Posted on 10/18/2012 7:53:07 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Reading some of the polls on the presidential election can be confusing. But among the more reliable surveys two stand out as more well-grounded: Rasmussen and the Battle Ground Poll.
The latest Rasmussen survey of American’s partisan identification shows Party registrations as follows: 36.8% are Republican, 34.2% are Democrats and 29% are Independents.
There are no current surveys of how many Democrats will vote for Mitt Romney or how many Republicans will vote for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the latest George Washington University Battle Ground Poll shows Romney getting 92% of the Republican vote while Obama is getting just 87% of the Democrat vote.
Running Rasmussen’s number on registrations with the BattleGround Poll’s data we find Romney’s 92 % of Republicans’ gives him 33.856 points, and Obama’s 87% of Democrats’ gives him 29.754 points. Rasmussen says 29% of registered voters are Independents.
BattleGround poll says Independents support Romney 56/40. This results in 16.24 more points for Romney and 11.6 more points for Obama.
When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 – not very impressive until we consider Obama’s 41.354.
There are 8.556 points of “undecided” voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show at least 80% go with the challenger.
This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348 and. Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula Obama trails by 8.736 points.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means a guy doing a little research and using a $10.00 calculator produced as an aggregate score which is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.
Romney ….Republicans 92% …Obama 87% Democrats (from 90% in 2008) aren’t ..
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
AP just put out a story saying Romney is thinking of moving resources out of North Carolina into PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.
It also does not account for the “Dinkens effect” aka the “Bradley effect”.
An interesting calculation, but the POTUS isn’t decided by the popular vote.
The most optimistic electoral analysis I’ve seen has shown that Romney has to win one of these three states to win: WI, MI, OH. Obama has to win all three (WI, MI, OH). The analysis gave PA and NV to Obama and FL/VA/NC/NH/CO to Romney. Iowa is a toss-up, but only matters if an unexpected small state turns (like WV, CT or MN).
Which is largely myth at least today as 2008 showed. If I ascribe anything to it, maybe a half percentage point....and that’s generous.
I dont know if a bradley effect exists or not but, of the 23 major surveys conducted in the final days of the 2008 campaign, 17 overstated obama’s victory margin. 4 understated and 2 were spot on. So one could say that there may have been a “Bradley effect” but since obama’s margin of victory was so large it didnt really matter. in a tighter race a point or two may be the difference.
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
The national polls are a leading indicator of where the state will go. BTW my accuracy just pumped a full point. With Gallup’s new numbers this formula is now just 1.8 points off!
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