Talk of a close race makes Dems feel good but gaping enthusiasm gaps with key blocs speaks louder

coachisright.com ^ | October 16, 2912 | Derrick Hollenbeck, staff writer

[jmaroneps37]

Obama’s essential voting blocs have waning enthusiasm to vote next month and they are reporting this lack of excitement to pollsters around the country. … African Americans Hispanics and Young voters are substantially less likely to turnout to vote.

In accessing Obama’s situation the Left has fallen back to the straw man position of “Well of course Obama is winning among African Americans, Hispanics and Young voters.” ……but his winning these groups is a given. The question is how much will their winning margins help carry Obama total vote count?

“..survey shows Republican enthusiasm at 13 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm. No one is still insisting the Democrats have an edge in eagerness to get to the polls.

“….survey numbers tell the story. 2008 young voters assured pollsters right up to Election Day that 72% of them intended to vote and by 67/33 they would be voting for Obama. Well they did vote for Obama at that rate, but ultimately only 52% actually did vote.

This year just 63% are even saying they intend to vote, but only 50% of these young voters are currently registered to vote and they are reporting they will support Obama at the lesser rate of 57/35.

The Latino vote is quickly slipping away from Obama. In 2008 he got 67% of the Hispanic vote and a new survey from Florida shows Romney winning Hispanics there by 46/44.

Beyond this Hispanic voter registration nationwide fell by 600.000 between 2008 and 2010. Only 59% of Latinos report they are definitely going to vote which is a sharp drop from the 77% who promised to turn out in 2008.

Because the 77% in 2008 shrunk to an actual 50% there is room to believe that today’s 59% could slip to 40%.

[jmaroneps37]

When the numbers are pulled out of the Washington Post ABC poll as Rush read them off, Democrats are 8% less enthusiastic than they were in 2008, but Republicans are 30% more enthusiastic. Since the Gallup enthusiasm numbers were Democrat 70 and Republican 51 at this point in 2008, that means GOP enthusiasm is at 81% and Democrat enthusiasm is down to 62% for a 19 point spread. Even half of this is a knock out punch to Obama's hopes.

[comebacknewt]

And these numbers are from one of the most Obama-friendly polls out there.

Some of the other polls are even more brutal than these numbers.

[Tanniker Smith]

Well, sure, "close race" means you can steal it.

Some people realize, however, that close means manufacturing a million votes, which aint as easy as it sounds.

[sarasmom]

I don't think Liberals should count on the “youth vote” this time around.

From where I sit, I see them blaming their currently reduced circumstances on failed liberal ideology.

Some people get mugged early in life, and are not quite as naive as previous generations.