Posted on 10/01/2014 9:51:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Edited on 10/02/2014 12:23:49 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
The Ebola outbreak could skyrocket to between 550,000 cases and 1.4 million cases by 2015 if there is no large-scale intervention, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC warns the epidemic in West Africa could drag on for years if a response isn
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.marketwatch.com ...
The big question is how many in the USA with Obammy’s open borders?
ping
And every one of them who can possibly get on a plane and come to the US to get treatment will be making the effort.
Really should take away some peoples calculators..
Give the a abacus....
Of the 1.4 million who contract it along with a 90% fatality rate, 1.26 million will die.
The rate will be more like 60%...I think...which is the norm..
The 90% rate was a one off...but they use it as the “as high as_____” rate for media purposes..
As to the numbers.....they are too high, too fast...IMO
They are calculating it like a nuclear fission reaction. It does not work that way.
Is this just in Texas or throughout the country?
Okay...If the real number is 60% then the out of the 1.4 million only 840,000 will die.
Another thing...
When someone gives you a forecast with as big a deviation between the high and low as this one is...they are sheeting in the wind...and really have no idea..
“The Ebola outbreak could skyrocket to between 550,000 cases and 1.4 million cases by 2015”
It all depends on how well people decide to follow the rules of quarantine.
The outbreak, launched by hussein, is currently in Texas. He's using it as prototype here before he widens the scope to other Conservative states. As I see it, his strategy is first to destroy the Texas economy and then kill untold numbers of Christians here. Then hussein will escalate Ebola to other states such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi that are anti-DemonRAT.
What are your thoughts of the number of cases in a month or three?
I think you can assume that most will not..
They tried to quarantine the slum in Monrovia...approximately 50K people....they had to lift it because of the violence..
One think I noted while looking at the map. The state of Liberia has little population other than Monrovia...very few villages of any size other than the capital.
It would be easy to quarantine it, if one needed to.The geography makes it doable....just sayin..
I would make three observations. African healthcare is marginally effective. I’ve watched the video clips of what they do and offer. Limited IV usage...limited food....limited care....limited drugs. If you kept a guy hydrated, with some liquid food, and pumped up on drugs for a week....I think you could get the survival rate up to around forty-to-fifty percent.
Second, unless something changes...I agree with the 1.4 million cases by January. But why stop with January 2015? We could imagine by January of 2020 that sixty million residents of central Africa will pass away. The marginal infrastructure that exists today? It’ll spiral out of control.
Third, mass hysteria is just a step away. Toss in CNN, Fox News and MSNBC doing live intereviews outside of some hospital in Dallas, and people will start to freak out. They can’t handle panic and stress like this.
Yah know, I took a stab at it prior to the situation going out of control. It exceeded those estimates a few weeks ago. Now that the horses are out of the barn, there is no way of forecasting it, unless you are expert at the Chaos Theory.
I suppose if one had all the inputs, and real time data, you might be able to forecast the peak perhaps..but factoring in social conditions, law enforcement effectiveness, population controls and the willingness to listen to authorities, and no real time data,.............
It’s impossible right now to say..guess, or do a off the wall speculation.
Based on the rates we are getting now, I don’t see how they came to their numbers. They must be expecting a mathematical doubling for each time period they used, to get to that, and looking at the geography, the fact that there were about 4 million people in 2010, many being in Monrovia or vicinity (Liberia being the worst), I think it possible to get to the CDC numbers by the end of 2015 if it does not peak sooner.
But I think that is what we in the US are trying to prevent, and I think that it’s possible to put a dent in it. But they need a lot of help and I think we should give it to them.
In my view, (staying on Monrovia), the city could be sectored off....taking the remaining clean sectors, and grouping them together, while putting in a bunch of investigators to chase down any infected and quarantine their contacts..
This leaves you with the slums and poorer area where most of this is taking place. These people have to get out to find food and water, etc..this is how they are being infected. So the answer there in intensive aid, distributed to local distribution areas near the residences or shanty’s, in this case.
Once you get that going, and gain some trust with the locals, you can do the same thing with medical investigators and try to stop the spreading..
But you have to build some infrastructure to do this and the city is a mess, I am sure..
It will take several months, perhaps a year, but I really think it can be done.
We in the US have been dealing with various outbreaks of nasty microbes for most of out history. Most of todays generations don’t know much about that. They don’t have knowledge of Cholera, or the Spanish flu that killed 10-20 % of those infected and ended up killing about 6% of the global population. It did not attack the old or the very young, it hit the people in their prime.
All this past experience has built quite a knowledge base and we can use it in Africa. I think we must...
If total panic ensues, and refugees begin moving across borders, it’s not just Africa in danger.
Thankfully, ebola while deadly, is a fairly simple and well understood disease. it is resistant to major mutations (which complicated the Spanish flu) and that gives you some sense of how to deal with it. So drugs and treatments designed today will be expected to work tomorrow. You also know the elements of progression and it’s almost always the same. So it’s not something that you can’t fight, or contain. But you have to have some degree of assistance from the people there, or you can’t help them.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
I’m missing something here. Liberia closed its borders back on July 28. All the countries around Liberia have closed their borders, Guinea on Aug 9 And Ivory Coast on Aug 23. The WHO is asking for enormous sums of money to combat the problem in theatre and we’ve sent troops to set up and staff quarantine areas. So why is the WHO saying that banning flights would make the outbreak “harder to deal with”? Isn’t containment the objective?
You are correct. A lot of this is about money, aid packages...etc.
They do the same with global warming scares..
This is not to demean or make the issue seems smaller then it is, but the latest numbers, are these...
(Updated September 29, 2014)
•Total Case Count: 6574
•Total Deaths: 3091
•Laboratory Confirmed Cases: 3626
How we get from here to 1.4m by January is a puzzle I cannot decipher..But it is what it is..
As to the transport issue. They are scared to death (pun) that transport would at some point be interrupted. Common sense tells you that simply the threat of this would cause any volunteers, aid agencys and their related funding to evaporate because the workers may not be able to come back when they want to. Not to mention the WHO people and the CDC would have to hire private aircraft and get special permits to fly in or out..causing a logistics issue.
So it’s all related....
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