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Intrade presidential election markets -- Obama ahead even in the popular vote?
vanity | October 30, 2012 | me

Posted on 10/30/2012 2:36:05 PM PDT by reaganaut1

It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Politics
KEYWORDS: intrade
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade investors are primarily foreigners, if I’m not mistaken. Thus, these statistics represent naive European opinions. Many Intrade investors are apparently heading for a rude awakening come next Tuesday. They must be listening to the LSM propaganda polls...


21 posted on 10/30/2012 2:56:28 PM PDT by sargon
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To: TexasGunLover

In many elections there are situations where all of the available candidates take morally unacceptable positions on one or more of the non-negotiable issues.

In such situations, a citizen is called upon to make tough choices. In those cases, citizens must vote in the way that will most limit the harm that would be done by the available candidates.

Imagine a situation wherein one candidate has a record of fighting for unrestricted access to abortion, and the other candidate would only consider allowing abortion in the cases of rape or incest.

This is simply an example of a situation where all of the available candidates take a morally unacceptable position, but one will most limit the harm that would be done.

So!...You have a RESPONSIBILITY TO VOTE FOR THE ONE WHO WOULD DO THE LEAST HARM, lest the other clown DOES MORE HARM!


22 posted on 10/30/2012 3:01:12 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: reaganaut1

Most American voters don’t even know Intrade exists.


23 posted on 10/30/2012 3:04:58 PM PDT by rewrite (It ain't what You are, it's what You're about that makes a difference in the world.)
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To: TexasGunLover
Forget the two people who are are chosen choices. I will be voting for Romney because:

1. I don't want anymore Supreme Court appointments that are filled with communists who will destroy our constitution. It is estimated that 2 vacancies will occur. Kiss your guns and the rest of your rights good-by if Obama appoints the next 2.

2. I want a loyal American, not someone who hates America and is loyal to God only knows who or what, to be able to defend our country militarily, and assure our very survival.

Not really a hard choice. IMHO, if someone who could vote, doesn't vote for Romney, it is same as a vote for Obama. In other words, you are voting communist.

24 posted on 10/30/2012 3:04:58 PM PDT by A. Patriot (Re-electing Obama is like the Titanic backing up to hit the iceberg again.)
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To: reaganaut1

Most American voters don’t even know Intrade exists.


25 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:01 PM PDT by rewrite (It ain't what You are, it's what You're about that makes a difference in the world.)
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To: TexasGunLover

You need to apply game theory here, and take into account the actions of all other players, not just you.

If you actually live in TX, then you are correct. If you live in a swing state, then not voting for Romney would be a vote by default for Obama.


26 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:08 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: reaganaut1
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

27 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:41 PM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: TexasGunLover
I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

Gee, are they having a sale on Kool Aid where you live? Or are you someone who secretly hopes to see our Great Republic DESTROYED, which (unless you have not noticed???) is what Dear Leader has been trying to do for the past 4 years and would continue in his efforts if reelected?

And I thought most Texans (at least those who PRETEND to be Conservatives) were Patriots who loved their country and would do anything to protect and defend it?

Apparently, there are exceptions as shown by your delusional rant!

28 posted on 10/30/2012 3:09:45 PM PDT by neveralib
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To: TexasGunLover
In our form of election system, you can not endorse a candidate by default. It's also not possible to vote AGAINST a candidate, you can only endorse a candidate by voting for them.

Is there a voting system ANYWHERE on the planet that allows a vote against someone that doesn't, at the same time, require you to vote for someone else?

29 posted on 10/30/2012 3:12:56 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade’s predictive accuracy approaches 1.0 the closer an election gets. It generally reaches 1.0 when the election is actually called (or the victor becomes apparent)

It also functions as ... a market. Go figure. That means the possibility of short selling.


30 posted on 10/30/2012 3:16:40 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: TexasGunLover
Impress, no, but I do have a clear conscience.

Yep. As you help your family into the cattle cars. Good shooting there Tex.
31 posted on 10/30/2012 3:19:30 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: TexasGunLover
I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

No way you are a native Texan.

Disgusting that anyone would do anything but vote to get rid of that cancer Obama. Embarrasing post.

32 posted on 10/30/2012 3:24:09 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks!)
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To: reaganaut1

why would you use intrade to tell you anything?


33 posted on 10/30/2012 3:28:56 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: PA Engineer; TexasGunLover

S/he already voted last week, so Praise God, there’s a majority of good Texans to fully assure the great state of Texas will go to Romney/Ryan, despite such willful contempt for voting against the evil Marxist by voting for Romney/Ryan.


34 posted on 10/30/2012 3:29:14 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TexasGunLover

and will you do proper grovelling on Nov 7 when you are proven wrong?


35 posted on 10/30/2012 3:31:11 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade will dramatically change right before the election, so yes, it’s manipulated.

Pay it NO attention.


36 posted on 10/30/2012 3:31:20 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TexasGunLover

if O wins you won’t


37 posted on 10/30/2012 3:33:37 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: reaganaut1

A lot of people holding Obama. It works like the stock market, gotta have a buyer to sell.


38 posted on 10/30/2012 3:34:26 PM PDT by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: TexasGunLover; mickie
".....but I do have a clear conscience."

You are SO morally superior to the rest of us saddled with more cloudy consciences.

I am properly humbled.

Leni

39 posted on 10/30/2012 3:38:12 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: TexasGunLover

No you don’t. If you did, you wouldn’t be here posting looking for validation.


40 posted on 10/30/2012 3:43:00 PM PDT by Double Tap
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