Please drop out after you blow through your last $12 million taking down Willard the Lib, and then join the winning team of conservatives to take out Obama, the other Lib in our way.
Thanks,
Signed: Your fellow conservatives
Posted on 02/18/2012 11:12:25 AM PST by parksstp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldElMZmVQSnhTQ09VWDMzLThTTC1sVFE
Bottom Line Numbers or Projection of the Number of Delegates prior to the RNC Convention based on the rules of all State Primary/Caucus contests:
Romney 971/42%
Santorum 823/36%
Gingrich 279/12%
Paul 95/4%
Unbound/Unccommitted: 117
Based on Current polling and projections, I’ve reviewed every state’s primary rules and simulated each contest based upon them. From what I have determined, it is highly likely that NO candidate will get to 1,144 by convention time unless something drastically happens (someone drops out, scandal, etc)
For Mitt Romney, even if all the remaining unbound/uncommitted Superdelegates endorse him, he will still fall about 54 delegates short of the required 1,144 for clinching the nomination.
Rick Santorum actually has a better shot at getting to 1,144. If Gingrich stays in, based on proportional rules, they will have 1,102 delegates between them. If Gingrich drops out, however, those delegates from the proportional contest most likely go to Santorum, whom if he can eclipse 50% in some state primaries and caucuses where majority results in WTA or a significant bonus, it will reduce Romney’s delegate totals. Santorum, then, would need about a third of the uncommitted vote to secure the nomination, which if they follow the vote of their respective state’s primary/caucus, is not unlikely. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com for explanation of the Caucus and primary rules.
In this scenario of a deadlocked convention, we have the following possibilities:
Mitt Romney’s Options
Option 1 – Offer the VP slot to Santorum or Gingrich. (Both however are likely to decline, but if Gingrich stays in, his total alone while small would be enough to push Romney over the 1,144 votes. There is really no incentive for either Gingrich or Santorum to do this because with a higher combined delegate total, they can hold out or make a better deal.
Option 2 – Offer the VP slot to Rand Paul (This would be to make a deal for Paul’s 95 delegates. However, based on projections, it appears Paul’s delegate total won’t be enough alone to push Romney over the top. Romney would need to convince another 3rd of the remaining Superdelegates to jump on board.
Option 3 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to help him be more conservative by adding her to the VP ticket (this will happen when I cash in that multi-million Powerball ticket)
Rick Santorum’s Options
Option 1 – Accept a VP slot from either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. (Unlikely, and would damage reputation as strong conservative)
Option 2 – Offer VP slot to Newt Gingrich (Remote possibility, but not out of the realm)
Option 3 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to join the ticket (Remote possibility, but not out of the realm)
Option 4 – Meet with Gingrich and determine either an acceptable running mate or a completely new ticket made up of two different individuals that both can accept (Something along the lines of this. Combined, they’ll have almost a near majority of the delegates, so if some deal can be made, it will be from these two)
Option 5 – Drop out at the convention and endorse Newt (yeah, this is what you do when you are projected to be about 600 delegates ahead. Not happening)
Newt Gingrich’s Options
Option 1 – Accept a VP slot from either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. (Tempting, not sure he wants to be second fiddle. With Romney, Gingrich might reason he can keep an eye on him, or with Santorum, Gingrich might reason he can mold him into some kind of leader. It wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for the elder statesman to take a VP slot (Biden, Cheney, Benson, etc).
Option 2 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to join the ticket (ah, what everyone on the Newt side wishes would happen. Here’s the problem with that though. Will this gain any of Romney or Paul’s delegates? Or how many of the remaining uncommitted delegates? The assumption is Santorum’s delegates would bolt to Newt after the first ballot, but I’m not seeing it in the numbers Gingrich thinks. I don’t think this deal would get him to 1,144. However, see Option 3:
Option 3: Plug Palin’s name for President, join her ticket as the VP (Now this one might have some life, and as I stated it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for the elder statesman to be on the lower end of the ticket.
Option 4: If not Palin, go find a popular VP choice and get them to endorse you, then present it at the convention. Most likely this would be Allen West, since he’s already on board, though Gingrich would like to grab Rubio.
Option 5: Offer the VP slot to Santorum (unlikely to accept since Santorum would be several hundred delegates ahead.
Option 6: Meet with Santorum and the two come up with a completely new ticket made up of two different individuals that both can agree on.
Option 7: Drop out and endrose Santorum. You've stayed in this long, why quit now?
Ron Paul’s Options
Option 1 – Sit back and wait for the deals to come. Accept whomever has the best one. Unlikely though he will be apart of any ticket.
Option 2 – Rand – If Romney offers VP slot to Rand, decide to accept/decline it. Highly probable Paul would accept and be able to give a speech to have his delegates support Romney on the bases of Rand. Yet, Romney would still need more Superdelegates to get over the hump.
Option 3 – Take your delegates and bolt the convention. Reducing Paul’s 95 delegates, would reduce the total number of delegates from 2,192 and make the required number of delegates needed to secure the nomination at 1,097.
Establishment Options
Option 1 – Screw the whole thing up and give us somebody nobody wants or rewrite the rules at the last minute to hand the nomination to Romney. Would you really be surprised by either method?
In theory, the only way to avoid a brokered convention is for Santorum/Gingrich to consolidate sometime during the primary season, with their pledged Superdelegates also consolidating. Doing this would give the one remaining in the race a 65-70% chance of securing the nomination by convention time.
FReepers from the various 57 states and territories, please review the spreadsheet and give me some more insight into these projections. Sources come from The Green Papers and how delegate allocation is done.
Also, to the Gingrich supporters who are bound to start an argument over the delegate allocation between he and Santorum, relax. The important thing in doing this projection was not determining their individual numbers, but trying to figure out whether or not Romney, along with a combination of Paul and Superdelegates could reach the 1,144 number alone. What's important is that the combined delegate numbers I've projected from each state for Santorum and Gingrich exceeds those numbers. Regardless of whether I have Santorum at 36 delegates and Newt 11 in a place like AL, the fact of the matter is those 47 delegates will go to them in some combination while Romney is unlikely to get any. Just keep that in mind when you review the spreadsheet and are looking at the state primary and caucus rules.
ping (or however they do it)
bfl
You’ve gone to a lot of work and it was certainly an interesting read but I cannot see projecting delegates all the way to the convention at this point. One small misstep by any candidate and one debate changing event can completely change the dynamics of the race. We have seen this occur several times so far.
I agree with your ultimate conclusion, however, a brokered convention is much more of a possibility than it was only a few weeks ao.
For those interested in input
Interesting. You’ve put a lot of work in your analysis.
Santorum may not make the ballot in Indiana. He fell short of having enough signatures in one district but is challenging based on signatures thrown out. Several people (8?) have issued challenges to him being on the ballot (several Paulites) and it will be decided on February 26 by the election commission. Unfortunately, the head of that commission is the co-chair for the Romney campaign in Indiana who won’t recuse himself.
Rabbit,
This is not so much a projection of how they will turn out as how they WOULD or COULD LIKELY turnout if there was no change to current candidate momentum and/or voter sentiment.
Or at least that is the way I take it.
Please drop out after you blow through your last $12 million taking down Willard the Lib, and then join the winning team of conservatives to take out Obama, the other Lib in our way.
Thanks,
Signed: Your fellow conservatives
Another increment of your hugely useful analysis! - Thanks
If the changes of the past week or two were projected to continue changing. (i.E if a state move 1% a week toward Gingrich then assume that trend will continue.) I believe Santorum’s numbers would show the landslide that he may yet establish.
We will see thought. We will see.
Saturday, February 18
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking
Santorum 35, Romney 29, Gingrich 13, Paul 11 Santorum +6
Gotcha. Like I said, it was an interesting read and does show the increased likelihood of a brokered convention — especially, as you point out, if we take things as they currently stand.
Carry on!
I applaud you effort, and I like the way you think! (it’s the same way I think...so go figure...)
My own thinking hasn’t expanded to factor Ron Paul in as much, so the idea of leveraging Rand is intriguing. He’s not well known and I suspect many just figure “like father, like son”, which I think is true to a point. I really liked what I read in Rand Paul’s budget proposal.
One other possibility might be to offer Ron Paul an important cabinet level position that I’d only slightly tongue-in-cheek call “Minister of Downsizing”. Something like an anti-Czar who would have authority to find and implements government reductions that could be accomplished by executive order. I think this would make conservatives insanely happy and drive liberals just plain insane. But it could leverage Ron Pauls strengths and his delegates and base without incurring the downside of some of his idiotic policy ideas. Harness him up and use him.
Good thinking too about Newt being willing to accept the “senior statesman” role as VP. I think this is not as far out as some may think, as he knows his own strengths and weaknesses better than anyone and I think he is driven more by a sense of history than by ego.
It’s good food for thought and thanks for your time putting this analysis together.
yeah, but it takes 75% (3 out of 4 votes) to kick him off the ballot, and the 2 Democrats on the Commission went on record as saying they have no intention of leaving him off the ballot.
I did not know that. Thanks!
FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
I seriously doubt that there will be a brokered convention. Group dynamics would probably prompt a lot of people to jump on board either Rick’s side or Mitt’s, depending upon which one surfaces in the lead after Super Tuesday. Whichever gets the momentum will likely ride to the nomination. (Note: I personally despise the idea of jumping on a leader’s bandwagon simply because he is the leader. I’ve never operated that way. But many people do.)
If I had to predict at this point, I would predict that Rick wins the nomination on the first ballot.
That gives the rural upstate counties almost as much weight as the larger cities (NYC in particular.) The "country-folk" are much more likely to vote Santorum or Gingrich than their city cousins.
There are 3 delegates per district. The winner in that district receives 2 and the second place finisher receives 1.
You may very well be aware of this in which case, never mind.
Nah, Feedback is always welcomed, thank you.
As for NY, I’m estimating here. From what I’ve seen at the Green Papers, it’s 2 delegates per each of the 29 CD’s, then the other 34 are allocated based on the statewide vote, but if the statewide winner gets 50%+, they get all 34.
NY is on the same day as PA, and my assumption is Santorum will spend a lot more time there because his chances winner there are a lot more than NY.
They way I broke NY down. I gave Romney 20 CD’s for 40 Delegates, Santorum 8 CD’s for 16, and 1 CD for Newt for 2. I assumed that Romney would probably get over 50% here and 34 more delegates, but if he doesn’t, then Santorum’s numbers would go up based on his voting percentage.
That’s how I got Rom -74 Sant - 16 Newt 2.
But IF Romney is held under 50%, it changes. Of the 34 delegates, they get allocated based on statewide percentage with a 20% Threshhold. So if Romney got 45%, Santorum 25% Newt 20%, the distribution would be 17 for Romney, 10 for Santorum, and 7 for Newt.
That would make the state totals Rom - 57, Sant 26, and Newt 9.
It all depends on what liberal NYC does.
Your numbers obviously reflect the Santorum blip, mine the thematic consistency of the Speakers candidacy. Note I've elected to publish via Scribd as opposed to Google.
I will pour over your numbers, assertions and comments and get back to you.
At first pass I'll say that I do not see the VP slot as an issue until post primary and for one do not wish nor look for Palins involvement.
Also, GOPe Option 1; being massaged as we speak.
At any rate is fodder for a good fight…
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.