot in more than enough to be a spoiler. The GOPe knows it, and that’s why they are so desperate for him to promise to support the nominee. And that’s why he’s smart not to do so.

“A guy like trump does not have to play by GOP rules. He has more F-You money than the entirety of the GOP combined.”

I had a boss who was a multi-millionaire. One Monday, I told him, “I just flew back from Palm Beach. You should’ve seen the yachts parked out in the marinas there. They looked like scary sleek white Star Destroyers from Star Wars.”

He just smiled at me and said, “I know you think I’m rich, but there’s rich and then there are those guys down in Palm Beach who are ‘F-You rich’. They want to insult you with how rich they are.”

I’m more than certain that one of those yachts belonged to Trump.

But if Trump can invest some of his billions into sticking it to the gop-e, all I can say is, “All hail the F-you rich!”

This is why Trump selects Ted Cruz as a running mate. Cruz has been building a 50 state machine for years and has the active infrastructure in place right now. Donald simply needs to “acquire” it in the form of getting Ted Cruz in the White House.

By the author’s ‘conclusions’ I meant the concept of what he was driving at, which I didn’t agree with. And the main reason I disagree is because the RNC/GOPe loathes Trump, as does the boys and girls at FOX, and probably a host of special big $$$ interests.

For that reason I just don’t think that the local GOP folks would listen to an outsider tell them why the guy the RNC despises would be their man. Even if someone like myself spoke convincingly, would they buck the wishes of the RNC? Maybe, but unlikely I would think.

It just seems there would be a path of lesser resistance, like jumping on board an already existing infrastructure even though it is probably less extensive or sophisticated.

On the other hand I am no political wizard; I don’t have the experience this author has in national campaigns or politics in general. I don’t know, but you sound like you’ve been around the political block (so to speak) a few times yourself.

For the record, I’m open to whatever will get us our country back to where we need to be.

Unaltered sure. But what if there is no ad time left to sell? I don't think there are any laws forcing a rationing of the available ad time. There are regulations for how much content time there must be each hour, so the available ad time is not infinite.

-PJ

Exactly. Trump is literally the only person in the country who can fight this battle against the Establishment with his FU money and his street fight attitude.

“sometimes your worst self is your best self”

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